I've added an extra ~170k from Germany to 2014 which will take it to 8.4m minimum.
10.3m is not a stretch at all. It's perfectly achievable. Especially when you consider that Xbox One has certainly sold more than 7.2m units in just the UK and USA alone.
Even then, you are assuming that the Xbox One is only at 1 million in the UK, and not higher. It could be as high as 1.4m or 1.5m. That would bring Xbox One LTD in those 2 countries to either 7.6m or 7.7m.
We also got updated France figures. They sold 126k in 2013, and sold an additional 290k in 2014 (a 2.3x increase). Now the LTD is either 8.0m or 8.1m.
Just adding in the rest of what was sold in 2013 to this (minus US,UK,and France since we have them already), that is 693k, so the LTD is either 8.7m or 8.8m
Last known numbers for Germany and Spain were 270k and 51k respectively. The German number doesn't include December and the Spain number was back from October.
Adding in those out of date numbers from 2014 (Germany sold 100k in 2013, Spain 35k), the LTD is either 8.9m or 9m. Lets quickly add in Japan as that won't affect the LTD that much.
So now then. 8.9m or 9m. That was made with updated US numbers, and estimate of the UK, updated France numbers, adding in the rest of the numbers from 2013, using outdated figures for Germany and Spain, and Japan. That is using just 6 countries for the entirety of 2013 and 2014. We still have to add in not only the other 8 countries that the Xbox One sold in 2013, and get their 2014 number, but the other 28 countries the Xbox One launched in 2014.
So using 558k as a base (the remaining total from subtracting US, UK, Germany, France, and Spain), if for some reason the remaining 8 countries sold exactly the same in 2014 from 2013, the LTD would be 9.5m or 9.6m.
Look at that. At a bare minimum, we have 9.5m from just using some up to date numbers, outdated numbers, and assuming 8 countries sold exactly the same amount of units in 2014 compared to 2013. I guess we're done right? No? Oh yeah. What about the 28 other countries?
10 million is guaranteed. At a max I would say the Xbox One has sold 10.5m with shipments at 11m.