Is the consensus now that the PS4 and XBO will be very close, with the leader unpredictable?
Well, here's how I see this.
Bundled games aren't free, they're part of the package that you're paying for. Once a bundle is bought, the customer 'owns' a copy of the game. Sure, some people who buy a bundle may not necessarily want a particular game in the bundle they bought, but they still paid for a copy of it that they can sell or give away to someone who does.
With PS+, people don't actually have any permanent entitlement to the games. There's no ownership there, and no money directly exchanged by the users for the games.
So, counting a bundled game sale as a sale isn't wrong or misleading, because that's exactly what it is. If someone was to sell ten million copies of a game, but nine million of them were from bundles, it would greatly lessen how impressive the ten million sales were, true, but it wouldn't make it untrue that ten million copies were sold to consumers.