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[Lexxism]

To be honest with how things going with WiiU, I don't really expect anything from it sales wise. All I can ask from Nintendo is to give their WiiU owners a great selection of games.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Just because it's a worse situation doesn't mean that they shouldn't try.

They should make a smart decision, not just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks. If a rebranding won't make any significant difference, then it's a waste of resources.

 

[Mononoke]

The thing is...when you say "normal", it implies that Nintendo was a failing company with the N64 and GameCube. Except the N64 sold 33 million WW sales, which looks pathetic compared to Sony's 102 million WW...but actually pretty damned good compared to Sega's 9 million. The "awful" GameCube sales consist of a system basically only doing 21 million worldwide, so in comparison to Sony's monstrous 155 million sales for the PS2, Nintendo should've died that gen. But then Microsoft's XBox only beat Nintendo's system by a mere 3 million consoles, ending with 24 million consoles sold worldwide.

The reality is: Sony's ridiculous sales were always an outlier compared to their competitors. It was only with this seventh generation that there were no "clear losers", as all three console developers exceeded 75 million consoles sold worldwide.

Is the Wii U a miserable failure? Yep. But here's the thing: Nintendo's still profitable. Meanwhile several times it's been brought up that Microsoft has considered cutting the XBox brand (which has only now started to turn a profit) loose. And Sony? The only good news comes from the video game division; Sony articles that don't center around the word "Playstation" tend to be rather dark.

Either way, people thinking Nintendo will cut their losses with the Wii U this early are kidding themselves. But if you're one of the people who think the Wii3 will probably make an appearance at E3 2016 (for a release that holiday), well....I'd say the chances of you being right are increasing by the day.

Er I just meant that they were on a trajectory path. To me, this is what I actually expected the numbers to be after the Gamecube. They just happened to be the first to something insanely profitable with the Wii (motion controls, and tapping into that casual market).

I guess the question then is, can Nintendo be the first at something that will blow up again? I think the issue is, you can't really run a company like that. There needs to be more consistency across gens/products. So to me, this is returning back to "normal" or rather what their trajectory path seemed to be had they just made another console that didn't tap into an outside demographic.

 

[DragonSworne]

Time to stop producing Wii U units, Nintendo. You've made enough to last the generation.

 

[Lebon14]

Even though I have become a fan of the Wii U, please don't do this Lebon. The tide was suppose to change with Pikmin, then it was Wonderful 101, then it was Zelda, then it was Mario 3D World. The Wii U isn't going to make a come back and if you're a fan of the Wii U strictly for Nintendo games that is ok. But let's not make an argument that this system can make a comeback. It's not going to saleswise. I can't wait for Mario Kart 8, Smash, Zelda, and whatever other surprises Nintendo has in store for the system but in terms of sales? It's not going to be pretty.

WW was a remake. All we know about the "new" Zelda is that it's in the making and that we'll have a preview at next E3.

I personally never believed in W101 being a "savior" or WW. I had some hope for pikmin but eh... I didn't.

I personally believed everything crashed when EAD unveiled 3D World (major disappointment) and that Retro was working on another DKC (another disappointment - but they wanted to work on it, so...). I agree that they never put their chances on their side but I still believe that they can manage somehow. Call it "blind hope", that's what I believe.

Even if its wrong, if the number is under 500K this system is in big trouble. Mario Kart 8 and Smash Brothers will not turn the tide.

Maybe Cranky can? Joke aside, I'm still positive that maybe, they'll help a little. Not instant turn over but over the months. I also but can't help myself to blame the devloppers for being lazy because the console is as capable as the new ones, despite everything that has been said.

I've been on Nintendo's side during all of my 26 years of existence. It's hard for me to stay positive and I'm trying to convince myself that next year's game will help in some way or another. Also, I'm willing to believe only the official number and not from a guy with bad rep.

(P.S I have ZERO interest in the competitors offers... it's just not appealing to me. If there's something that caches my eyes, most of the time, it's multiplatform and my PC is good enough to play 99% of today's games in a decent quality).

(P.P.S Nobody got my reference in my original post )

 

[Smiles and Cries]

so when does this bomb drop on us NPD I mean?

 

[Anth0ny]

They're not going to discontinue Wii U before 2016. They can limp by with the currently announced lineup for the next two years... But even GameCube numbers are looking increasingly unrealistic. This thing will probably sell no more than 15 million units when it's all said and done.

That is a DISASTER.

 

[KennyLinder]

Nintendo are fucking old fashioned dick heads, even down to Reggie at VGX. He pretty much slipped about Metroid, so why the fuck didn't they just announce it!? Even just a 20s pre-rendered clip like what ND did for PS4 Uncharted!? Would of got the hype going a bit, but instead it's just his usual bullshit comments of "You always want more, Geoff!" Yeah, because you never fucking tell anyone anything , that's why!!

Fucking Cranky Kong (..will be cool but FFS).

 

[Aquamarine]

so when does this bomb drop on us NPD I mean?

NPD releases December 12th, after market close (PR releases around 5:30-6:30 PM EST, but we won't get leaks until later or possibly the next day).

 

[Mauricio_Magus]

Nintendo are fucking old fashioned dick heads, even down to Reggie at VGX. He pretty much slipped about Metroid, so why the fuck didn't they just announce it!? Even just a 20s pre-rendered clip like what ND did for PS4 Uncharted!? Would of got the hype going a bit, but instead it's just his usual bullshit comments of "You always want more, Geoff!" Yeah, because you never fucking tell anyone anything , that's why!!

Fucking Cranky Kong (..will be cool but FFS).

He leaked Fire Emblem by accident once! haha

 

[KennyLinder]

They're not going to discontinue Wii U before 2016. They can limp by with the currently announced lineup for the next two years... But even GameCube numbers are looking increasingly unrealistic. This thing will probably sell no more than 15 million units when it's all said and done.

That is a DISASTER.

Well Wii U is basically their modern day Virtual Boy, so who knows what Nintendo will do with it.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Watch it sell 3 million. More crow eaten than Mario 3dWorld.

These aren't confirmed numbers

 

[Smiles and Cries]

To be honest with how things going with WiiU, I don't really expect anything from it sales wise. All I can ask from Nintendo is to give their WiiU owners a great selection of games.

if these numbers are true I would at least hope that Nintendo gives the Wii U the Vita treatment, meaning the platform is still around for the next few years and allow the games to come in

I want my X that is all I need then you may kill it off

 

[AstroNut325]

Not really.

His predictions are way off in months that Wii U sold better (except november 2012 but that's was easy to predict because of Nintendo press release).

Nope. Based on the updated post by Aquamarine the highest disparity on the under-predicted months is approximately 72%. Let's say he is off by 200%... that is still abysmal for a system in November!

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

This just seems impossible.

 

[evilromero]

URGH... Are some people on here STILL preaching this 'worse than GameCube' line of deception!?

First, the Dreamcast was out in North America well after it had been on shelves in Japan. In turn, by the time that it launched, it had more games in its library. You can also see that it had a lower point of entry to ownership than the Wii U. The Dreamcast was the first 6th Generation home console to launch.

You can see very clearly in that graph that the GameCube also had a lower point of entry than the Wii U. The GameCube was the third 6th Generation home console to launch. When both price cuts came into play, their prices are HALF of what the Wii U is now, and that was in a better economic climate.

Skeleton Statistics won't cut it here (that is, simply quoting numbers without flesh/substance). To understand WHY the GameCube is doing better at this point, I'll leave this below:



I went into details about the growth of Nintendo IPs since the GameCube era in that post, but I feel that the above can cast some light on why the GameCube is faring better at a similar point. My position is the same as it's always been - that it needs more of the games that people want, and the biggest selling games (Smash Bros., Mario Kart) aren't there yet; However, I am not in the business of predicting numbers. Super Mario 3D World will continue to do well - However, one must note that the Mario & Luigi Bundle is currently the most popular, and that NSMBU saw a rise, too. I would imagine that there are enough Mario platform games for people to play should they bite now, and would say that those who bought that bundle, and other prospective buyers will most probably buy Super Mario 3D World at some point - This is why they are considered as 'Evergreen'. They might also want to play other games on it, so that they don't suffer from a Mario overload (for want of a better expression) - You can see in threads on here, that some new owners bought Pikmin 3 or The Wonderful 101, for example, and that those waiting to bite are asking for recommendations. There is a sense that its tide is making a turn - More positivity in Wii U-related articles, and a brighter change with regard to perceptions. To reinforce those statements, you can see in the Media Create threads of the last fortnight that following the release of Super Mario 3D World, its numbers picked up, and in the second week, those numbers continued to elevate.

Also, Nintendo released a new LOZ game on the 3DS (According to Iwata, the 3DS is expected to lead Nintendo's drive for 2013-14), and Super Mario 3D World on the same day as the XBox One - that was 22nd November in North America. You had the PS4 launch a week before it, too. So, if we can agree that more or most people had bitten when SM3DWorld released, then one would have to look at what was achieved in the last nine days of that calendar month, and if the majority of units for November were sold in that time, it is actually rather remarkable for a console still with many cards to play, and in the face of two other console launches. I'm saying that a greater insight is needed here. I'm also saying that for a console with such cards available to it, it's in a better position than many on here think it is, and there is no reason for Nintendo to panic. They'll be fine. During its life, it can still hit a profitable $249 point of entry, then a profitable $199, and even a profitable point below that when it reaches its twilight years. It is worth noting that the PS360 consoles did not achieve a full recovery until 2011, some 5 and 6 years after their releases - So, writing off the Wii U at this point is not right or proper, in my opinion. I'm not in the business of predicting numbers. I'm not saying that it will rise to DS heights, and I'm not saying anything about 'winning' the 8th Generation, only that it is extremely misleading to say that it is doing worse than the GameCube, when it's very apparent that without its top cards, without notable support from other parties, and without a stronger marketing drive, it would've suffered a significantly worse fate at the same points.

Furthermore, Nintendo are a compassionate conservative company. They won't kill off the Wii U early, when they've just made a transition to HD game development to release a more powerful system, and potentially quadruple their development costs, which happened with first party studios on the PS4 at launch. They are in a position where a Wii U Fire Emblem game would be viable with sales of 700,000 units - that is profitable to a point of satisfactory return on investment, profitable, or, at worst, breaking even, all on a system showing noticeable steps. With this in mind, I suspect that they will stick with it for quite a while, because it's very much in their interests. Still, the GameCube didn't cease production after having played more of its cards, and it was there for over five years, so it is rotten, premature, fanboyist folly to declare 'death'. As for 'sold at a loss' - No. It has been known that one game makes the transaction profitable, and it won't be sold at a loss forever. Still, this loss is in the U.S. - $299 is NOT the same as €299, or in Britain, £249. They're in the business of making profits, so, where a loss is made, it is natural that they will raise that concern, as investors will want to make the greatest returns possible.

For more details on just how steep a decline would have to be to 'fail harder than the GameCube', I wrote this a while back. It's a lengthy post. Whatever. That's all that I'll write here.

This is strange. Are you trying to justify just how bad the situation is for the Wii U? Question, were you alive when Nintendo released the Virtual Boy? Were they a compassionate company then? No. And the truth is they have a BAD product on their hands now. Traditionally Nintendo consoles and systems sell very well during this time frame.

And you argued price was an issue. Well, tell that to all of the people who bought XBOs and PS4s in droves. And those still don't have a large library of killer games. Why didn't people rush out and do the same for the Wii U last year?

You can't try to argue a one-sided losing case. Nintendo's 2014 will be absolutely punishing. November was their chance to seize an opportunity to move a lot of consoles and if this prediction turns out to be true, then they failed.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Nintendo are fucking old fashioned dick heads, even down to Reggie at VGX. He pretty much slipped about Metroid, so why the fuck didn't they just announce it!? Even just a 20s pre-rendered clip like what ND did for PS4 Uncharted!? Would of got the hype going a bit, but instead it's just his usual bullshit comments of "You always want more, Geoff!" Yeah, because you never fucking tell anyone anything , that's why!!

Fucking Cranky Kong (..will be cool but FFS).

Mark my words, the next Metroid by Retro will be a 2D sidescroller. Who doesn't love Super Metroid?

 

[Busty]

Much like a TV network giving a struggling show (such as Fringe for example) a final season to 'say goodbye' Nintendo should announce that the WiiU is their final 'home console' and just watch the cash roll in.

It might sound reactionary but where does the WiiU and indeed Nintendo go from here? Trying to compete directly with MS and Sony is never going to work and the Wii fad has now firmly passed them by. So unless they have another inspired Wii esque innovation up their sleeves I honestly can't see where they fit in the home console space.

All this talk of scrapping the WiiU and starting again with a 'next gen' offering in 2015 is nonsense. As the WiiU dies IMHO it takes Nintendo, as a home console competitor to MS and Sony with it. The company will continue to roll in cash from it's handhelds etc.

 

[outunderthestars]

They're not going to discontinue Wii U before 2016. They can limp by with the currently announced lineup for the next two years... But even GameCube numbers are looking increasingly unrealistic. This thing will probably sell no more than 15 million units when it's all said and done.

That is a DISASTER.

I could see them launch a new "third pillar" system with the hopes of generating new revenue and quietly putting the "Wii U" out to pasture.

Watch it sell 3 million. More crow eaten than Mario 3dWorld.

These aren't confirmed numbers

bookmarked for future reference.

 

[Caffeine]

i expect the wii u to sell well this christmas wishful thinking

 

[Ferrio]

i expect the wii u to sell well this christmas wishful thinking

November is when people do xmas shopping...

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Hey Amir0x

 

[Randolph Freelander]

This just seems impossible.

Pachter used to bullseye womp rats in his T-16 back home, though.

 

[JoeM86]

They should make a smart decision, not just throw shit at the wall and see what sticks. If a rebranding won't make any significant difference, then it's a waste of resources.

Dropping it would be a bigger waste of resources

 

[Smiles and Cries]

NPD releases December 12th, after market close (PR releases around 5:30-6:30 PM EST, but we won't get leaks until later or possibly the next day).

thank you!

now to prep my shelter

 

[Imperfected]

Is the Wii U a miserable failure? Yep. But here's the thing: Nintendo's still profitable. Meanwhile several times it's been brought up that Microsoft has considered cutting the XBox brand (which has only now started to turn a profit) loose.

You do realize Nintendo has been posting its first operating losses in a decade, right? And that even those are substantially worse than they look on paper due to favorable exchange rates making their income look better than their physical sales support?

I'm honestly curious. I get the feeling this is the first you've heard of it.

 

[outunderthestars]

thank you!

now to prep my shelter

Will make for a fun Friday the 13th.....

 

[Vlade]

I still fail to see how the Wii U is doing worse than the GameCube or the original Xbox worldwide even tho I have been told repeatedly that this is the end.

Even if the Wii U is a bad gen sales-wise for Nintendo, it can still be a hella good time.

 

[freenudemacusers]

You do realize Nintendo has been posting its first operating losses in a decade, right? And that even those are substantially worse than they look on paper due to favorable exchange rates making their income look better than their physical sales support?

I'm honestly curious. I get the feeling this is the first you've heard of it.

the yen issue isn't nintendo's fault, that's an external problem. be nice to them. :'(

 

[Ansatz]

Mark my words, the next Metroid by Retro will be a 2D sidescroller. Who doesn't love Super Metroid?

No that's EAD Tokyo's secret project.

I doubt Nintendo will greenlight a second wave Wii U game at this point, especially big budget. Retro will release the trilogy in HD and then move on to whatever hardware future Nintendo is planning to be there at/near launch. Same with the next 3D Mario.

 

[daakusedo]

He pretty much slipped about Metroid, so why the fuck didn't they just announce it!? Even just a 20s pre-rendered clip like what ND did for PS4 Uncharted!?

Probably because they're not doing it at the moment but nintendo sure like to point that it's likely retro will be at it again. And again I hope not.

 

[Palette Swap]

Watch it sell 3 million. More crow eaten than Mario 3dWorld.

These aren't confirmed numbers

Ugh. Now people will remember that dude with the chibiterasu avatar as being off his meds. Thanks a lot !

 

[ab.aeterno]

Furthermore, Nintendo are a compassionate conservative company.

What does this mean? They're a business trying to make money, not operating out of the goodness of their hearts.

They won't kill off the Wii U early, when they've just made a transition to HD game development to release a more powerful system, and potentially quadruple their development costs, which happened with first party studios on the PS4 at launch.

Got a source for that?

As for 'sold at a loss' - No. It has been known that one game makes the transaction profitable, and it won't be sold at a loss forever.

Isn't that a contradiction? Besides, when people say they're taking a loss, they mean per hardware unit sold. That's not accounting for a game to offset the loss, it's strictly speaking to the loss per unit, which as you've said, is in fact occurring. This comes off as disingenuous at best.

 

[evilromero]

No that's EAD Tokyo's secret project.

I doubt Nintendo will greenlight a second wave Wii U game at this point, especially big budget. Retro will release the trilogy in HD and then move on to whatever hardware future Nintendo is planning to be there at/near launch. Same with the next 3D Mario.

So should we expect the token Kirby game on Wii U next year?

 

[Fox Mulder]

They're not going to discontinue Wii U before 2016. They can limp by with the currently announced lineup for the next two years... But even GameCube numbers are looking increasingly unrealistic. This thing will probably sell no more than 15 million units when it's all said and done.

That is a DISASTER.

I think waiting until 2016 to move on from a horribly selling console is awful.

the Wii fell off hard like a year before the wiiu came out, so I wonder what around 5 years of insignificance could do to them.

I've loved Nintendo games my whole life, so it sucks seeing them in this position. It's 100% their fault though.

 

[Seik]

I really, really, hope there's will be better numbers than this.

Welp, we'll all know soon enough.

 

[outunderthestars]

Ugh. Now people will remember that dude with the chibiterasu avatar as being off his meds. Thanks a lot !

Ha! For a second I thought you were talking to yourself.

 

[Dysun]

*clears throat* "I think its stupid that people are writing off the system because of a poor holiday when Nintendo hasn't even released its mega hits like Mario Kart, Smash Bros., Zelda, Bayonetta 2, Fucking Donkey Kong, and Steel Diver 2: Electric Boogaloo. I'm tired of the stupid, short-sighted, biased opinions against Nintendo. If you would for a moment not buy into the conspiracy against Nintendo perpetrated by third parties, you would see it has an incredibly bright future ahead of it. Its just so stupid".

This post is too real, bravo

 

[Aquamarine]

You do realize Nintendo has been posting its first operating losses in a decade, right? And that even those are substantially worse than they look on paper due to favorable exchange rates making their income look better than their physical sales support?

I'm honestly curious. I get the feeling this is the first you've heard of it.

For the six months ending September 30th, 2013:

Gross Profit: 62.042 billion JPY
Foreign Exchange Gains: 18.360 billion JPY
Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses: 85.321 billion JPY

 

[Zombie James]

Is there some historical context for this? What was the worst November for the Gamecube/Xbox/etc?

 

[Chozolore]

They should get Minecraft on it, or has MS got exclusivity on that as well? It's a good match..

 

[Mauricio_Magus]

*clears throat* "I think its stupid that people are writing off the system because of a poor holiday when Nintendo hasn't even released its mega hits like Mario Kart, Smash Bros., Zelda, Bayonetta 2, Fucking Donkey Kong, and Steel Diver 2: Electric Boogaloo. I'm tired of the stupid, short-sighted, biased opinions against Nintendo. If you would for a moment not buy into the conspiracy against Nintendo perpetrated by third parties, you would see it has an incredibly bright future ahead of it. Its just so stupid".

GotY 2015

 

[Aquamarine]

Is there some historical context for this? What was the worst November for the Gamecube/Xbox/etc?

It's already been posted.

I compiled the data for another thread:

In honor of this historic month, I've compiled a full list of November (Black Friday) performances throughout the decades to compare performances to.

Note: these numbers only represent the console in its prime (1996-present), and don't contain the November that the console launched in (because so many of these consoles have November launches).


November (Black Friday) month comparisons (post-launch year, 1996-present):


Sony:

344K (PS1, November 1996)
860K (PS1, November 1997)
977K (PS1, November 1998)
827K (PS1, November 1999)

909K (PS2, November 2001)
1284K (PS2, November 2002)
837K (PS2, November 2003)
696K (PS2, November 2004)
531K (PS2, November 2005)

466K (PS3, November 2007)
378K (PS3, November 2008)
710K (PS3, November 2009)
530K (PS3, November 2010)
894K (PS3, November 2011)
762K (PS3, November 2012)

Lowest month: 344K (PS1, November 1996)
Highest month: 1284K (PS2, November 2002)


Microsoft:

467K (Xbox, November 2002)
462K (Xbox, November 2003)
708K (Xbox, November 2004)

511K (360, November 2006)
770K (360, November 2007)
836K (360, November 2008)
820K (360, November 2009)
1374K (360, November 2010)
1688K (360, November 2011)
1259K (360, November 2012)

Lowest month: 462K (Xbox, November 2003)
Highest month: 1688K (360, November 2011)


Sega:

96K (Saturn, November 1996)

245K (Dreamcast, November 1999)
192K (Dreamcast, November 2000)
259K (Dreamcast, November 2001)

Lowest month: 92K (Saturn, November 1996)
Highest month: 259K (Dreamcast, November 2001)


Nintendo:

764K (N64, November 1997)
718K (N64, November 1998)
465K (N64, November 1999)
275K (N64, November 2000)

424K (GameCube, November 2002)
751K (GameCube, November 2003)
350K (GameCube, November 2004)
272K (GameCube, November 2005)

981K (Wii, November 2007)
2040K (Wii, November 2008)
1260K (Wii, November 2009)
1270K (Wii, November 2010)
863K (Wii, November 2011)
420K (Wii, November 2012)

Lowest month: 272K (GameCube, November 2005)
Highest month: 2040K (Wii, November 2008)

 

[Ninja Scooter]

They should get Minecraft on it, or has MS got exclusivity on that as well? It's a good match..

You can get Minecraft on your phone. It's a little late to care about Minecraft being this huge system seller. They need to have foresight, figure out what the NEXT minecraft is, and try and get that.

 

[Not]

I don't know. I feel like the 3DS was in this exact same position. After Kart, Smash, and Zelda, let's talk.

 

[Ansatz]

So should we expect the token Kirby game on Wii U next year?

2015, yes.

2014 potentially has DKC, Smash, Kart, X, Bayonetta 2, Wii Sports Club, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Yoshi Yarn, Miyamoto new IP, third Sonic game, Mario Sunshine HD and perhaps that Fire emblem crossover.

 

[NTIETS13A_Superiority]

People should not think too much about what Patcher says... next npd will be interesting regardless.

 

[Hyperactivity]

I could see them launch a new "third pillar" system with the hopes of generating new revenue and quietly putting the "Wii U" out to pasture.



bookmarked for future reference.

Sarcasm and hyperbole/exaggeration. You missed the point

Ugh. Now people will remember that dude with the chibiterasu avatar as being off his meds. Thanks a lot !

Thanks. Read my above line. My point wasn't the 3 million numbers which I randomly made, it was that these aren't confirmed numbers and people are acting like they are. But if you want to be unecessarily rude and condesending, go ahead

 

[ab.aeterno]

I don't know. I feel like the 3DS was in this exact same position. After Kart, Smash, and Zelda, let's talk.

The Wii was, what, 6 years? By the time Zelda comes out in 2015, as many speculate, the WiiU will have been out nearly 2-3 years, 1/3-1/2 its life. It seems a little late to wait until then to decide how well it's doing.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Man, my daughter cried so hard when she saw this last week (the film, not the gif *g*)

Didn't the horse actually die during that scene too?

Like it actually got stuck and drowned.

OT:

What was Nintendo thinking? Why would they release another console that will get the shit end of the stick when it comes to multiplatform games, the lifeblood of any console.

They lost their casual market because of mobile gaming and they lost their hardcore base because they can't play the games they want to play.

You Dun goofed Nintendo.