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[ArchedThunder]

I'm expected 299 for ps4. 349 it's a weird drop applied just for particular situations. (when pratically you can't drop the price how much you really wanted because cost)

Sony wants to keep making a profit on each unit sold, if they can't do that at $300 they will drop the price to $350, even if it costs $310 to make a PS4. Then again, I have no idea how much it costs to make a PS4 right now and know even less about how much it will cost to make one by, say, September. I'm keeping my guess for a price drop this year at $350, but will be pleasantly surprised if they can drop it to $300. Though I guess a $100 dollar price drop this year would line up pretty well with the PS2 and PS3.

 

[Raist]

Thanks. Is there a possibility for an educayed guess at this time?

I guess ~14M or more for the PS4.

 

[Facism]

I guess ~14M or more for the PS4.

You're a doctor I can trust you.

 

[SMOK3Y]

Who says that exactly?

I fall under "everyone", and I don't say that.

I think he worded it wrong he meant to say 'Americans'

 

[Javin98]

If PS4 surpass Xbone in January, I think the internet gonna explode.

It's not even an "if" now. The PS4 is almost guaranteed to take the lead in January now judging by Amazon Best Sellers list. And like others have said, Amazon has been right so far and it's unlikely for them to be wrong this month. BTW, I doubt there would be any meltdowns, especially in a slow month like January. Next month will be more interesting.

I can't bloody believe this thread is still alive lol.

PS4 numbers sold to consumers is past 18.5 by now. Xbox one , cant really tell but I think it is still under 10 million since rotw doesn't give a shit about it.

Agreed. The PS4 sales should be above 19 million now while the X1 is still ~200K-300K behind that 10 million sold through figure IMO.

 

[serversurfer]

Thanks. Is there a possibility for an educayed guess at this time?

Sony have sold 18.5M through 2014 (effectively), so their shipment was likely around the 19.5M mark, give or take a few hundred thousand. They shipped 4.5M in 2013, so that would be 15.5M in 2014, give or take.

AMD recently told us that at the end of 2014, Sony and MS had shipped "nearly 30M" combined. We don't know if that means 29.5M or 29.99M. Hell, even 29 is "nearly 30." So while it's not a solid number to calculate from, at least it provides us with an upper bound for XB3 shipments; 30M - PS4 shipments. So if we're guessing Sony's LTD to be 19.5M, that would cap XB3 shipments at 10.5M. They shipped 3.9M in 2013, which would give them a maximum of 6.6M shipped in 2014. But, we're still guessing at Sony's number. If Sony only shipped 19.3M, then XB3 could be as high as 10.7M, but if Sony shipped 19.7M, that would cap MS at only 10.3M.

Once we get solid numbers from Sony, we can do the final math and determine the real cap on XB3 shipments. At that point, the only question will be exactly how much rounding AMD did.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

Sony have sold 18.5M through 2014 (effectively), so their shipment was likely around the 19.5M mark, give or take a few hundred thousand. They shipped 4.5M in 2013, so that would be 15.5M in 2014, give or take.

AMD recently told us that at the end of 2014, Sony and MS had shipped "nearly 30M" combined. We don't know if that means 29.5M or 29.99M. Hell, even 29 is "nearly 30." So while it's not a solid number to calculate from, at least it provides us with an upper bound for XB3 shipments; 30M - PS4 shipments. So if we're guessing Sony's LTD to be 19.5M, that would cap XB3 shipments at 10.5M. They shipped 3.9M in 2013, which would give them a maximum of 6.6M shipped in 2014. But, we're still guessing at Sony's number. If Sony only shipped 19.3M, then XB3 could be as high as 10.7M, but if Sony shipped 19.7M, that would cap MS at only 10.3M.

Once we get solid numbers from Sony, we can do the final math and determine the real cap on XB3 shipments. At that point, the only question will be exactly how much rounding AMD did.

With AMD's numbers, for all we know, they are literally taking the 10 million figure from the beginning of December for MS and adding 18.5 million to that.

 

[serversurfer]

With AMD's numbers, for all we know, they are literally taking the 10 million figure from the beginning of December for MS and adding 18.5 million to that.

For AMD's sake, I certainly hope not. They are discussing their own "console-APU provider" business, and they are obligated to provide their shareholders with accurate information on the performance of said business.

Edit: Imagine if Sony or MS ass-sourced how many games had been sold on their platform. That's the same thing.

 

[The Artisan]

Sony have sold 18.5M through 2014 (effectively), so their shipment was likely around the 19.5M mark, give or take a few hundred thousand. They shipped 4.5M in 2013, so that would be 15.5M in 2014, give or take.

AMD recently told us that at the end of 2014, Sony and MS had shipped "nearly 30M" combined. We don't know if that means 29.5M or 29.99M. Hell, even 29 is "nearly 30." So while it's not a solid number to calculate from, at least it provides us with an upper bound for XB3 shipments; 30M - PS4 shipments. So if we're guessing Sony's LTD to be 19.5M, that would cap XB3 shipments at 10.5M. They shipped 3.9M in 2013, which would give them a maximum of 6.6M shipped in 2014. But, we're still guessing at Sony's number. If Sony only shipped 19.3M, then XB3 could be as high as 10.7M, but if Sony shipped 19.7M, that would cap MS at only 10.3M.

Once we get solid numbers from Sony, we can do the final math and determine the real cap on XB3 shipments. At that point, the only question will be exactly how much rounding AMD did.

do you think mS will continue to just announce shipment numbers? We haven't gotten a sales number from them in over a year.

 

[A_Gorilla]

do you think mS will continue to just announce shipment numbers? We haven't gotten a sales number from them in over a year.

So long as Sony's sold-through numbers are almost 2:1 ahead of MS', yes.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

For AMD's sake, I certainly hope not. They are discussing their own "console-APU provider" business, and they are obligated to provide their shareholders with accurate information on the performance of said business.

Edit: Imagine if Sony or MS ass-sourced how many games had been sold on their platform. That's the same thing.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.

18.5 + "over 10 million" is close enough to reach a nearly 30 million figure.

I don't think it's ass sourcing so much as it is them using the best information available to achieve a figure for their console APU business.

 

[The Artisan]

So long as Sony's sold-through numbers are almost 2:1 ahead of MS', yes.

But that's dumb. Just because they are behind Ps4 sales doesn't mean they have to shy away from telling the public what they've managed to sell, and just have the public guesstimating their numbers ALL the time.

 

[RPGamer92]

It's not even an "if" now. The PS4 is almost guaranteed to take the lead in January now judging by Amazon Best Sellers list. And like others have said, Amazon has been right so far and it's unlikely for them to be wrong this month. BTW, I doubt there would be any meltdowns, especially in a slow month like January. Next month will be more interesting.


Agreed. The PS4 sales should be above 19 million now while the X1 is still ~200K-300K behind that 10 million sold through figure IMO.

It will indeed be interesting to see if The Order is a system seller or not.

 

[Facism]

Sony have sold 18.5M through 2014 (effectively), so their shipment was likely around the 19.5M mark, give or take a few hundred thousand. They shipped 4.5M in 2013, so that would be 15.5M in 2014, give or take.

AMD recently told us that at the end of 2014, Sony and MS had shipped "nearly 30M" combined. We don't know if that means 29.5M or 29.99M. Hell, even 29 is "nearly 30." So while it's not a solid number to calculate from, at least it provides us with an upper bound for XB3 shipments; 30M - PS4 shipments. So if we're guessing Sony's LTD to be 19.5M, that would cap XB3 shipments at 10.5M. They shipped 3.9M in 2013, which would give them a maximum of 6.6M shipped in 2014. But, we're still guessing at Sony's number. If Sony only shipped 19.3M, then XB3 could be as high as 10.7M, but if Sony shipped 19.7M, that would cap MS at only 10.3M.

Once we get solid numbers from Sony, we can do the final math and determine the real cap on XB3 shipments. At that point, the only question will be exactly how much rounding AMD did.

thanks, mandem. much appreciated

 

[The Artisan]

It will indeed be interesting to see if The Order is a system seller or not.

It won't be, but you can bet your ass that bloodborne will.

 

[The Artisan]

EDIT : sorry, meant to make a thread

 

[ZhugeEX]

Sony have sold 18.5M through 2014 (effectively), so their shipment was likely around the 19.5M mark, give or take a few hundred thousand. They shipped 4.5M in 2013, so that would be 15.5M in 2014, give or take.

AMD recently told us that at the end of 2014, Sony and MS had shipped "nearly 30M" combined. We don't know if that means 29.5M or 29.99M. Hell, even 29 is "nearly 30." So while it's not a solid number to calculate from, at least it provides us with an upper bound for XB3 shipments; 30M - PS4 shipments. So if we're guessing Sony's LTD to be 19.5M, that would cap XB3 shipments at 10.5M. They shipped 3.9M in 2013, which would give them a maximum of 6.6M shipped in 2014. But, we're still guessing at Sony's number. If Sony only shipped 19.3M, then XB3 could be as high as 10.7M, but if Sony shipped 19.7M, that would cap MS at only 10.3M.

Once we get solid numbers from Sony, we can do the final math and determine the real cap on XB3 shipments. At that point, the only question will be exactly how much rounding AMD did.

The issue I have, is that MS sold through ~4.4m Xbox One's to end users in 2014.
They sold through 3.0m at the end of 2013. So using some very basic maths and estimation we can say that at an absolute minimum, MS will have sold through at least 7.4m consoles to end users by the end of 2014.

Of course we know that ~1.8m was sold through in the USA in 2013 leaving 1.2m sold through worldwide at that point. Using that same ratio we can say that around ~2.9m could have been sold outside of the USA in 2014. But obviously the ratio probably won't be as high as that or at least won't be any higher than that. In the UK we know that 364k was sold through in 2013 and cumulative 1m+ in 2014 so if we add that to the total number of 7.4m then we get around 8.2m cumulative, add 170k from Germany and we get to around 8.4m, then I can safely say...........

that anywhere between 8.4m-10.3m Xbox One's have been sold worldwide to end users as of the end of 2014. Could be higher than this but unlikely.

Also sell through for 2014 would be over 5.4m in USA+UK+GER in 2014.

That's why I'm fairly certain the shipped number will be closer to 11m than 10m.

 

[serversurfer]

I still wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.

18.5 + "over 10 million" is close enough to reach a nearly 30 million figure.

I don't think it's ass sourcing so much as it is them using the best information available to achieve a figure for their console APU business.

They're telling their shareholders how much of their product has been sold to retail. I'm pretty sure they're obligated to provide something better than a "best guess" or similar.

But that's dumb. Just because they are behind Ps4 sales doesn't mean they have to shy away from telling the public what they've managed to sell, and just have the public guesstimating their numbers ALL the time.

I suspect that many of the guesstimates will paint a far rosier picture than would reality.

It will indeed be interesting to see if The Order is a system seller or not.

I expect The Order and Bloodborne and in some markets, The Show, will help keep sales healthy in the beginning of the year, even in the face of Microsoft's continued price cuts. None of them are real "system sellers" like GT or Halo, but I expect them to collectively draw a fair amount of attention, especially once Bloodborne release in March.

 

[Raist]

I still wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.

18.5 + "over 10 million" is close enough to reach a nearly 30 million figure.

I don't think it's ass sourcing so much as it is them using the best information available to achieve a figure for their console APU business.

Pretty sure they know exactly how many APUs they manufactured at this point in time and that's what their figure is based on.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

Pretty sure they know exactly how many APUs they manufactured at this point in time and that's what their figure is based on.

The number of APU's manufactured is going to be different than the number assembled into a full console and then shipped to retail.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

They're telling their shareholders how much of their product has been sold to retail. I'm pretty sure they're obligated to provide something better than a "best guess" or similar.

It's not really a guess. It's just using the information that is made publicly.
They could be using another methodology, but I wouldn't really rely on AMD's number breakdown to extrapolate anything meaningful that we didn't already know.

 

[Oppo]

It will indeed be interesting to see if The Order is a system seller or not.

It won't be, but you can bet your ass that bloodborne will.

The rate the PS4 is selling, how would you even tell?

 

[serversurfer]

The issue I have, is that MS sold through ~4.4m Xbox One's to end users in 2014.
They sold through 3.0m at the end of 2013. So using some very basic maths and estimation we can say that at an absolute minimum, MS will have sold through at least 7.4m consoles to end users by the end of 2014.

Of course we know that ~1.8m was sold through in the USA in 2013 leaving 1.2m sold through worldwide at that point. Using that same ratio we can say that around ~2.9m could have been sold outside of the USA in 2014. But obviously the ratio probably won't be as high as that or at least won't be any higher than that. In the UK we know that 364k was sold through in 2013 and cumulative 1m+ in 2014 so if we add that to the total number of 7.4m then I can safely say...........

that anywhere between 8.2m-10.3m Xbox One's have been sold worldwide to end users as of the end of 2014.

Also sell through for 2014 would be over 5.2m in USA+UK in 2014.

That's why I'm fairly certain the shipped number will be closer to 11m than 10m.

Sorry, 4.4M is 2014 US NPD?

Rather than simply saying, "Could be as much as 2.9M," it seems like it would actually be better to look at some of the 2013->2014 numbers from the markets in question. We can probably get a fairly good idea of how their non-US demand has actually held up post-launch. I'd buy 8.2M as the floor, but 10.3M seems like a stretch. I'd say 8.5M-9.5M would be a better "estimate" but I guess you're right about it being "unlikely to be outside this range." Make sense?

Sell through is hard, because even once we determine their shipping cap, we still won't really know if they're sitting on 1M unsold, or 2M unsold, or more, or less. Their shipments over the next few quarters will actually give us the clearest indication of what they're likely sitting on today. Given retail anecdotes and behavior, I imagine they're sitting on quite a bit of stock, which is part of the reason I expect 2015 shipments to be lower than 2014 shipments.

 

[theprodigy]

Sorry, 4.4M is 2014 US NPD?

Rather than simply saying, "Could be as much as 2.9M," it seems like it would actually be better to look at some of the 2013->2014 numbers from the markets in question. We can probably get a fairly good idea of how their non-US demand has actually held up post-launch. I'd buy 8.2M as the floor, but 10.3M seems like a stretch. I'd say 8.5M-9.5M would be a better "estimate" but I guess you're right about it being "unlikely to be outside this range." Make sense?

Sell through is hard, because even once we determine their shipping cap, we still won't really know if they're sitting on 1M unsold, or 2M unsold, or more, or less. Their shipments over the next few quarters will actually give us the clearest indication of what they're likely sitting on today. Given retail anecdotes and behavior, I imagine they're sitting on quite a bit of stock, which is part of the reason I expect 2015 shipments to be lower than 2014 shipments.

8.2M is absolutely ridiculous, this would effectively imply the rest of the world outside US+UK has sold literally nothing in 2014, which obviously isn't true

really, it's probably at or slightly above 10 million

edit: wait is this shipments? probably closer to 11 million then if anything

 

[Raist]

The number of APU's manufactured is going to be different than the number assembled into a full console and then shipped to retail.

I never said they'll have an exact figure from that. But if they provided MS+Sony with say, 30M APUs, then they can safely assume that both companies total nearly 30M consoles shipped. In other words, they know exactly what an upper limit would be.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Sorry, 4.4M is 2014 US NPD?

Rather than simply saying, "Could be as much as 2.9M," it seems like it would actually be better to look at some of the 2013->2014 numbers from the markets in question. We can probably get a fairly good idea of how their non-US demand has actually held up post-launch. I'd buy 8.2M as the floor, but 10.3M seems like a stretch. I'd say 8.5M-9.5M would be a better "estimate" but I guess you're right about it being "unlikely to be outside this range." Make sense?

Sell through is hard, because even once we determine their shipping cap, we still won't really know if they're sitting on 1M unsold, or 2M unsold, or more, or less. Their shipments over the next few quarters will actually give us the clearest indication of what they're likely sitting on today. Given retail anecdotes and behavior, I imagine they're sitting on quite a bit of stock, which is part of the reason I expect 2015 shipments to be lower than 2014 shipments.

I've added an extra ~170k from Germany to 2014 which will take it to 8.4m minimum.

10.3m is not a stretch at all. It's perfectly achievable. Especially when you consider that Xbox One has certainly sold more than 7.3m units in just the UK and USA alone.

~850k accounted for the rest of the world in 2013 (2 months) outside of UK + USA. It's not hard to see 10m+ sold through. Even if again we just saw 850k in other regions again we are still left with a minimum of 9m sold through.

People need to realise that the Xbox One does have a market outside the USA.... a small one.... but it's there/

 

[Purest 78]

It will indeed be interesting to see if The Order is a system seller or not.

I don't think The Order is a system seller, but I think it will do well among ps4 owners.

 

[e-gamer]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

 

[orochi91]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

Really?

Can you link that?

Sony will probably be in deep shit if caught lying about sold/shipped figures.

 

[ZhugeEX]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.
.

Not this shit again....

 

[Crimson_Gold]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

The denial is strong in this one

Not this shit again....

This will be the case until Sony announces it's shipped numbers. But even then people will find a way to doubt those numbers too

 

[Leflus]

I've added an extra ~170k from Germany to 2014 which will take it to 8.4m minimum.

10.3m is not a stretch at all. It's perfectly achievable. Especially when you consider that Xbox One has certainly sold more than 7.2m units in just the UK and USA alone.

~850k accounted for the rest of the world in 2013 (2 months) outside of UK + USA. It's not hard to see 10m+ sold through.

+ 290K from France in 2014
+ 40K from Japan in 2014

+ 100K from China in 2014 (shipment numbers)

Edit: vvv Ah.

 

[serversurfer]

Edit: ^^^ The 100k in China was shipped, not sold. MS declined to comment on sell-through in China.

8.2M is absolutely ridiculous, this would effectively imply the rest of the world outside US+UK has sold literally nothing in 2014, which obviously isn't true

Well, right, which was sorta my point. The range given — 8.2M-10.3M — was more of a range of absolute limits than anything else. I don't think 8.2M would be "a good guess," but I don't think 10.3M is likely any better.

edit: wait is this shipments? probably closer to 11 million then if anything

No, we're talking about sales. Based on AMD's statement, LTD shipments for XB3 are likely ~10.5M, give or take a few points.

I never said they'll have an exact figure from that. But if they provided MS+Sony with say, 30M APUs, then they can safely assume that both companies total nearly 30M consoles shipped. In other words, they know exactly what an upper limit would be.

They told their shareholders how much of their product was in the hands of retail. Again, I think they need to provide something better than "could be as much as." Unless we're going to start questioning all quarterlies from all companies, we should take AMD's statement to mean that just shy of 30M combined have been shipped to retail, because that's exactly what they said.

I've added an extra ~170k from Germany to 2014 which will take it to 8.4m minimum.

10.3m is not a stretch at all. It's perfectly achievable. Especially when you consider that Xbox One has certainly sold more than 7.2m units in just the UK and USA alone.

I'd say 10.3M would be quite a stretch, if only because it's unlikely their shipments are significantly higher than 10.5M, and we haven't heard anything about shortages. Just the opposite, in fact; we have reports of heavy stocks, and the return of the discounts, with retailers sometimes dipping in to their own pockets to provide the subsidies.

Adding in the 170k from Germany is a good plan though. I suggest you continue in that fashion and see how much higher than 9M you can get.

 

[EatMyFace]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

So many mistakes. Not just grammar and spelling.

 

[Akainu]

But that's dumb. Just because they are behind Ps4 sales doesn't mean they have to shy away from telling the public what they've managed to sell, and just have the public guesstimating their numbers ALL the time.

Got to save face.

 

[Kayant]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

And am sure you have evidence disproving what they have said.

 

[ZhugeEX]

+ 290K from France in 2014
+ 40K from Japan in 2014

+ 100K from China in 2014 (shipment numbers)

Edit: vvv Ah.

Thanks for this.

Soooo....

2014
4,400k USA
~800k UK
170k+ GER
270k FRA
40k JP

2013
1,800k USA
364k UK
~840k ROW (11 markets)

Gives us a minimum of at least ~8.7m sold through to end users as of Dec 31st 2014. And that's with at least 7.3m+ sold in UK + USA alone + 840k ROW in 2013 + GER + FRA + JP 2014 numbers.

So yes.... looks like it could be over 10m as I said. If 11 markets sold 840k in 2 months, and GER + FRA + JP sold more than half that in 2014 alone + new markets were launched then that evidence right shows sell through will be much higher than the 8.7m minimum base line I've worked out.

Do we have any country numbers for X1 in 2014? I've left out China for now. (Although if 1% of the population in China yada yada yada....)

 

[Aquamarine]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

sony's "sold-through" figures are indeed estimates.

but they are one of the most intelligently-produced estimates of sell-through to customers possible.

sony uses ipc to directly track the sell-through of their consoles.

sony frequently calls all of their major retail partners for sell-through updates.

sony incorporates information from respected sell-through trackers like npd, gfk, and famitsu.


trust me....sony's ability to estimate sell-through to customers is some of the best in the business. they are really, really, really good at their job.


when sony says 18.5 million sold-through to customers, we need to believe it 100%. no exceptions.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

Sorny lied

omg THEY LIED

 

[Nightengale]

For those in denial, it's only one week plus more before we get official Q3 shipment figures for the PS4 anyway.

Once we know the official YTD 31st December shipment figures for PS4, then we can stop it with the hurr durr shipment = sold-through nonsense.

 

[Verendus]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

For what it's worth, I'm on your side. It's me and you against the world man.

 

[IndoAssassin]

Not this shit again....

Lol until we get official shipped numbers from both parties, this thread is going to go in circles

 

[Welfare]

I've added an extra ~170k from Germany to 2014 which will take it to 8.4m minimum.

10.3m is not a stretch at all. It's perfectly achievable. Especially when you consider that Xbox One has certainly sold more than 7.2m units in just the UK and USA alone.

Even then, you are assuming that the Xbox One is only at 1 million in the UK, and not higher. It could be as high as 1.4m or 1.5m. That would bring Xbox One LTD in those 2 countries to either 7.6m or 7.7m.

We also got updated France figures. They sold 126k in 2013, and sold an additional 290k in 2014 (a 2.3x increase). Now the LTD is either 8.0m or 8.1m.

Just adding in the rest of what was sold in 2013 to this (minus US,UK,and France since we have them already), that is 693k, so the LTD is either 8.7m or 8.8m

Last known numbers for Germany and Spain were 270k and 51k respectively. The German number doesn't include December and the Spain number was back from October.

Adding in those out of date numbers from 2014 (Germany sold 100k in 2013, Spain 35k), the LTD is either 8.9m or 9m. Lets quickly add in Japan as that won't affect the LTD that much.

So now then. 8.9m or 9m. That was made with updated US numbers, and estimate of the UK, updated France numbers, adding in the rest of the numbers from 2013, using outdated figures for Germany and Spain, and Japan. That is using just 6 countries for the entirety of 2013 and 2014. We still have to add in not only the other 8 countries that the Xbox One sold in 2013, and get their 2014 number, but the other 28 countries the Xbox One launched in 2014.

So using 558k as a base (the remaining total from subtracting US, UK, Germany, France, and Spain), if for some reason the remaining 8 countries sold exactly the same in 2014 from 2013, the LTD would be 9.5m or 9.6m.

Look at that. At a bare minimum, we have 9.5m from just using some up to date numbers, outdated numbers, and assuming 8 countries sold exactly the same amount of units in 2014 compared to 2013. I guess we're done right? No? Oh yeah. What about the 28 other countries?

10 million is guaranteed. At a max I would say the Xbox One has sold 10.5m with shipments at 11m.

 

[serversurfer]

For those in denial, it's only one week plus more before we get official Q3 shipment figures for the PS4 anyway.

Once we know the official YTD 31st December shipment figures for PS4, then we can stop it with the hurr durr shipment = sold-through nonsense.

Right. Then we'll be able to start on nonsense like, "Well, if Sony had 1M unsold, then I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume MS have 200k unsold, regardless of what retail is telling us. After all, it's selling better than the PS4, so obviously, their stocks will be much lower."

Regarding the 42% figure that was being discussed earlier, nobody really addressed the elephant in the room; how many developers will see "less than half of less than half of the market" as a demographic worth pursuing? Especially when those users are quite regionalized and their platform holder holds devs to forced parity? I can see smaller devs with smaller games passing on that, which will in turn affect hardware sales, which in turn will cause more developers to stop bothering. A lot of people seem to think "having almost half the US is actually pretty huge," but in reality, that's only about 20% of the overall market, which ain't much at all.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Even then, you are assuming that the Xbox One is only at 1 million in the UK, and not higher. It could be as high as 1.4m or 1.5m. That would bring Xbox One LTD in those 2 countries to either 7.6m or 7.7m.

We also got updated France figures. They sold 126k in 2013, and sold an additional 290k in 2014 (a 2.3x increase). Now the LTD is either 8.0m or 8.1m.

Just adding in the rest of what was sold in 2013 to this (minus US,UK,and France since we have them already), that is 693k, so the LTD is either 8.7m or 8.8m

Last known numbers for Germany and Spain were 270k and 51k respectively. The German number doesn't include December and the Spain number was back from October.

Adding in those out of date numbers from 2014 (Germany sold 100k in 2013, Spain 35k), the LTD is either 8.9m or 9m. Lets quickly add in Japan as that won't affect the LTD that much.

So now then. 8.9m or 9m. That was made with updated US numbers, and estimate of the UK, updated France numbers, adding in the rest of the numbers from 2013, using outdated figures for Germany and Spain, and Japan. That is using just 6 countries for the entirety of 2013 and 2014. We still have to add in not only the other 8 countries that the Xbox One sold in 2013, and get their 2014 number, but the other 28 countries the Xbox One launched in 2014.

So using 558k as a base (the remaining total from subtracting US, UK, Germany, France, and Spain), if for some reason the remaining 8 countries sold exactly the same in 2014 from 2013, the LTD would be 9.5m or 9.6m.

Look at that. At a bare minimum, we have 9.5m from just using some up to date numbers, outdated numbers, and assuming 8 countries sold exactly the same amount of units in 2014 compared to 2013. I guess we're done right? No? Oh yeah. What about the 28 other countries?

10 million is guaranteed. At a max I would say the Xbox One has sold 10.5m with shipments at 11m.

This is pretty much what I've been trying to say for a long time. Thanks for summarising it in an easy to understand way.

I've been saying for a long time that people have been low balling Xbox One sales. In fact I predicted last year (around this time) that the PS4 would sell more than 18m units cumulative before the end of the year and people called me crazy and said it would never happen. Even my prediction was too low at the end of the day. I also said that X1 and PS4 cumulative would be around ~30m and looks like I was right again.

Whilst I may work in the telecommunications industry and get access to insider information there, I have a huge passion for the gaming industry (consoles) and apply the same forecasting techniques. It's why pretty much all of my predictions came true, give or take a small amount. For example, I very recently accurately predicted the total sales for each SKU of Dynasty Warriors 8 empires in Japan. I was about 5k out in the end.

Yes I know that what I've written sounds very arrogant, but I'm not just making these numbers up. I do somewhat know what I'm talking about.

 

[Alo0oy]

Sony wants to keep making a profit on each unit sold, if they can't do that at $300 they will drop the price to $350, even if it costs $310 to make a PS4. Then again, I have no idea how much it costs to make a PS4 right now and know even less about how much it will cost to make one by, say, September. I'm keeping my guess for a price drop this year at $350, but will be pleasantly surprised if they can drop it to $300. Though I guess a $100 dollar price drop this year would line up pretty well with the PS2 and PS3.

Sony wants to make profit long term, & in the console market most of the profit comes from licensing revenue, profits on the hardware are completely irrelevant & market share is 10 times more important especially for the long term.

 

[The Artisan]

I suspect that many of the guesstimates will paint a far rosier picture than would reality.

That may be true, but I kinda want the real number. I'm sure I ain't the only one. mS hiding it just because it's not as good as the Ps4's is kinda pathetic. Did sony hide Ps3's sales numbers from 2006-2008/9?

The rate the PS4 is selling, how would you even tell?

Good point. However, if we're talking just U.S/NPDs, we'll see a considerable spike next month and the month after if these two games do indeed end up being system sellers.

Got to save face.

no they don't. they've already made a legacy for themselves with the 360. as successful as that system was though, it wasn't able to make the Ps3 trail behind and be forgotten. In the end, they tied.

which is telling since the gen before that the Ps2 kicked everyone's ass. I think it's just fair to say the PlayStation brand is stronger than the Xbox's, but the Xbox itself is no slouch.

 

[spatenfloot]

Lol until we get official shipped numbers from both parties, this thread is going to go in circles

Don't worry. I am sure those numbers will be lies too. The bastards.

 

[GnawtyDog]

The numbers are being debated now? Lol. Figured something had to be up causing the bumps.

 

[Rymuth]

As I told before, "sold-throught" was a smart term for shipped.

AMD just confirmed that.

We all could read at the bottom of the sony's statement that it was SCEI estimatives.

Of course, because them have the control over factories and distribution. But nothing more.

It was never real SOLD.

Told before to whom? Where? Context, man.