Karsticles
Member
33 official33 officially announced characters. I wonder what the final number will be. Can't be much more than 33....can it?
+3 from Gematsu leak (Shulk, Chrom, Chorus Men)
+8 that are undoubtedly returning but haven't been officially announced (G&W, Captain Falcon, Falco, Ganondorf, Ice Climbers, Jigglypuff, Ness, and Wario)
44 is the minimum roster I think we are looking at. Then you have characters that may or may not return:
Snake
Wolf
Squirtle
Roy
R.O.B.
Mewtwo
Lucas
Young Link
Pichu
Ivysaur
Dr. Mario
Metaknight
Of these, the following have almost no chance of returning as fully-fledged characters:
Squirtle (replaced by Greninja)
Roy (Marth clone; didn't make it into Brawl - might get an alt. costume appearance)
Pichu (just a crappy Pikachu - no one cares about the character)
Dr. Mario (Mario clone - might get an alt. costume)
Young Link (replaced by Toon Link)
Ivysaur (may get replaced by another grass Pokemon from another generation)
That brings the list down to:
Metaknight (almost certain to return; a major character in Brawl both competitively and casually)
Lucas (apparently fighting a battle for his life right now; probably low priority as a clone)
Mewtwo (tons of fan support, and he was intended to return in Brawl)
R.O.B. (the retro surprise characters always stick around, it seems; likely to return)
Wolf (the only Star Fox villain, and we are getting a new Star Fox on the Wii U)
Snake (the only total ??? on here)
The "almost certainly returning" characters have been in at least 2 Smash games, which means they were not one-offs or fads. They are now core parts of the roster, and there is no way they are getting cut.
Looking at the second list of prospects, you have another potential 6 characters that will return, bringing the roster up to a theoretical 50.
TLDR Version:
44 is the minimum roster size right now based on the evidence at hand. 50+ is probable.