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Wii U US November Sales Estimated at 149K by Pachter

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Not

Banned
The Wii was, what, 6 years? By the time Zelda comes out in 2015, as many speculate, the WiiU will have been out nearly 2-3 years, 1/3-1/2 its life. It seems a little late to wait until then to decide how well it's doing.

Kart and Smash then.
 

Gartooth

Member
Mark my words, the next Metroid by Retro will be a 2D sidescroller. Who doesn't love Super Metroid?

Oh my god, enough with the fucking 2D platformers. Wii U is already drowning in them and we don't need them cannibalizing the sales of each other. Besides those kinds of games are beneath Retro and should be kept in the 90's. Here Nintendo has a unique western studio as an asset, and they put them on a fucking 2D platformer that any other developer owned by Nintendo can make. I'm not buying 2D fucking Metroid to support this and I can't wait to see when it is proven that 3D action-adventure Donkey Kong in space would have outsold it and catered to a demographic not already on Wii U.
hehehehehehe
 

Duxxy3

Member
I think it would be irresponsible to buy a wii u at this point. There is no guarantee that the system will still be on shelves in a year.

When it hits fire sale prices it would be ok to buy it. Same as other unique, but failed, items.

$300 for a last gen console that may be dead within months? That's a bad purchase. Better off spending $100 more for a true next gen system that will be around in 5 years.
 
Sarcasm and hyperbole/exaggeration. You missed the point
Someone predicted a few months ago that the WiiU would meet or exceed its yearly projection of 9 million, and Xbone and PS4 wouldn't even break 2 million each.

It's not always clear sometimes when hyperbole is tongue in cheek. :p
 
URGH... Are some people on here STILL preaching this 'worse than GameCube' line of deception!?

First, the Dreamcast was out in North America well after it had been on shelves in Japan. In turn, by the time that it launched, it had more games in its library. You can also see that it had a lower point of entry to ownership than the Wii U. The Dreamcast was the first 6th Generation home console to launch.

You can see very clearly in that graph that the GameCube also had a lower point of entry than the Wii U. The GameCube was the third 6th Generation home console to launch. When both price cuts came into play, their prices are HALF of what the Wii U is now, and that was in a better economic climate.

Skeleton Statistics won't cut it here (that is, simply quoting numbers without flesh/substance). To understand WHY the GameCube is doing better at this point, I'll leave this below:



I went into details about the growth of Nintendo IPs since the GameCube era in that post, but I feel that the above can cast some light on why the GameCube is faring better at a similar point. My position is the same as it's always been - that it needs more of the games that people want, and the biggest selling games (Smash Bros., Mario Kart) aren't there yet; However, I am not in the business of predicting numbers. Super Mario 3D World will continue to do well - However, one must note that the Mario & Luigi Bundle is currently the most popular, and that NSMBU saw a rise, too. I would imagine that there are enough Mario platform games for people to play should they bite now, and would say that those who bought that bundle, and other prospective buyers will most probably buy Super Mario 3D World at some point - This is why they are considered as 'Evergreen'. They might also want to play other games on it, so that they don't suffer from a Mario overload (for want of a better expression) - You can see in threads on here, that some new owners bought Pikmin 3 or The Wonderful 101, for example, and that those waiting to bite are asking for recommendations. There is a sense that its tide is making a turn - More positivity in Wii U-related articles, and a brighter change with regard to perceptions. To reinforce those statements, you can see in the Media Create threads of the last fortnight that following the release of Super Mario 3D World, its numbers picked up, and in the second week, those numbers continued to elevate. There are differences between complete disinterest (which isn't the case here), waiting for the games that you want (which IS happening - some are waiting for Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X, Smash Bros., Mario Kart 8, etc.), and waiting for the right time, whenever that may be, to bite (this could be when there are enough games that one wants to play to justify the purchase, or waiting for a $249 entry point, lots of possibilities here). It is important to differentiate between each, and I feel that time and time again, many fail to do this.

Also, Nintendo released a new LOZ game on the 3DS (According to Iwata, the 3DS is expected to lead Nintendo's drive for 2013-14), and Super Mario 3D World on the same day as the XBox One - that was 22nd November in North America. You had the PS4 launch a week before it, too. So, if we can agree that more or most people had bitten when SM3DWorld released, then one would have to look at what was achieved in the last nine days of that calendar month, and if the majority of units for November were sold in that time, it is actually rather remarkable for a console still with many cards to play, and in the face of two other console launches. I'm saying that a greater insight is needed here. I'm also saying that for a console with such cards available to it, it's in a better position than many on here think it is, and there is no reason for Nintendo to panic. They'll be fine. During its life, it can still hit a profitable $249 point of entry, then a profitable $199, and even a profitable point below that when it reaches its twilight years. It is worth noting that the PS360 consoles did not achieve a full recovery until 2011, some 5 and 6 years after their releases - So, writing off the Wii U at this point is not right or proper, in my opinion. I'm not in the business of predicting numbers. I'm not saying that it will rise to DS heights, and I'm not saying anything about 'winning' the 8th Generation, only that it is extremely misleading to say that it is doing worse than the GameCube, when it's very apparent that without its top cards, without notable support from other parties, and without a stronger marketing drive, it would've suffered a significantly worse fate at the same points.

Furthermore, Nintendo are a compassionate conservative company. They won't kill off the Wii U early, when they've just made a transition to HD game development to release a more powerful system, and potentially quadruple their development costs, which happened with first party studios on the PS4 at launch. They are in a position where a Wii U Fire Emblem game would be viable with sales of 700,000 units - that is profitable to a point of satisfactory return on investment, profitable, or, at worst, breaking even, all on a system showing noticeable steps. With this in mind, I suspect that they will stick with it for quite a while, because it's very much in their interests. Still, the GameCube didn't cease production after having played more of its cards, and it was there for over five years, so it is rotten, premature, fanboyist folly to declare 'death'. As for 'sold at a loss' - No. It has been known that one game makes the transaction profitable, and it won't be sold at a loss forever. Still, this loss is in the U.S. - $299 is NOT the same as €299, or in Britain, £249. They're in the business of making profits, so, where a loss is made, it is natural that they will raise that concern, as investors will want to make the greatest returns possible.

For more details on just how steep a decline would have to be to 'fail harder than the GameCube', I wrote this a while back. It's a lengthy post. Whatever. That's all that I'll write here.

djEMRNc.gif
 

bigmf

Member
Oh boy. If it's an over/under bet, I'll take the over but just because the under is too horrible to contemplate. Even if Pachter is off by double his largest error percentage so far, the number is still unbelievably low.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Why are so many people acting as if these numbers are 100% accurate?

He's not THAT bad at predicting numbers, and honestly, these numbers seem possible. Not likely mind you...but possible. And that's scary. And now we're discussing this pot full of crazy Nintendo's cooked up for us.
 
as I tried to post before I got rudely interrupted by GAF servers

I will not buy DK but a Metroid using that same engine would get a sale from me

I will be crushed if that happens. 2D /2.5D seems to be the safe defacto design choice, but I would personally love something that shows what a Prime-like title can do. Frankly, sen if it's just an HD remake of PRIME, I'll be happy.

It's almost cruel to tease metroid fans with the offering in NintendoLand. That was an AMAZING sample of what Metroid can be on the Wii U, and the controls were flawless.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
They better have a magic 3DS emulator ready for WiiU next year that upscales all 3DS content to 1080p and make it playable in WiiU.

Would buy one.

After this failure a Hybrid system has to be the next destination, Nintendos resources are thin compared to its competitors - having to split them between two so different systems is a disadvantage. Something like PS3 and PSV synergy where most engines run on both systems and make cross Plattform development easier would be good. If WiiU was the system were you could also play Luigis Mansion 2 or Fire Emblem in HD... A man can dream.
 

rjinaz

Member
Why are so many people acting as if these numbers are 100% accurate?

Because it's really not so hard to believe. Many people were predicting exactly this as well.

Nonetheless, it is true that some people are overreacting and should wait until Thursday when the actual numbers come out because this prediction means nothing and could in fact be way off.
 

Not

Banned
I think it would be irresponsible to buy a wii u at this point. There is no guarantee that the system will still be on shelves in a year.

When it hits fire sale prices it would be ok to buy it. Same as other unique, but failed, items.

$300 for a last gen console that may be dead within months? That's a bad purchase. Better off spending $100 more for a true next gen system that will be around in 5 years.

And miss out on some awesome Nintendo games coming in the next five years. That's a long freakin' time, no?
 

The Boat

Member
Oh my god, enough with the fucking 2D platformers. Wii U is already drowning in them and we don't need them cannibalizing the sales of each other. Besides those kinds of games are beneath Retro and should be kept in the 90's. Here Nintendo has a unique western studio as an asset, and they put them on a fucking 2D platformer that any other developer owned by Nintendo can make. I'm not buying 2D fucking Metroid to support this and I can't wait to see when it is proven that 3D action-adventure Donkey Kong in space would have outsold it and catered to a demographic not already on Wii U.
hehehehehehe

2D Metroid isn't exactly a 2D platformer, at least it's very far away from "regular" 2D platformers.
 
He's not THAT bad at predicting numbers, and honestly, these numbers seem possible. Not likely mind you...but possible. And that's scary. And now we're discussing this pot full of crazy Nintendo's cooked up for us.

Which doesn't really effect my question. It's still silly for people to act as if these are facts until they have been verified. I'm not calling Pachter's abilities into question, but he freely admits that they're ESTIMATES.

No one is acting like they are completely accurate. But the fact that he would estimate it so low is still worrying because it's a believable number.

That's incorrect.
Read the first page and note how many people are responding with. "Well, that's that! RIP!" based on estimates.
 

tipoo

Banned
150k would mean it was almost TRIPLED by the GC in a similar November post-launch period. That's sub-Dreamcast numbers.

xvyx.jpg


Yikes. The GC at least was cheaper and got frequent price cuts which probably helped it not get completley decimated.

$199, Nintendo. Come on.
 

Poona

Member
No, I mean the horse actually died during production.


The horse didn't die. The kid got injured by the horse in that scene though.

Edit: There's a site that I found on google called the neverending forums, that I've looked at before. Just search for something liked 'artax horse died'. You'll find out what happened.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
No one should be surprised by Wii U's performance really. I mean, we had all their other consoles indicate this was a very possible direction for sales to go. But the worrisome part is, is that Nintendo will see what was the real problem, as they've always have. They've always known exactly what kept their consoles from succeeding and instead of learning from their mistakes and rectifying any deficiencies, they decide to "be different", as if to defy expectations and market demands.

Like, if the issue was X with a console, then next iteration will do Y instead of providing X.

Super Nintendo didn't perform as well as the NES as there was less third party support because many saw Sega as a viable company to do business with.

Well, do we mend relations with them? Fuck no, they don't need no stinking CD's, carts it is motherfucker. Shits expensive. You're gonna pay for not supporting us.

Oh, wow, well Nintendo 64 didn't sell as well as the Playstation, or even its predecessor. I guess part of the problem was alienating third parties further and not projecting an image that was as cool as Sony. Guess we were not E.

Well, let's try mini-discs that are a fraction of the density of DVD and let's go ahead and market a purple purse.

This "different and defiant on purpose" strategy worked well with Wii, as it was a fad...but now they're right back at square one.

etc, etc
 
Which doesn't really effect my question. It's still silly for people to act as if these are facts until they have been verified. I'm not calling Pachter's abilities into question, but he freely admits that they're ESTIMATES.

As has been noted, he would have to be off by an entire order of magnitude for these sales to be anything less than awful, especially for those who were holding out hope that Mario would be the pudgy Italian savior of the beleaguered system. He essentially could be off the mark by twice as much as he's ever been on monthly hardware predictions and this would still be completely horrible news.

I suppose we should wait to see whether the news is fully catastrophic or just incredibly bad, but Nintendo certainly shouldn't be resting on their laurels with their fingers plugged into their ears. They've done quite enough of that as it stands.
 
Here in the midwest we're having the complete opposite of a heat wave. Maybe probably could have an effect on Wii U sales, we should at least wait till the weather warms up before writing it off.
 
I will be crushed if that happens. 2D /2.5D seems to be the safe defacto design choice, but I would personally love something that shows what a Prime-like title can do. Frankly, sen if it's just an HD remake of PRIME, I'll be happy.

It's almost cruel to tease metroid fans with the offering in NintendoLand. That was an AMAZING sample of what Metroid can be on the Wii U, and the controls were flawless.

*sigh* true HD PRIME looking something like Destiny?

You guys know these are E3 announcements

unless January Nintendo Direct is a megaton level event
 
URGH... Are some people on here STILL preaching this 'worse than GameCube' line of deception!?

(Dubious argumentation follows.)

It might be best to just wait and see how November officially pans out, but for the sake of discussion, let's assume that the November numbers wind up being pretty bad. We will have had: a follow up to smash hit New Super Mario Bros., a 3D Mario game, several party titles in the form of NintendoLand, Wii Party U, and Game & Wario (a genre that was the cornerstone of the Wii's breakout success), and Pikmin. There's also been trials of Wii Fit U and Wii Sports Club. The only real aces they have left to play are Mario Kart, Smash, and possibly Zelda if it comes out soon enough.

Basically, though I understand the point that it's worth noting that Nintendo's support hasn't been stellar, I don't understand the need for the clarification you are seeking. The GameCube performed relatively poorly. The Wii U is doing worse with worse support. I don't know what the point was of that lengthy argument you mounted was supposed to be. It seems weird to suggest that things are just getting started when there's only really 2 - 3 platform saviors we might expect over the next two years.

I've argued elsewhere that I can somewhat see people being optimistic about Kart given the Wii version's success. However, given just how poorly this entire year has gone, I'm not sure why one should assume that it's really going to be a significant gamechanger given how things have gone up 'til now. If things were simply holding steady at mediocre levels, I'd see an argument that it just needs its big hit. But we are on the precipice now of a disastrous November that saw the release of Mario 3D World -- a title some saw as potentially being such a breakout hit. And as I said earlier, other than assuming that there's some wild card we don't know about, there's not much in the way of a cavalry existing.

Other than that, the argument just seems to be that it's not fair to compare the Wii U to the GameCube simply because the Wii U has been handled so poorly for a year now. That's fine, I suppose, but it doesn't make for a terribly compelling argument in my book in terms of trying to understand why the situation will improve. If this holiday doesn't prove promising, I feel like all hopes would be on something like a ludicrous price drop to coincide with Kart. Otherwise, what about 2014 would lead someone to think it'll be significantly more promising than 2013? What need is there to add qualifiers to try and explain why poor sales relative to the GameCube are acceptable?
 

oneils

Member
150k in one month isnt great by any means but its still selling consoles... nintendo prob wants something like 500k tho right?

I think nintendo's expectation was 9 million this year? So 750K a month? Don't have a citation.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Here in the midwest we're having the complete opposite of a heat wave. Maybe probably could have an effect on Wii U sales, we should at least wait till the weather warms up before writing it off.

I think this whole issue with Global Warming should be resolved first by our species before writing off the Wii U.
 

apana

Member
No one should be surprised by Wii U's performance really. I mean, we had all their other consoles indicate this was a very possible direction for sales to go. But the worrisome part is, is that Nintendo will see what was the real problem, as they've always have. They've always known exactly what kept their consoles from succeeding and instead of learning from their mistakes and rectifying any deficiencies, they decide to "be different", as if to defy expectations and market demands.

Like, if the issue was X with a console, then next iteration will do Y instead of providing X.

Super Nintendo didn't perform as well as the NES as there was less third party support because many saw Sega as a viable company to do business with.

Well, do we mend relations with them? Fuck no, they don't need no stinking CD's, carts it is motherfucker. Shits expensive. You're gonna pay for not support us.

Oh, wow, well Nintendo 64 didn't sell as well as the Playstation, or even its predecessor. I guess part of the problem was alienating third parties further and not projecting an image that was as cool as Sony. Guess we were not E.

Well, let's try mini-discs that are a fraction of the density of DVD and let's go ahead and market a purple purse.

This "different and defiant on purpose" strategy worked well with Wii, as it was a fad...but now they're right back at square one.

etc, etc

I don't mind them doing their own thing. That can have incredible benefits like with the Wii. What I dislike is them refusing to follow some basic standards that other competitors set. Having long periods where no major games are released on your console is not creative or being different, it is just shitty management. You also can't act like you discovered some revolution in gaming and then just give up on it like five years later. What does that say about the company?
 

bigmf

Member
I think everyone is aware that Pachter's prediction is wrong. But even if the Wii U sold double what he said, it still paints an exceedingly bleak picture for the Wii U.
 

Busty

Banned
I don't mind them doing their own thing. That can have incredible benefits like with the Wii. What I dislike is them refusing to follow some basic standards that other competitors set. Having long periods where no major games are released on your console is not creative or being different, it is just shitty management. You also can't act like you discovered some revolution in gaming and then just give up on it like five years later. What does that say about the company?

That they are either totally indifferent or already mentally retreating from the home console space. Seriously I know I sound like a broken record but Nintendo seem to have such apathy for the WiiU it's as if it's a chore to even have their name on it.

I feel like at this point the only explanation is that Nintendo might be transitioning somehow. I don't mean that as some cloaked 'Nintendo is doomed' 'Mario for iPhone' post but how Nintendo could expect to compete with MS and Sony with the meagre effort they put into the WiiU thus far is baffling.
 

Gartooth

Member
2D Metroid isn't exactly a 2D platformer, at least it's very far away from "regular" 2D platformers.

2D game, 2D platforming segments. The lengths the anti-DK people went to to support their dream of a new Retro Metroid/IP is exactly what I was pointing out in my post. 2D DK gets announced? Burn down Retro's name and call Nintendo fucking morons for adding another 2D game to the Wii U lineup, but make a 2D Metroid and I'm sure the current attitude would have been much different considering how requested the game is here. It is a moronic double standard here and I felt like calling it out. I would rather people just say they are sick of DK and would rather have Metroid than to go through great lengths to try and persuade people that it was a strategically bad move for Nintendo.
 

prag16

Banned
150k in November is astonishingly bad.

Yes it would be. It needs 300k to be at all respectable. And that'd still be poor sales.

Sourcez don't agree with Pachter. We'll see which BS artist is correct. At least Pachter doesn't try to pass off his figures as "real". -_-

What if Pachter is overestimating? Is sub 100K possible?

No real chance of that. Sub 200k? unfortunately I don't think we can really rule that out. :(
 
As has been noted, he would have to be off by an entire order of magnitude for these sales to be anything less than awful

Agreed, and that's also a possibility. But when people are already saying that the mention of an estimate is enough to dissuade them in buying a console, that seems a bit rash.

It's possible (even likely) that he's correct, but that doesn't change facts. It doesn't seem rational to act as though these numbers are confirmed when they're not.
 

oneils

Member
As I posted in the other thread:



The average GAFfer makes better predictions than Pachter.

I don't see how this chart tells us anything. He could be 64 out of 72, but what if he was only off by 5%? Also, the people making the predictions are probably not your "average" gaffer.
 

Busty

Banned
What if Pachter is overestimating? Is sub 100K possible?

If the WiiU sold under 100k for November GAF would literally burst into flames obliterating everything. I alone would roam the desolate, torched wasteland that would be the Gaming forum in a beach buggy with a German shepard which is wearing goggles, in the passenger seat.
 
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