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[Grampa Simpson]

That is also to say that MS will not be able to pull some magic tricks next year either. They could possibly pull a $179 Arcade by the fall and a $250 premium.

I'd think that they'd be able to flatten their SKU's down to just the arcade as well. Move the hard drives to accessory status, and pack in cables for more situations with the new SKU. Keep it at $199 to make up for the cable difference.

 

[duk]

Do you really think the PS3 won't get a price drop next year ?

u missed his point, your question should have been directed at Private Hoffman.

 

[Death Dealer]

but who knows if Sony will actually able to afford a full $100 next year. That is also to say that MS will not be able to pull some magic tricks next year either. They could possibly pull a $179 Arcade by the fall and a $250 premium.

A $300 PS3, a $250 premium and a $179 arcade is more advantageous to Sony than current pricing IMO.

 

[Azelover]

MS can still pull the same trick again next gen and Sony really does not have the resources to cut them off. Wii Lightning could strike twice, this time for Sony next gen, of course. Anything's possible. But it's got to be a rough position to be in.

They don't have the resources to do "Wii Lightning" as you call it. But if you want to believe that as use it as an argument, then be my guest. A lot of companies will try to replicate the Wii and what you call "Wii Lightning", do you know how many will succeed? None.

 

[H_Prestige]

I'd think that they'd be able to flatten their SKU's down to just the arcade as well. Move the hard drives to accessory status, and pack in cables for more situations with the new SKU. Keep it at $199 to make up for the cable difference.

They might as well. Isn't the arcade dominating the other models right now? They could just axe the other two and offer an arcade in both colors.

 

[Death Dealer]

u missed his point, your question should have been directed at Private Hoffman.

His point being Hoffman shouldn't have used the qualifier ? Sorry I'm just not up with the neogaf ways.

 

[FrankT]

A $300 PS3, a $250 premium and a $179 arcade is more advantageous to Sony than current pricing IMO.

A bit yea. Again, that is if Sony can actually pull a $100 off the top of each next year. Big if, and the scenario can play a few different ways. It also depends on how much of hype train each company can create during the key holiday quarter. Cutting into that growing lead in 09 is going to be a tough cookie.

 

[Calcaneus]

You know, distant third or not, if the games keep coming like they have I'm totally fine with this gen.

 

[Kolgar]

They might as well. Isn't the arcade dominating the other models right now? They could just axe the other two and offer an arcade in both colors.

You know what, I think we'll see this.

If people don't think Microsoft has plans to attack the mass market now that they're reaching sub-$200 price points, then they're in for a real surprise in 2009.

This is Microsoft we're talking about. The screws are tightening on Sony.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Do you really think the PS3 won't get a price drop next year ?

To tell the truth, I'm not sure they will. Maybe I'm just buying into what they're telling their shareholders - that they're just trying to turn the thing profitable, but it seems to me that the first thing that they'll try to address is the negative income that every system sold brings them. If they can manage a new revision that drops their cost to $350, I can see them eating the retailer markup and giving it a MSRP of $349.99, but at this point I think they're very averse to putting market share over profits.

The strategy that they've been running with since the PS2 has absolutely relied on them being in an overwhelming 1st place, and that just isn't happening this generation, and they're doing their damnedest to adjust.

EDIT: Remember. For Sony to break even at $299, they've got to cut their parts and manufacturing cost by 33%. That's not even factoring retailer markup and marketing costs.

 

[Paracelsus]

If people don't think Microsoft has plans to attack the mass market

It's not Microsoft has no plans, it's just mass market won't give a damn thing. Even the super boost will vanish once the new year starts. Failing consoles, whether they are in second or third place, have no chance for a comeback.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

They don't have the resources to do "Wii Lightning" as you call it. But if you want to believe that as use it as an argument, then be my guest. A lot of companies will try to replicate the Wii and what you call "Wii Lightning", do you know how many will succeed? None.

I mean try something completely new and different and (relatively) low cost. They can do that.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Right now, the lack of exclusives is what is hurting Sony along with the price. Why pay double the price for a PS3 when you can get essentially get the same experience on the X360? I really think that is the primary issue right now for them. That is the logic for most consumers who go out looking for an HD console. I think the PS3 is a great value for the money(Wi-Fi, more power, hard drive, Blu Ray, Internet, etc), but most consumers do not care about value, they care about what system can play their favorite games for the cheapest price. Wow, I can play Fallout 3 on a $200 console and save $200-$300 and use that for games or accessories.

 

[H_Prestige]

They're planning on moving to 45nm CPU early next year. How much would that lower production costs?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

A catalog that must not be appealing to Wii only households, since it's already cheaper than Wii and getting creamed.

I'm just throwing out ideas. PS3 could have a mass market renaissance. It might not, but X360 being even cheaper in the future isn't as much of a factor. $400 to $200 is a bigger deal than $200 to $100.

The first problems with your scenario is price and market saturation.

When the PS3 dropped to $399, a large number of the people willing to spend $399+ on a console plus games was already eaten up by the first year and a half of the 360.

When the PS3 eventually drops to $299, the number of people willing to spend $299+ on a console plus games will be significantly smaller than it is now.

Ditto for $250 and $199, which the Wii will have covered and then some. $199 to $99 is a big deal, especially in the tail end of a generation when the majority of purchases are going to cheapskates and the occasional multi-console owner picking up back-catalogs and used games.

Your scenario assumes either an infinite gaming audience or a gaming audience willing to own multiple consoles as a rule rather than an exception. Neither of these are currently true. There are currently less than 200 million active console gamers.

You also assume that the peak sales level that can be achieved by the PS3 or 360 once they reach mass market pricing is equivalent to the Wii's current sales level, or even equivalent to that of the PS2. Again, a dangerous assumption to make.

The PS3 and 360 are probably the first consoles where price drops will have the most profound effects over time, as the starting price was so high and they managed to not die while they were so astronomical. However, it is unlikely that either console has what it takes to sustain multi-million unit sales months in a single territory, as the Wii is currently doing, because neither is offering what the Wii is offering. It's very likely that the PS3's best hope is what the 360 is doing right now, because it offers a very similar experience, simply at a higher price.

The final problem in your scenario is time. If the PS3 doesn't hit mass market pricing until fall of 2010, how big of a slice of casual marketshare pie will there be left to consume? The Wii could be well over 100 million units sold by then, the 360 over 40 million.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

They might as well. Isn't the arcade dominating the other models right now? They could just axe the other two and offer an arcade in both colors.

Bingo. They'd be able to say that the 360 retails for $199, is fully HD ready, and comes with a game (if they keep the pack-in past the holiday) without any qualifiers. It solidly becomes the value proposition. They could probably start selling in both black and white as a 50/50 split, and then adjust based on retailer feedback.

It would finally give them a little more of a leg up on Nintendo, and they could really position themselves as the system to go to when you've tired of your Wii.

 

[Private Hoffman]

I'm confident they will cut the price, but I just put that qualifier out there in case they don't. There's a lot of uncertainty out there, and Sony can't exactly take huge losses from their gaming division (like they did this past quarter) anymore.

I do believe $299 is a magic price point for the PS3. I'd really like to see it at that price in 2009, but I'm not completely convinced it will happen. Like was mentioned previously, the losses last quarter in the gaming division were substantial...they are still losing money on a $400 PS3.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

They're planning on moving to 45nm CPU early next year. How much would that lower production costs?

Source?

 

[Karma]

I'm confident they will cut the price, but I just put that qualifier out there in case they don't. There's a lot of uncertainty out there, and Sony can't exactly take huge losses from their gaming division (like they did this past quarter) anymore.

I do believe $299 is a magic price point for the PS3. I'd really like to see it at that price in 2009, but I'm not completely convinced it will happen. Like was mentioned previously, the losses last quarter in the gaming division were substantial...they are still losing money on a $400 PS3.

What magic will happen?

 

[ziran]

Not the same thing. Gamecube didn't offer much over a PS2. While a PS3 does offer a lot over a Wii. (especially 2-3 years from now, what a nice catalog)



Agree. I think if Sony starts building any momentum MS will do the same thing over again. Launch earlier with an attractive price point and try and catch them off guard.

To the mass market, i.e. the majority of people who play videogames, and most PS2 owners, PS3 offers NOTHING over the Wii. If you disagree you're wrong, and really have not been paying attention.

You know, several months on and a couple of years in, the saddest thing here is many people, including possibly Sony, unless they're playing a big bluff, still not getting that PS3's biggest mistake wasn't price, it was coming to market with the wrong gameplan. Of course, price was/is a factor, and ultimately condemned them to last place this gen (but more about that later ;-), but it wasn't their key mistake, which is pretty obvious now.

Sony, like MS, assumed the market would take to last gen gaming with better graphics, as this had worked for the PS1 -> PS2 gen, but the mass market had moved on and wanted something new, which turned out to be Wii. This left Sony and MS fighting it out for a secondary market of 'core gamers', which is what is causing many developers and publishers so much trouble because it is what it is, i.e. a secondary market, and simply doesn't have, nor will ever have, the installed base to accommodate the risk of HD development. Sure, you have a chance of profit, but this can easily be wiped out by increased losses from the bombs because the business model is so retardedly expensive.

The other crippling mistake Sony made was not dropping the price this year. Wii is the closest thing to a PS2 type system, and will likely outsell it significantly, but there is a decent market for a certain kind of content on HD systems, but by not dropping the price this year, Sony has essentially said HELLO to 3rd place and given 2nd to 360 (which, imo it deserves because MS has worked and bled billions to get there), which I think is the point DeaconKnowledge was trying to make, but you were so eager to avoid. Sony has fucked up so magnificently it's begs belief!!!!

And, like DeaconKnowledge said, I think next year could very easily be worse for PS3 than this, because the system has virtually no guaranteed 'system sellers', beyond FFXIII in one region, its line up, in this regard, is poor, no question about it.

Sony has made far too many mistakes this gen, I mean, FFS, they even positioned a level editor for an unknown 2D platformer by Media Molecule as one of their big 'system selling' games of the year! :lol (and this is in no way a comment on the quality of the game, rather the fucking dumb notion the masses would EVER take to such a thing; even on Wii or PS2 it was clearly never going to happen! ;-)

 

[Death Dealer]

The first problems with your scenario is price and market saturation.

I'm not assuming an infinite amount of gamers and you should not assume X360 has already achieved a tipping point that cannot be overcome. The PS3 could surge ahead in ww sales #s, if it began to marginally but steadily outsell the X360 periodically on a month to month basis over the course of the next several years. What would that take ? Aggressive price drops and must have exclusive titles.

You seem stuck on this idea MS has or will "use up" all the first time HD game purchaser slots before Sony. There are still tens of millions of future first time HD console purchasers left. We're not half done yet.

I don't believe the current trend will continue indefinitely. The further in time we go, and the more both consoles drop in price, the advantage can only go to Sony because they started so much higher. They have a steep road ahead, it doesn't look good, but nobody knows for sure what will happen.

It's easy to stay on the safe side and declare certain what is likely to happen.

 

[H_Prestige]

Source?

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Sony...essor-Will-Be-Implemented-in-2009-94001.shtml

 

[ziran]

dp

 

[forgeforsaken]

The 2009 economy certainly isn't going to be helping Sony. Electronics over the holiday were down 26% compared to 2007. One has to wonder how much HD TV adoption is going to slow and with that the so called desire for an HD console/blu-ray player.

 

[GenericPseudonym]

Do you really think the PS3 won't get a price drop next year ?

I think a $50 price drop is largely worthless, it will stimulate sales but lacks the psychological impact of a $100 cut. That's why a premium 360 at $299 and Arcade at $199 is so damn bad for Sony, the Premium sucks up the hardcore buyer while the Arcade is perfectly priced for the mass market. A $249 Arcade would have been worthless.

 

[Paracelsus]

Right now, the lack of exclusives is what is hurting Sony along with the price. Why pay double the price for a PS3 when you can get essentially get the same experience on the X360? I really think that is the primary issue right now for them. That is the logic for most consumers who go out looking for an HD console. I think the PS3 is a great value for the money(Wi-Fi, more power, hard drive, Blu Ray, Internet, etc), but most consumers do not care about value, they care about what system can play their favorite games for the cheapest price. Wow, I can play Fallout 3 on a $200 console and save $200-$300 and use that for games or accessories.

You said it yourself: the price. Even if PS3 still had a couple more big exclusives (do you think FFXIII and DMC4 would have saved the day?), still it would not be enough. Why paying 200$ more just for a couple games while almost the same experience on another console is cheaper? It would happen the same that will happen with GoW3 and GT5: nice sw sales, good hw sales for a couple months, then back down the toilet.

Price is the true problem, make no mistake about it. A lower price would not help them beating the X360, but it would give people second thoughts. "This or that?", stuff like this.

 

[Death Dealer]

To the mass market, i.e. the majority of people who play videogames, and most PS2 owners, PS3 offers NOTHING over the Wii. If you disagree you're wrong, and really have not been paying attention.

You cannot take price out of the equation. And I think you're wrong about the proposition the mass market sees nothing additional of value in the PS3. They just don't want to pay for it.
If I were settings odds in Vegas, I'd give the PS3 10:1 chance of finishing second but it's not impossible.

 

[Death Dealer]

I think a $50 price drop is largely worthless, it will stimulate sales but lacks the psychological impact of a $100 cut.

Yeah if they want to make a serious move it's got to get a $100 price cut a few months before Christmas. More of an impact than two $50s. If it only gets one $50 cut next year, that's not fast enough and they will finish last for sure.

 

[Forsete]

:lol People might be stupid, but they cant possibly be retarded enough not to see that PS3 offers more. If they are not interested that's another thing. :lol

 

[Kolgar]

To the mass market, i.e. the majority of people who play videogames, and most PS2 owners, PS3 offers NOTHING over the Wii. If you disagree you're wrong, and really have not been paying attention.

Bingo. Exept for your definition of the mass market, which we'll get to in 3, 2, 1...

Sony, like MS, assumed the market would take to last gen gaming with better graphics, as this had worked for the PS1 -> PS2 gen, but the mass market had moved on and wanted something new, which turned out to be Wii.

I agree with most of what you said, but not this. The mass market didn't move on. The industry simply hadn't REACHED them yet.

Sony and Microsoft have been trying to grow the market with more technologically advanced versions of the same game boxes pimply faced teenage boys have adored since the 70s. But Soccer Mom and Grandpa were never going to embrace those machines, nor mom and dad, the mailman, the banker or the hot secretary at the front desk.

What Nintendo's done is smash that barrier and reached outside the comparatively tiny audience of tradional gamers to connect with, well, EVERYONE. Sony and Microsoft can wait and wait until they get to a "mass market" price, but their machines simply lack the mass-market appeal of Nintendo's Wii.

You cannot take price out of the equation. And I think you're wrong about the proposition the mass market sees nothing additional of value in the PS3. They just don't want it.

Fixed.

 

[Night_Trekker]

:lol People might be stupid, but they cant possibly be retarded enough not to see that PS3 offers more. If they are not interested that's another thing. :lol

Most of the people interested in the Wii aren't :lol

 

[Forsete]

Most of the people interested in the Wii aren't :lol

Probably true. Neither PS3 nor 360 interests them as gaming systems.

At least the Wii owners I know (families with small children). Some of them have been talking about PS3 for its movie capabilities though, but they weren't interested in gaming on it. One guy asked "Can I hook up a keyboard to it?" I said "Well one game supports it" the reply I got was "Oh, pity!". :lol

 

[Karma]

All this talk is about 2nd and 3rd place in Hardware. How about software. Do we have any solid LDT software numbers for the PS3 and 360? Seems 2nd place in software is what will count.

 

[Link]

All this talk is about 2nd and 3rd place in Hardware. How about software. Do we have any solid LDT software numbers for the PS3 and 360? Seems 2nd place in software is what will count.

I'm pretty sure the software race is even more in favor of the 360.

 

[Tobor]

You cannot take price out of the equation. And I think you're wrong about the proposition the mass market sees nothing additional of value in the PS3. They just don't want to pay for it.
If I were settings odds in Vegas, I'd give the PS3 10:1 chance of finishing second but it's not impossible.

100:1 at absolute best. It's not going to happen. The deck is just too well stacked against them.

Price is in the equation, but it's not the only factor at all. Sony was attacked on both sides of their business by different competitors with no ideal answer for either.

 

[Tormentoso]

The articles say this:
The Games Don't SELL As Well Other Games.

Not that they don't exist.

And bringing up the GAF Game Of The Year as some benchmark of sales potential (which you must be doing, because this article, written in the Wall Street Journal, a financial publication, not a games review paper, is focusing squarely on sales. It says the PS3 lacks games that have enormous sales potential and delivery as seen in Gears Of War 2 and Fable II.) is off as well.

And your smearing of XBox fans is laughable and reductive. En masse, 360 users do not "defend" having to buy more than one console. They do it because:
a) They enjoy the library and it's worth it to sustain the experience
b) It's cheaper than reinvesting in an entirely new platform

As far as the $50 being stolen from them, that's also an illogical argument. As it stands, the 360 still offers individual and unparalleled experiences in the online console space in terms of their exclusive games. Find me a direct equivalent of a mode like Horde or a co-op experience like Fable II or a feature like Auction House on Forza or a shooter that lets download maps off their website on the PS3, then maybe we can start to call Xbox Live's gold fee some kind of ripoff. As it stands, there are a multitude of exclusive experiences that sustain that value proposition.

My favorite part, though, is that you go out of your way to say "Every group has a ton of fanboys", a statement of equanimity, but only after saying "Xbox fans are the worst."

See superiority every where.... find me one like Warhwak or the cooperative mode on Resistance 2 find me something like LPB on 360.

I leave it at that..

 

[Link]

I leave it at that..

If only.

 

[Karma]

:lol People might be stupid, but they cant possibly be retarded enough not to see that PS3 offers more. If they are not interested that's another thing. :lol

I think many Wii owners not only do not see that the PS3 offers more but see it as inferior. No waggle = inferior to many of the Wii owners I know. Sad but true.

 

[ziran]

If only.

:lol

 

[Sadist]

See superiority every where.... find me one like Warhwak or the cooperative mode on Resistance 2 find me something like LPB on 360.

I leave it at that..

(neutral) Tormentoso
His arguments are weak and his points are invalid
(Today, 01:18 AM)
Reply | Quote

I think many Wii owners not only do not see that the PS3 offers more but see it as inferior. No waggle = inferior to many of the Wii owners I know. Sad but true.

Why is that sad? They just think the Wii has more value to offer. It's called perception.

 

[Karma]

(neutral) Tormentoso
His arguments are weak and his points are invalid
(Today, 01:18 AM)
Reply | Quote


Why is that sad? They just think the Wii has more value to offer. It's called perception.

Fair enough.

 

[Karma]

I'm pretty sure the software race is even more in favor of the 360.

Then it seems the PS3 is a lock for 3rd in software.

 

[Deleted member 30609]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Y9KyBdPeKHg

 

[duk]

Will this thread go into 2009??? I bet so!

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

So being down for 1 month means that it's down for the year? That's some spurious reasoning. Secondly, what higher price? The month you're comparing it to in 2007 received a significant price drop (which can tend to be front loaded, sales wise), while this year there was no price drop to induce slightly inflated sales for the month. The price in November 2007 was exactly the same as it is in November 2008. The competition also got substantially cheaper.

The fact remains that the PS3 has had substantially greater sales (in NA, at least) for 2008 as a whole and will most definitely be ahead of PS3's 2007 sales by a significant margin. There were months in 2007 where the PS3 sold 70-80k, meanwhile the PS3 maintained 200+k in those same months for 2008.

To say that the PS3's best years are behind them is hilarious, and you will most definitely be proven wrong in 2009 so long as Sony drops the price.

If i'm proven wrong i'm proven wrong. However just as I agree it's foolish to establish trends from one month (which I haven't done; I reiterate that this is a theory I have; i'm not ready to substantiate it yet) it is also just as foolish to ignore the one month as an anomaly, particularly as it applies to not just the PS3, but the PSP and 2 as well (though lower sales for the PS2 after all these years are easily excused.)


Again, feel free to point to my post in a year and laugh at me.

 

[Son.Ralph.Funk]

To us hardcore gamers, does it really matter if the PS3 doesn't surpass the 360 in sales. As long as the PS3 isn't a short-lived failure (i.e. Dreamcast, Jaguar, 32X, etc.) I mean the margin betweeen the two systems will definitely be a lot closer then the sales of the Xbox and the PS2 and yet the Xbox was my favorite last gen system. The PS3 is currently my favorite current gen system and I see no reason why that is going to change in the future.

I still don't know exactly what a "hardcore gamer" is, but what I do know is that anyone who proclaims themselves a "hardcore gamer" is not one.

 

[Hwang Seong-Gyeong]

It's very depressive when you think about it, only on the third year of it's lifespan PS3 might reach PS2's launch price. And I don't remember $300 being too cheap either.

I hope no on launches a console over $300 ever again, and would love to see $200-$300 consoles next-gen.

 

[Deleted member 30609]

Will this thread go into 2009??? I bet so!

It's already 09 here.

 

[Tobor]

It's very depressive when you think about it, only on the third year of it's lifespan PS3 might reach PS2's launch price. And I don't remember $300 being too cheap either.

I hope no on launches a console over $300 ever again, and would love to see $200-$300 consoles next-gen.

I'll drink to this.

 

[shpankey]

All this talk is about 2nd and 3rd place in Hardware. How about software. Do we have any solid LDT software numbers for the PS3 and 360? Seems 2nd place in software is what will count.

I believe it's even uglier there. 360 software sales are insane really.