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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

allan-bh

Member
Since then, the franchise sold an additional 13 million units. UC3 very likely sold ~10 million of that, the remaining 3 million can be attributed to the double pack re-release & legacy sales.

If that's true Uncharted must be huge in Europe because with less than 840K in first NPD, 10m WW sounds too much.

Maybe Uncharted 3 was sold in bundle for a long time, I don't remember...


Edit: In fact I remembered that PS3 Super Slim was packed-in with Uncharted 3.
 

Ricky_R

Member
It is weird that Sony never mentioned 10 million, but we didn't get any update on TLOU sales since August 2014 (it was 8 million), & that game has been bundled with nearly every PS4 since last holiday, so that game probably crossed the 10 million mark easily by the end of last year with no PR in sight yet.

I don't think TLOU's bundle sales should factor in considering the game is owned by Sony. Unless retailers need to pay for the games...?

I mean, technically, it's another game being "bought" with the bundle, but it isn't an actual sale, imo. If the bundle was $450 then it would be easier for me to take them into account. It's not like a bundle with a third party game where the studio/publisher gets paid for it.

Anyway, I'm sure it doesn't work the way I'm imagining.
 

Kill3r7

Member
If that's true Uncharted must be huge in Europe because with less than 840K in first NPD, 10m WW sounds too much.

Maybe Uncharted 3 was sold in bundle for a long time, I don't remember...

I suspect both the Halo 3 numbers and Uncharted probably include GwG and PS+ downloads as well.
 

LycanXIII

Member
Phil Spencer is happy about Halo 5 sales, so I guess Halo 5 did really well in US (I doubt it doing that well in other countries).

Ou8pJjQ.png


https://twitter.com/XboxP3/status/661272574156902400

Didn't Sony say the same thing about The Order: 1886?
 

Ricky_R

Member
Didn't Sony say the same thing about The Order: 1886?

Not that I remember... Certainly not in the same way Phil expressed his happiness.

RAD did say recently that they were meeting expectations for the game though...

Anyway, no matter how bad Halo sells, it will still be a shitload more than The Order
 

Alo0oy

Banned
If that's true Uncharted must be huge in Europe because with 840K in first NPD, 10m WW sounds too much.

Maybe Uncharted 3 was sold in bundle for a long time, I don't remember...

We don't have sales data for Europe unfortunately, but it did show impressive legs, the game released in November 2011, in February 2012 for example (four months after launch) it was #9 in Germany, #3 in Italy, #7 in Spain, if you pick any random PAL chart within the first six months, you'll see UC3 somewhere in the top 10 in many markets, selling better than a lot of new releases as well.

EDIT: I just picked another random week in February, & UC3 was #1 in Germany & #2 in Italy.

EDIT: Browsing through the 2012 PAL threads, UC3 had better legs than Modern Warfare 3 in Europe.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I don't think TLOU's bundle sales should factor in considering the game is owned by Sony. Unless retailers need to pay for the games...?

I mean, technically, it's another game being "bought" with the bundle, but it isn't an actual sale, imo. If the bundle was $450 then it would be easier for me to take them into account. It's not like a bundle with a third party game where the studio/publisher gets paid for it.

Anyway, I'm sure it doesn't work the way I'm imagining.

They always do count bundled sales though, Gran Turismo 3 & Halo 3 are prime examples, both were heavily bundled & it didn't stop them from counting them.
 

Ricky_R

Member
They always do count bundled sales though, Gran Turismo 3 & Halo 3 are prime examples, both were heavily bundled & it didn't stop them from counting them.

That's weird, now that I think about it. How do you count a game that you're basically gifting, as an actual sale?
 
That's weird, now that I think about it. How do you count a game that you're basically gifting, as an actual sale?
Isn't this one of the reasons why wii sports broke all records?

Just to spin this further, minesweeper should count as bestseller then.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I made an avatar bet with Ryng_Tolu, if Splatoon sells more than 4 million by the end of Q3 next year, he wins, if it's less than 4 million, I win.

You guys are the witnesses.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I made an avatar bet with Ryng_Tolu, if Splatoon sells more than 4 million by the end of Q3 next year, he wins, if it's less than 4 million, I win.

You guys are the witnesses.

Oh Alo0oy... you will learn a lesson: NEVER made a bet with Ryng Tolu about Splatoon.

You aren't the first guy who made a similar bet with me... ;)
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Stop before will become too late... i already made some screenshot for the year to come.

12208596_169075846772809_6934798882642377388_n.jpg

You seem very confident about your numbers, but you're gonna get depressed by the end of this quarter, Splatoon is already slipping in Japan, and it completely left the PAL charts.
 

Boke1879

Member
DO you guys realize how close everything is right now? In a few days we get COD and 4 days later we get Fallout 4 and Tomb Raider. Then a week later we get Battlefront then like a week after that we get Black Friday.

Guys....Preseason is officially over.
 

Ricky_R

Member
Isn't this one of the reasons why wii sports broke all records?

Just to spin this further, minesweeper should count as bestseller then.

Omg, you're right. That and Solitaire must be the biggest sellers ever.

It doesn't really matter, if a consumer has his/her hands on the game, then it's a unit sold.

I know, but it's still weird, specially when the platform holder owns said game. Do Sony's PS+ free games count as sales? Because it's essentially the same thing.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I know, but it's still weird, specially when the platform holder owns said game. Do Sony's PS+ free games count as sales? Because it's essentially the same thing.

PS+ games & GwG do not count as sales, it's not the same thing at all.
 
Has anyone noticed Amazon Monthly Charts keep changing? This is the first time I've seen that:

New October update:

20) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
25) Halo 5 LE XB1 Bundle
26) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle*
42) CoD LE PS4 Bundle*
45) TLOU PS4 Bundle
57) Destiny TTK PS4 Bundle
80) Gears XB1 Bundle
90) Star Wars Standard PS4 Bundle*

*Pre-order

P.S.
Star Wars and CoD preparing to dominate November
 

Ricky_R

Member
PS+ games & GwG do not count as sales, it's not the same thing at all.

How is it not? The game is being offered for no extra cost, the only thing that changes is the way you're getting it. Hell, TLOU's been offered via download code, you're just getting that code for free on a console box.

It isn't for Sony because their business plan dictates it that way? then great, but downloading the game on PS+ or getting a free code on the box is pretty much the same thing. They just count only one of them as sale for whatever reason.
 

FATALITY

Banned
Yeah, we don't know sales for every individual title, 7 million is the minimum because it's the average across 3 titles. But it can't be 7 million because the first game sold like shit (relatively).

first one sold 2.5m when u2 was annouced
 

Boke1879

Member
Has anyone noticed Amazon Monthly Charts keep changing? This is the first time I've seen that:

New October update:

20) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
25) Halo 5 LE XB1 Bundle
26) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle*
42) CoD LE PS4 Bundle*
45) TLOU PS4 Bundle
57) Destiny TTK PS4 Bundle
80) Gears XB1 Bundle
90) Star Wars Standard PS4 Bundle*

*Pre-order

P.S.
Star Wars and CoD preparing to dominate November

November is going to be crazy. So UC PS4 is now 5 spots above the Halo bundle?
 
Ahh you're right. It was 19 so 6 spots above. Yea November is going to be crazy. I'm actually shocked the COD LE bundle is doing so well.
It makes me wonder what position it would be at if it were still at $450. I think the power of CoD is just going strong as usual.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
How is it not? The game is being offered for no extra cost, the only thing that changes is the way you're getting it. Hell, TLOU's been offered via download code, you're just getting that code for free on a console box.

It isn't for Sony because their business plan dictates it that way? then great, but downloading the game on PS+ or getting a free code on the box is pretty much the same thing. They just count only one of them as sale for whatever reason.

A game bundled with the hardware is usually considered added value, most bundles are sold at +50$ MSRP, it might look confusing right now because the PS4 & XB1 are being sold at 349$ with a game bundled in, but both consoles are effectively 299$ MSRP.
 

jbluzb

Member
Do we have a PR spin for Halo 5 first week sales? Interested as to adjust my npd prediction based on that input.
 

Ricky_R

Member
A game bundled with the hardware is usually considered added value, most bundles are sold at +50$ MSRP, it might look confusing right now because the PS4 & XB1 are being sold at 349$ with a game bundled in, but both consoles are effectively 299$ MSRP.

But what are free PS+ games if not added value? To the service I mean...

Btw, what do you mean both consoles are $299 MSRP? Admittedly, I'm not too knowledgeable on the topic, but isn't MSRP the suggested price by Sony and MS? Afaik, retailers are selling at the suggested price with the exception of usual season deals, etc.

In any case, Sony added a TLOU:R code to the PS4 for a decent amount of time while the system was at $400, even when there was still a standard system available for some time at the same price, with no bundled game. I just don't get it, and like I said my earlier post... it's weird to me that a platform holder includes a first party game to their system for free and still count it as a sale, but in the case of PS+ they don't.

In the case of third party bundles, I understand since, regardless of the deal, Sony has to pay for those copies.

I don't know, I just find it somewhat misleading.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Do we have a PR spin for Halo 5 first week sales? Interested as to adjust my npd prediction based on that input.
I was expecting it yesterday, but it could also be out today.
If nothing comes out today by 4pm PST, this will be telling imo.
 

Ricky_R

Member
It's been wrong once and that was when the XB1 beat the PS4 by 7k. If it's wrong this time, it won't change the fact it's right nearly all of the time.

It wasn't really wrong iirc. There was another Xbone SKU close enough during the time that apparently had an effect.

Maybe someone can explain better though, as I'm not Amazon hourly/monthly charts certified.
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
It wasn't really wrong iirc. There was another Xbone SKU close enough during the time that apparently had an effect.

Someone else can explain in detail as I'm not Amazon hourly/monthly charts certified.

Yeah, I know, I've had this discussion elsewhere and it was clear why the leading Bundle didn't win that month, but I'm a traditionalist and in keeping with the spirit of how the Amazon charts came to light, I'm just going to judge it on who is at the top of that list for the month. The details can be discussed at a later date. Generally speaking though, this is how I see it when it's close. I'm just giving an example and not representing the number of bundles:

P
X
P
P

Definite win

P
X
P
X

A win but not so clear

P
X
X
X

Probably a win but you never know.

This month looks like the first scenario but it has to be noted that two of the Bundles don't count towards this month.
 

Ricky_R

Member
Yeah, I know, I've had this discussion elsewhere and it was clear why the leading Bundle didn't win that month, but I'm a traditionalist and in keeping with the spirit of how the Amazon charts came to light, I'm just going to judge it on who is at the top of that list for the month. The details can be discussed at a later date.

Fair enough you ugly monster.
 

Javin98

Banned
Has anyone noticed Amazon Monthly Charts keep changing? This is the first time I've seen that:

New October update:

20) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
25) Halo 5 LE XB1 Bundle
26) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle*
42) CoD LE PS4 Bundle*
45) TLOU PS4 Bundle
57) Destiny TTK PS4 Bundle
80) Gears XB1 Bundle
90) Star Wars Standard PS4 Bundle*

*Pre-order

P.S.
Star Wars and CoD preparing to dominate November
Strange, the Uncharted bundle actually dropped by one spot while the Halo 5 bundle retained its position? Honestly, this is the hardest month to predict. Still, I think you're reading too much into the monthly charts. :p
 
Has anyone noticed Amazon Monthly Charts keep changing? This is the first time I've seen that:

New October update:

20) Uncharted PS4 Bundle
25) Halo 5 LE XB1 Bundle
26) Star Wars LE PS4 Bundle*
42) CoD LE PS4 Bundle*
45) TLOU PS4 Bundle
57) Destiny TTK PS4 Bundle
80) Gears XB1 Bundle
90) Star Wars Standard PS4 Bundle*

*Pre-order

P.S.
Star Wars and CoD preparing to dominate November

Iooking at the US market I find it crazy MS did not release an offical bundle with a standard console and Halo 5 (maybe even MCC download code) for $399. Only offering a LE seems to limit possible sales. Sony seem to have been smart in offering standard and LE bundles.

P.S The COD PS4 console must be up there with the worst looking LE. I guess its not aimed at a gamer approaching 40 :)
 

Pernicious Panda

Unconfirmed Member
Is the consensus now that the PS4 and XBO will be very close, with the leader unpredictable?

But what are free PS+ games if not added value? To the service I mean...

In any case, Sony added a TLOU:R code to the PS4 for a decent amount of time while the system was at $400, even when there was still a standard system available for some time at the same price, with no bundled game. I just don't get it, and like I said my earlier post... it's weird to me that a platform holder includes a first party game to their system for free and still count it as a sale, but in the case of PS+ they don't.

In the case of third party bundles, I understand since, regardless of the deal, Sony has to pay for those copies.

I don't know, I just find it somewhat misleading.

Well, here's how I see this.

Bundled games aren't free, they're part of the package that you're paying for. Once a bundle is bought, the customer 'owns' a copy of the game. Sure, some people who buy a bundle may not necessarily want a particular game in the bundle they bought, but they still paid for a copy of it that they can sell or give away to someone who does.

With PS+, people don't actually have any permanent entitlement to the games. There's no ownership there, and no money directly exchanged by the users for the games.

So, counting a bundled game sale as a sale isn't wrong or misleading, because that's exactly what it is. If someone was to sell ten million copies of a game, but nine million of them were from bundles, it would greatly lessen how impressive the ten million sales were, true, but it wouldn't make it untrue that ten million copies were sold to consumers.
 
Strange, the Uncharted bundle actually dropped by one spot while the Halo 5 bundle retained its position? Honestly, this is the hardest month to predict. Still, I think you're reading too much into the monthly charts. :p

It's not so much that the Uncharted bundle dropped one spot but more that CoD went up and sold more than the bundle this month xD
 

Javin98

Banned
It's not so much that the Uncharted bundle dropped one spot but more that CoD went up and sold more than the bundle this month xD
Oh, so, basically, not much changes at all? Damn, if I keep relying on these charts, I'm never gonna make my predictions!
 

Ricky_R

Member
Is the consensus now that the PS4 and XBO will be very close, with the leader unpredictable?



Well, here's how I see this.

Bundled games aren't free, they're part of the package that you're paying for. Once a bundle is bought, the customer 'owns' a copy of the game. Sure, some people who buy a bundle may not necessarily want a particular game in the bundle they bought, but they still paid for a copy of it that they can sell or give away to someone who does.

With PS+, people don't actually have any permanent entitlement to the games. There's no ownership there, and no money directly exchanged by the users for the games.

So, counting a bundled game sale as a sale isn't wrong or misleading, because that's exactly what it is. If someone was to sell ten million copies of a game, but nine million of them were from bundles, it would greatly lessen how impressive the ten million sales were, true, but it wouldn't make it untrue that ten million copies were sold to consumers.

You make a good point and I wasn't looking it that way. I was relating it more to the fact that Sony doesn't really get any revenue from the game they include (talking about first party here). So while it's technically a sale because you're buying the bundle in which the game is in, I still don't think it's an actual game sale.

I seems to be convenient for Sony, or MS and Nintendo for that matter, to count those as sales, but it's definitely not the same as a shipped game. Now they have the benefit that they can add download codes, but before the digital push, they probably lost money on every physical bundled game.

Concerning the difference between bundled and PS+ games, I guess you're right. Forgot the little detail that you don't really own the game.
 

The God

Member
I will never understand why Phil, Greenburg and Major Nelson interact with Tim Dog so much on Twitter, it's funny....I even think they gave him E3 passes this year...He is quite an interesting Twitter user...

Dude has some really toxic fanboy behavior.
 

Conduit

Banned
- No concrete numbers about Halo 5 sales from MS or 343i like for previous Halos.
- MS is pretty silent about this one.
- Low launch week sales in UK
- Uncharted bundle is in front of Halo 5 bundle on Amazon monthly chart, Abdiel's post about sales in Best Buy in his district, Gamestop sales in NYC

My prediction is that PS4 will win October.

[3DS] 60k
[PS4] 440k
[WIU] 30k
[XB1] 400k

If Xbone wins, than obvious reason is PS4 users bought Halo 5 bundle. :D

Btw. [Halo 5] 900k
 
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