As I said, it is about total perceived value. Individually it means NOTHING. Regardless of the game they bundle, a free game is, a free game. Do not fail to understand that when mom and dad walk in to buy Johnny UK a console, and the teller explains that whilst the X1 is more expensive, it comes with a free retail game (which may happen to be the most successful UK sports franchise) and the Kinect, that the perceived value of the system increases. Cost is irrelevant here. These are luxury purchases; and the only thing that dictates luxury expenses is the perceived level of value in relation to the competition. Free is a hard word to compete against, even if the total cost of the system is higher. "Free" (anything) is a trump card at retail.
The rest of your post was to the point and mostly spot on.