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Trump risks major diplomatic dispute with China after speaking with Taiwan's prez

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If America has gotten so weak that they need to kowtow to authoritarian one party dictatorships like China, then maybe they really do need someone to make them "great again".

This is the sort of meat-head jingoism that allowed us to bumble our way into Iraq, and forced us to expend 13 years of blood and treasure trying to contain the outcomes of those mistakes.

As I said, this fuck-up is going to cost people their lives, but those people will almost assuredly not be the anonymous dick-wagging commenters of video game forums.
 
Do American just not learn anything about history in school? Like, that whole thing that Nixon did opening relations with China? That major normalization of relations between two world powers?

did...did you honestly believe the average person does, after electing Trump?

But sarcastic schadenfreude to make myself feel superior aside, I'm a fully educated man in social stuff nonetheless, and I did not know this difference either. But then I'm some schmuck with no responsibilities and Trump is PEOTUS, so you know, not really comparable.
 

tuxfool

Banned
uhhh the world is really complicated stuff. It's hard to enough to follow whats happening locally, let along nationally and internationally.

Is it really that surprising that many americans don't know shit about taiwan?
A lot of cases of Dunning Kruger on display here.
 
Everyone needs to grow up, be adults, and admit that Taiwan really is its own country, especially the people living there afraid to do so because of the missiles being pointed at them. It has its own legal codes, its own tax system, its own military and China has none of these things in Taiwan. Independence has nothing to do with it because the Peoples Republic of China has never, in all of its history, ever controlled the island of Taiwan. I have zero respect for world organizations like the UN who refuse to provide representation and it's in our interests on so many levels to restore full diplomatic relations.
Easier said than done. Bring up the status of Taiwan to a Mainland Chinese who is otherwise fairly liberal in his or her political and social ideologies and you may be surprised at the response you get. Taiwan belongs to China. It's both a fact and a visceral emotion to most Chinese people.
Taiwanese positions on interstrait relations are very diverse, not everyone there thinks they're really the legitimate government of China. Regardless of what anyone thinks, wants, or advocates, these are two separate autonomous de facto republics and should be treated as such.
Yes, this is true. Support for unification is low now. Self-identification as Taiwanese is high. The KMT is off in the wildnerness at the moment. I would love to see Taiwan recognized officially as an independent nation without war in my lifetime.
 
I never said anything about a military relationship. More in an economic sense, our two economies are intertwined. That's because for both parties it's beneficial and I assumed we wanted to see that continue.

Then you have no idea what an ally or alliance is with regards to nations and treaties. You can have trade with a country without being an ally. You have provided no evidence for your notion that the United States and China are allies. Instead, just keep telling yourself that the U.S. is allied with China. We established embassies as recently as 1979; less than 40 years ago.

The countries are not intertwined. We have a dependence on imports from China. Our dependence on China has to do with their manufacturing. Why we import most of our products from China is because of the cheaper labor, less regulations, greater manufacturing capacity, and stable relationship. There are more reasons, but over time, China outperformed the U.S. in manufacturing. We increased our consumption and as a result, most of our trade is with China. Other countries also import from China too without having an alliance.

Again, you can have economic relations with a country that you are not allied with. The reason why the U.S. is not allied with China is because of major disagreements between the two (North Korea, pacific islands, human rights, Taiwan, etc.).

Relations were slowly improving but now that's gone with Trump. At this rate, we're going to be engaging in a trade war with China.

Edit:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/19/china-says-its-ready-if-us-stirs-up-any-conflict-in-south-china-sea.html

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-talks-limited-by-disagreements-1465300155
 

Barzul

Member
People really still thinking the freak out is over the phone call? It isn't. It's the uncertainty. But if anyone can confidently tell me what Trump's foreign policy approach will be, I'm all ears.
 

Slo

Member
Do you guys suppose that somewhere on some Chinese message board there's a ton of members wringing there hands and fretting about the consequences of annoying the big bad American government?
 

BKK

Member
Kowtowing, ah, is that what we have been doing all this time. Is that official policy, agreed upon by Reagan, was it? That B-grade celebrity never MAGA. Guess this one will.

China under Xi Jinping is far more aggressive than before, the situation has changed.

This is the sort of meat-head jingoism that allowed us to bumble our way into Iraq, and forced us to expend 13 years of blood and treasure trying to contain the outcomes of those mistakes.

As I said, this fuck-up is going to cost people their lives, but those people will almost assuredly not be the anonymous dick-wagging commenters of video game forums.

Completely different circumstances, Iraq was contained, wasn't threatening the US, why did Bush decide to intervene? I really don't know.

China under Xi Jinping is becoming increasingly assertive, aggressive, and repressive. Obama tried softly softly, it didn't work, time for a change of tack..
 

Xe4

Banned
If Trump had shocked us all with a reasoned, nuanced statement on what he did and the intended implications of it, this'd be a different thread.

Because if Obama had had the call, I'm betting the explanation would have been more than "we sell weapons why wouldn't I let them stroke my ego?"

It': not just that he had the call, but that every indicator he's giving is that he doesn't understand the implications of it any more than a random on the street would. Trump has no background, no experience, and if he is going to be an actual president he needs to give some impression he makes moves understanding the full weight of his position. A glib tweet is exactly what not to do, because it indicates he maybe didn't bother to think through what this would represent.

I think that's fair. I wasn't a fan of the tweet, certainly and I'd rather him not be running our foreign policy. I was just noting thr negative reaction to the call itself is strange.

Um, Taiwan and Tibet know we support them. Diplomacy is a chess game, not whoever can yell louder. Obama wouldn't do this shit because he isn't a fucking dumbass.
We certainly could do a better job with that, particularly regarding Tibet. I don't think it was a shouting contest, just a phone call. And again, Obama invited the Dali Lama to the Whitehouse.
 
Do you guys suppose that somewhere on some Chinese message board there's a ton of members wringing there hands and fretting about the consequences of annoying the big bad American government?

Of course. The whole world collectively face palmed when the US voted for Trump.

I have overheard 12 years old kids in my class saying "I can't believe he actually won?!"

Back in my days it was "They voted for him twice?!"
 
Do you guys suppose that somewhere on some Chinese message board there's a ton of members wringing there hands and fretting about the consequences of annoying the big bad American government?

Maybe?

I suspect there would be more meat-head Nationalists blustering about how inconsequential America is in this whole affair, and how much we need China more than they need us. And probably a lot of memes about 'dibeetis' and how they have a GDP growth rate 7-10x greater than us.
 

FStop7

Banned
No.

People who know what they're talking about realize this is a reckless mistake.

Christopher Hill - Fmr Ambassador to Korea and A/S of East Asia Affairs
[URL="https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/804840749825028096"]Ian Bremmer - Founder Eurasia Group

[/URL]Ari Fleischer - Bush press secretary

I imagine Trump will quickly try and say he's not setting policy here, but damage will have been done.

A true blunder.

But animeavatar666boi on neogaf assures me it's time we stick it to the man
 

Hexa

Member
That's part of the chess game.

Trump has not time for your games.

tumblr_n76m0yHOjC1s2wio8o1_500.gif
 
If America has gotten so weak that they need to kowtow to authoritarian one party dictatorships like China, then maybe they really do need someone to make them "great again".

Trump actually is much likely to make "co-ruling" deal in South East Asia with China than Obama was.

Trump's win represents a major US strategy retreat in South East Asia, and likely Europe too.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Completely different circumstances, Iraq was contained, wasn't threatening the US, why did Bush decide to intervene? I really don't know.

China under Xi Jinping is becoming increasingly assertive, aggressive, and repressive. Obama tried softly softly, it didn't work, time for a change of tack..
Some might argue the sale of weapons and ships to Taiwan was a change...

Of all the ways China has been asserting itself throughout Asia, and the world, was Taiwan an issue that needed to be so indelicately stepped into right now?
 

Barzul

Member
China under Xi Jinping is far more aggressive than before, the situation has changed.



Completely different circumstances, Iraq was contained, wasn't threatening the US, why did Bush decide to intervene? I really don't know.

China under Xi Jinping is becoming increasingly assertive, aggressive, and repressive. Obama tried softly softly, it didn't work, time for a change of tack..
Hope this move was in fact thought out this deeply.
 
Do you guys suppose that somewhere on some Chinese message board there's a ton of members wringing there hands and fretting about the consequences of annoying the big bad American government?

The US doesn't have any outstanding sovereignty claims over large chunks of it's country. Can you imagine if Texas was still calling itself the Confederacy, and claimed the whole of the US as it's own, how Americans and especially the American government would feel about any country doing anything with Texas without their consent?

The US didn't have a century of humiliation at the hands of white fuckhead European colonialists and genocidal racists from Japan. Can you imagine if Americans largely lived in abject poverty until only a few decades ago because of foreign intervention, how that might warp their sense of place in the world? Can you imagine how Americans would feel if their grandparents had been slaughtered and raped by invaders that are now best buds with the Chinese?

Yeah I can imagine people in China might feel a bit differently than Americans.
 
China under Xi Jinping is far more aggressive than before, the situation has changed.



Completely different circumstances, Iraq was contained, wasn't threatening the US, why did Bush decide to intervene? I really don't know.

China under Xi Jinping is becoming increasingly assertive, aggressive, and repressive. Obama tried softly softly, it didn't work, time for a change of tack..

An argument of containment with Iraq or China is moot. Nationalist fever will lead Trump fans to demand doubling, and tripling down of bad decisions when China's inevitable response comes, sometime next year.

When they violently crush the next Umbrella Revolution and Trump needs something to distract his braying cultists from his and the GOPs lack of movement on some portion of their domestic policy, the sabre-rattling over Chinese actions won't be stopped, much like the drumbeat to 'push a smaller nation against the wall' following 9/11, wasn't going to be stopped by reasonable arguments.

We can revisit this silly sentiment that, "no one is going to die over a phonecall" at that point, but I suspect the outcome will be blamed on something else, not the blatantly unstrategic flailing we're witnessing from Trump and those who are willing to run interference for him, right here, right now.
 

BKK

Member
Trump actually is much likely to make "co-ruling" deal in South East China with China than Obama was.

Trump's win represents a major US strategy retreat in South East Asia, and likely Europe too.

I'm not sure what you specify by "South East China", if you mean Taiwan coming under "one country, two systems", then that's not a realistic outcome for the forseeable future.

Some might argue the sale of weapons and ships to Taiwan was a change...

Of all the ways China has been asserting itself throughout Asia, and the world, was Taiwan an issue that needed to be so indelicately stepped into right now?

I think he's being intentionally antagonistic towards China. He seems to start from extreme positions, then when he relaxes his position it seems like a "win" to the opposing party. It should probably be taken in the context of his "trade war" against China. A negotiating tactic ... but we will see.
 

BKK

Member
An argument of containment with Iraq or China is moot. Nationalist fever will lead Trump fans to demand doubling, and tripling down of bad decisions when China's inevitable response comes, sometime next year.

When they violently crush the next Umbrella Revolution and Trump needs something to distract his braying cultists from his and the GOPs lack of movement on some portion of their domestic policy, the sabre-rattling over Chinese actions won't be stopped, much like the drumbeat to 'push a smaller nation against the wall' following 9/11, wasn't going to be stopped by reasonable arguments.

We can revisit this silly sentiment that, "no one is going to die over a phonecall" at that point, but I suspect the outcome will be blamed on something else, not the blatantly unstrategic flailing we're witnessing from Trump and those who are willing to run interference for him, right here, right now.

There will be no "Umbrella Revolution" in China as long as the people keep on getting richer. There's no sign of that ending any time soon.
 

Agnostic

but believes in Chael
Dude needs to get off Twitter and start attending intel briefings. Maybe even read as many books as he can about foreign and domestic policy before taking office. This isn't fucking funny.
 

FyreWulff

Member
So he antagonised the Chinese like Trump just has, but what was Obama's end game in this chess game that he was playing with China over Tibet?

He invited the DL to show Tibet we support them. China can't harp on it too much, because officially they don't recognize him, while at the same time saying they legally determine who he reincarnates as. Acknowledging his visit overtly would mean China officially recognizes Tibet and his status, so it's sort of a pincer move.

Like I said, chess. Diplomacy is tangled, messy, but it's still a game everyone plays, weaving through narrow loopholes.

We already acknowledge Taiwan by having a massive naval barricade between them and China. They have our full support and protection. Even then, we have to play a game diplomatically to a) keep things from blowing up b) stick it to China without violating their sovereignty at the national level while also c) not letting China get one over on us propaganda wise.
 

BKK

Member
He invited the DL to show Tibet we support them. China can't harp on it too much, because officially they don't recognize him, while at the same time saying they legally determine who he reincarnates as. Acknowledging his visit overtly would mean China officially recognizes Tibet and his status, so it's sort of a pincer move.

Like I said, chess. Diplomacy is tangled, messy, but it's still a game everyone plays, weaving through narrow loopholes.

We already acknowledge Taiwan by having a massive naval barricade between them and China. They have our full support and protection. Even then, we have to play a game diplomatically to a) keep things from blowing up b) stick it to China without violating their sovereignty at the national level while also c) not letting China get one over on us propaganda wise.

Really? The diplomatic consequences for meeting the Dalai Lama will be far worse than taking a phone call from the Taiwanese President.
 

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
Of course. The whole world collectively face palmed when the US voted for Trump.

I have overheard 12 years old kids in my class saying "I can't believe he actually won?!"

Back in my days it was "They voted for him twice?!"
That second question will likely be repeated in four years anyway.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Really? The diplomatic consequences for meeting the Dalai Lama will be far worse than taking a phone call from the Taiwanese President.

We aren't the UK. We have a lot more power in our relationship with China than they do in theirs. Also, that article is from 2013.

Obama's held four different meetings with the Dalai Lama over his term. Four. We're in a different situation than the UK in terms of our relationship with China. It's not 1-to-1.

Here's an article about Obama's last meeting. http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/15/politics/obama-dalai-lama/

Also, you need to understand: when it comes to China's foreign policy not recognizing Taiwan is literally #1 on their list. If you recognize them that's that.
 
There will be no "Umbrella Revolution" in China as long as the people keep on getting richer. There's no sign of that ending any time soon.

Uh, Umbrella Revolution was in Hong Kong. What are you even arguing? Dissent will happen again, but this stupidity almost certainly forces Xi to violently crush the next instance out of existential fear that if not it will only embolden Taiwan, Macau or Xinjiang.
 

GuyKazama

Member
But animeavatar666boi on neogaf assures me it's time we stick it to the man

People quoting Ari Fleischer are leaving out his other more positive tweets

Ari Fleischer‏ @AriFleischer
China has been increasingly aggressive with us because they know we won't do anything meaningful about it. I don't mind Trump pushing back.
 

BKK

Member
We aren't the UK. We have a lot more power in our relationship with China than they do in theirs. Also, that article is from 2013.

Obama's held four different meetings with the Dalai Lama over his term. Four. We're in a different situation than the UK in terms of our relationship with China. It's not 1-to-1.

Here's an article about Obama's last meeting. http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/15/politics/obama-dalai-lama/

Right ... so this is no big deal then, as the US enough power that upsetting China is no big deal (Obama upset them four times afterall).
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
People quoting Ari Fleischer are leaving out his other more positive tweets

Fleischer has said he's OK with this only if it's part of a larger plan. If Trump's team has a plan and has consulted the State Department, the NSA, CIA, and the DOD then fine. But as far as we know he hasn't. For all we know he made the call because he's got business interests in Taiwan.

Right ... so this is no big deal then, as the US enough power that upsetting China is no big deal (Obama upset them four times afterall).

Good job cutting off the part where I explain how not recognizing Taiwan is literally #1 on China's list of FP requirements.

This is still at the point where it can be walked back by Obama, and it likely has been, but the worry is that he's going to be doing more of this "seat of his pants diplomacy" over the next four years and that's fucking terrifying. If this is how he handles foreign policy we'll be lucky to end his first term without a war.
 

Dr.Acula

Banned
From The Fog of War:

McNamara: Let me go back one moment. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, at the end, I think we did put ourselves in the skin of the Soviets. In the case of Vietnam, we didn't know them well enough to empathize. And there was total misunderstanding as a result. They believed that we had simply replaced the French as a colonial power, and we were seeking to subject South and North Vietnam to our colonial interests, which was absolutely absurd. And we, we saw Vietnam as an element of the Cold War. Not what they saw it as: a civil war.

1995

There aren't many examples in which you bring two former enemies together, at the highest levels, and discuss what might have been. I formed the hypothesis that each of us could have achieved our objectives without the terrible loss of life. And I wanted to test that by going to Vietnam.

The former Foreign Minister of Vietnam, a wonderful man named Thach said, "You're totally wrong. We were fighting for our independence. You were fighting to enslave us."
We almost came to blows. That was noon on the first day.

"Do you mean to say it was not a tragedy for you, when you lost 3 million 4 hundred thousand Vietnamese killed, which on our population base is the equivalent of 27 million Americans? What did you accomplish? You didn't get any more than we were willing to give you at the beginning of the war. You could have had the whole damn thing: independence, unification."

"Mr. McNamara, You must never have read a history book. If you'd had, you'd know we weren't pawns of the Chinese or the Russians. McNamara, didn't you know that? Don't you understand that we have been fighting the Chinese for 1000 years? We were fighting for our independence. And we would fight to the last man. And we were determined to do so. And no amount of bombing, no amount of U.S. pressure would ever have stopped us."

So that's a consequence of two nations completely misunderstanding the others goals and motivations.
 

J2d

Member
I had no idea that relations between Taiwan and the us were so weak, always thought they were solid allies:/
 

BKK

Member
Uh, Umbrella Revolution was in Hong Kong. What are you even arguing? Dissent will happen again, but this stupidity almost certainly forces Xi to violently crush the next instance out of existential fear that if not it will only embolden Taiwan, Macau or Xinjiang.

The argument is that there will be no Umbrella Revolution in China. China still leaves HK enough leeway not to crush protests, although they are trying to influence the territory more and more. Still, I think that you're being alarmist if you're suggesting that the next HK protests will be violently crushed at the behest of Beijing, fortunately we're not at that point yet, but there's a danger that we could end up there if something isn't done now.
 

BKK

Member
Fleischer has said he's OK with this only if it's part of a larger plan. If Trump's team has a plan and has consulted the State Department, the NSA, CIA, and the DOD then fine. But as far as we know he hasn't. For all we know he made the call because he's got business interests in Taiwan.



Good job cutting off the part where I explain how not recognizing Taiwan is literally #1 on China's list of FP requirements.

This is still at the point where it can be walked back by Obama, and it likely has been, but the worry is that he's going to be doing more of this "seat of his pants diplomacy" over the next four years and that's fucking terrifying. If this is how he handles foreign policy we'll be lucky to end his first term without a war.

I cut off nothing ... you edited that in after I quoted you!
 

Ishan

Junior Member
I'm sure that they would if the US hadn't armed them to the teeth, an issue that China should be far more angry about than the President Elect accepting a congratulatory telephone call.
https://www.quora.com/Why-hasnt-PLA-attacked-Taiwan-yet

Here read . Educate yourself on why and why this is the case and what treaties have been made . Stop whittling down complex international issues to one line statements . If that was the way the world worked we would all be bombing each other ... A point often made in this thread has been why will china retaliate in any way .. it will harm itself . Most countries are willing to harm themselves if they believe it won't result in their destruction when it comes to hot topic political issues ...

Imagine if tomorrow Russia decided to annex 1km of Alaska . Does it make sense for the us to fight them ? It's fucking 1km of Alaska . Fighting Russia harms the us . Both suffer so us should just back down . But you don't because borders are respected . Similarly Treaties norms and understandings between international players are respected etc etc .

You can't boil this shit down to one line if you do it either shows you're super super well read or not well versed on the topic .i doubt it's the former .
 
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