Support NeoGAF

[Maintenance]

Nah, FFXV hurt itself in its confusion. It will sell based on name alone and that's it. I can see it doing well but not for the right reasons, doubt Square would care since money is what matters in the end.

 

[AzureFlame]

Director change harmed XV.

 

[Sterok]

Persona 5 needs to hit Fire Emblem numbers before it can dream of Final Fantasy.

XV will sell or flop on its own merits. It has no trouble getting eyes on it. Brand power and Square's marketing will ensure that. Whether or not people will like what they see and play is another matter.

 

[ar4757]

Persona 5 has the potential to do a million and possibly a bit more, but let's face it, the idea of it outselling FFXV is virtually impossible.

Way more profitable though, presumably

 

[Cleve]

There's plenty of great jrpgs now, the only way that 'harms' XV if is it's not outstanding. You can't really pull off mediocre any more and expect sales.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

That was first week sales for Uncharted.

That doesn't change the point. Persona 5's not going to make the same splash, or be as common in stores, or talked about in the public eye or advertised the same way as Uncharted 4.

Sony seem to be somewhat cagey with game sale numbers, but going off the (sourced) wikipedia page, how about a game that's relatively similar in stature (part of a niche franchise and in a niche genre), Bloodborne.

That game did at least 2 million as of late last year. That's also a game that had a highly prominent showcasing at Sony's E3 conference rather than only being on the show floor, and as one of the earlier PS4 exclusives attracted a lot of attention. It was a Japanese game but it didn't look it, with its art style and aesthetic noticeably western-influenced. It was a niche game being marketed as AAA by one of the biggest console publishers, and released simultaneously worldwide.

Persona 5 doesn't have any of those things going for it. The odds of it doing better are practically zero. I'm sure it'll do well, but let's not go crazy.

Persona 5 is on PS3 as well

In NA, it's launching on PS3 in 2017. Those sales are unlikely to be more than a drop in the bucket.

 

[VendettaRed07]

An overload of JRPGs? What? There's barely been a single game that could even qualify as one release so far this entire generation.

And any damage to FFXV has more to do with Square this last decade since FFXII came out, of nothing but delays and disappointments killing the FF brand. People are understandably extremely skeptical of Square given how crap they have been for so long.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Nah, FFXV hurt itself in its confusion. It will sell based on name alone and that's it. I can see it doing well but not for the right reasons, doubt Square would care since money is what matters in the end.

The amount of crow and salt that will amass this forum if FFxv is good will be enough to fill the galaxy I swear. What are the right reasons in your eyes.

 

[redcrayon]

As much as I'm looking forward to Ys VIII and Trails of CS2 far more than FFXV, it isn't the games on the OPs list that will hurt it as they are all very niche.

FF is a mainstream action game these days, what will hurt it is whether that mainstream audience who paid for XIII were disappointed or not, and whether there are more appealing big open-world AAA games coming out at the same time.

 

[Zhao_Yun]

Director change harmed XV.

While I kind of agree, I am also wondering whether the game would actually release in September if Nomura was still the Director. Pretty sure Square chose Tabata because they knew that he could get things done and at this point Square probably just wants to be done with this project and to move on.

 

[RalchAC]

What's the source for P4G doing a million?

Also, anyone know what's the best-selling non-Nintendo, non-Dragon Quest, non-FF RPG? I feel like the number of those that have done a million is pretty small. Persona 5 doing three million would be unprecedented three times over. I think P4 and Catherine are Atlus's best-selling games in the west and they've done nowhere near that much. Let's not forget that Horizon comes out just two weeks after.

Three million is like, better-selling than every Devil May Cry game. I think that's as much as Kingdom Hearts 1, or what, Tomb Raider 2013 numbers? A typical Monster Hunter? Three million is a ridiculous number.

Last time we got worldwide sales from P4G it was at 700k sales. That was late 2013. In April 2014 Atlus said it surpassed 350k copies shipped compared to 300k in October 2013.

And I think after that there was a budget version that did decently all things considered (maybe 30-40k sales?). The game has been on multiple PSN sales and still has great Word of Mouth.

It's probably between 800-900k units sold worldwide. Which is great considering is a port of a PS2 games that is being sold on a niche system.

Persona 5 should be able to surpass 1 million worldwide sales in a few months IMO. I think Sony is helping them with an anime and other stuff. Seems there is some sort of crossmedia project going on.

If the game is amazing and Atlus hits all the right notes (Europe, localisation in multiple languages...) I could see 2 million sales after all is said and done.

 

[chefbags]

The amount of crow and salt that will amass this forum if FFxv is good will be enough to fill the galaxy I swear. What are the right reasons in your eyes.

Nah not even the universe would be able to hold all of Gaf's salt.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Director change harmed XV.

Yup because Nomura announcing a game in 2006 and not having anything to show for it several years later is a lot better than Tabata taking over in 2012/2013 and getting to a point where the game can come out in 2016.

 

[Jonneh3003]

Can we try not to focus on the list so much? I cut off a ton of niche stuff to avoid the "no one will even buy those games" argument, its more a case that there are a lot of upcoming JRPGs and FFXV hasn't exactly been marketed well. I agree that a mass audience won't care for most other JRPGs outside of Pokemon.

 

[Zhao_Yun]

If the game is amazing and Atlus hits all the right notes (Europe, localisation in multiple languages...) I could see 2 million sales after all is said and done.

They don't even have a publisher for Europe yet and you expect them to localize it into multiple European languages? At this point they should just focus on getting the English version out for Europe which seems to be hard enough for them already, although it will be the exact same version the US will get...

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

Last time we got worldwide sales from P4G it was at 700k sales. That was late 2013. In April 2014 Atlus said it surpassed 350k copies shipped compared to 300k in October 2013.

And I think after that there was a budget version that did decently all things considered (maybe 30-40k sales?). The game has been on multiple PSN sales and still has great Word of Mouth.

It's probably between 800-900k units sold worldwide. Which is great considering is a port of a PS2 games that is being sold on a niche system.

Persona 5 should be able to surpass 1 million worldwide sales in a few months IMO. I think Sony is helping them with an anime and other stuff. Seems there is some sort of crossmedia project going on.

If the game is amazing and Atlus hits all the right notes (Europe, localisation in multiple languages...) I could see 2 million sales after all is said and done.

Ah, I see.

A million is doable. 2 million maaaybe, I feel like it might be a stretch, but it's what I'd say is probably the ceiling at this point. 1.3 - 1.5 million max seems more realistic but that's me.

The big thing is that they need to get a publisher in Europe, stat. Boggles my mind that they haven't figured that out, but for now I'm not holding my breath. EFIGS definitely wouldn't be happening simultaneously at this point unless something crazy super secret is going on.

 

[wmlk]

Can we try not to focus on the list so much? I cut off a ton of niche stuff to avoid the "no one will even buy those games" argument, its more a case that there are a lot of upcoming JRPGs and FFXV hasn't exactly been marketed well. I agree that a mass audience won't care for most other JRPGs outside of Pokemon.

Then what exactly is your argument if it isn't that other JRPGs are hurting FFXV? Marketing is an entirely separate thing.

 

[Lord of Ostia]

Persona 5 needs to hit Fire Emblem numbers before it can dream of Final Fantasy.

XV will sell or flop on its own merits. It has no trouble getting eyes on it. Brand power and Square's marketing will ensure that. Whether or not people will like what they see and play is another matter.

The fact that anyone mentions 'Fire Emblem numbers' as a milestone nowadays blows my mind. The series has really exploded in the last few years.

 

[jetsetnickradio]

Overload of JRPGs? News to me.

I think a terrible engine and a change of directors has affected FFXV way more than the trickle of medium to low budget JRPGs that have been coming out.

 

[Jonneh3003]

They don't even have a publisher for Europe yet and you expect them to localize it into multiple European languages? At this point they should just focus on getting the English version out for Europe which seems to be hard enough for them already although it will be the exact same version the US will get...

I'm pretty certain I'll be importing the American version, not use waiting for a localisation with the prices of Play Asia.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Can we try not to focus on the list so much? I cut off a ton of niche stuff to avoid the "no one will even buy those games" argument, its more a case that there are a lot of upcoming JRPGs and FFXV hasn't exactly been marketed well. I agree that a mass audience won't care for most other JRPGs outside of Pokemon.

Well if we ignore the list than what's the discussion about just the marketing? Why add the list other than to say "hey these games might be alot better than ffxv and might have better marketing"

 

[Ray Down]

Can we try not to focus on the list so much? I cut off a ton of niche stuff to avoid the "no one will even buy those games" argument, its more a case that there are a lot of upcoming JRPGs and FFXV hasn't exactly been marketed well. I agree that a mass audience won't care for most other JRPGs outside of Pokemon.

Still no because none of this other games are coming out yet. XV is the only huge new AAA JRPG to come out on PS4 and Xbox One. It's doesn't matter if we see others being announce or are coming out when ever.

 

[Zhao_Yun]

I'm pretty certain I'll be importing the American version, not use waiting for a localisation with the prices of Play Asia.

I will as well, but not every European will do that. If you want to have worldwide success you can't rely on all Europeans to import the game.

 

[AzureFlame]

While I kind of agree, I am also wondering whether the game would actually release in September if Nomura was still the Director. Pretty sure Square chose Tabata because they knew that he could get things done and at this point Square probably just wants to be done with this project and to move on.

I think Nomura wanted something like a trilogy for this game, i wish that it stayed a spin-off, but oh well.. at least now we are getting VII Remake.

 

[Jonneh3003]

Then what exactly is your argument if it isn't that JRPGs are hurting FFXV? Marketing is an entirely separate thing.

I do think other JRPGs will harm FFXV, if the competition looks better then a portion of the audience may just avoid XV, I don't think that will be the majority by any means but the my confidence in FFXV comes no where near to my confidence in I am Setsuna

 

[Inuhanyou]

No, the current content of FF15 has harmed it more than the fact that every other JRPG on the market exists.

The fact that those other games look far more confident in what they are trying to do helps a lot.

 

[Jonneh3003]

I will as well, but not every European will do that. If you want to have worldwide success you can't rely on all Europeans to import the game.

Indeed, I'm still disappointed SMT4 didn't get a physical release here.

 

[wmlk]

I do think other JRPGs will harm FFXV, if the competition looks better then a portion of the audience may just avoid XV, I don't think that will be the majority by any means but the my confidence in FFXV comes no where near to my confidence in I am Setsuna

Those JRPGs aren't exactly the competition for FFXV. The vast majority of the people who will care about a big buget open world action RPG aren't exactly fans who are pining for I Am Setsuna. There's overlap, but I think from the posts here most people agree it's not something too detrimental. FFXV has its own issues to worry about and it's not other JRPGs.

 

[Nosgotham]

no. im a huge FF fan, huge JRPG fan and XV looks very meh to me. the combat looks meh, the characters meh. the world, music looks good tho

 

[Wagram]

FFXV screwed FFXV.

 

[Squire]

FF wilalways be a hit with casuals, tons of people don't paly jRPG but play FF.

I don't know that FF still rates with casuals. SE doesn't seem to either. Uncovered - actually, a lot of their marketing - carries this undercurrent of desporation to be accepted by the masses of today the way they were in the 90s. You can feel them trying harder than, say, Ubisoft or EA does and acting with less confidence.

 

[Ray Down]

I do think other JRPGs will harm FFXV, if the competition looks better then a portion of the audience may just avoid XV, I don't think that will be the majority by any means but the my confidence in FFXV comes no where near to my confidence in I am Setsuna

NONE OF the games will affect the mainstream audience decision. Hell the other big ones aren't coming out near XV outside of Persona in Japan...why would they affect it?

 

[Eolz]

But yeah, on topic, FFXV is a game that has been presented poorly in terms of gameplay. It'll definitely sell really well based on brand alone, mainly thanks to the west (there's a good possibility it won't go to FFXIII levels in Japan), but apart from that, hard to know how far it will go...

It's definitely going to depend on the marketing. I guess I shouldn't be so confident in their marketing after E3, but assuming they do a pretty good job getting the word out (particularly getting a trailer around the Internet would be good considering how many people on here have been swayed to checking out the game the first time for those stylish trailers) I don't think it's that ridiculous of a milestone.

But like I said, mark it down if you want. If I'm way off I'll change my avatar to something as is custom lol.

Are you sure you want to do an avatar bet over P5 selling 3M WW? In how much time do you think it'll do that?

The amount of crow and salt that will amass this forum if FFxv is good will be enough to fill the galaxy I swear. What are the right reasons in your eyes.

What if it's remembered as another XIII?
If it's good most people won't care that much anyway. Nothing leading to a lot of salt or anything, it's not another Bayonetta 2 situation for example.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

But yeah, on topic, FFXV is a game that has been presented poorly in terms of gameplay. It'll definitely sell really well based on brand alone, mainly thanks to the west (there's a good possibility it won't go to FFXIII levels in Japan), but apart from that, hard to know how far it will go...



Are you sure you want to do an avatar bet over P5 selling 3M WW? In how much time do you think it'll do that?



What if it's remembered as another XIII?
If it's good most people won't care that much anyway. Nothing leading to a lot of salt or anything, it's not another Bayonetta 2 situation for example.

This forum(a large portion or the same few that enter a thread of a game they don't like whichever it is) has made it clear ffxv won't be good. There certainly will be salt regardless of how it turns out

 

[AnGer]

The rest are so niche, I shouldn't have to explain why they won't affect FFXV.

Dragon Quest XI will most likely outsell Final Fantasy XV in Japan. And unless SE messes it up yet again, the overseas sales will be solid enough to keep them bringing the series back there as well.

On behalf of the topic question though: Generally, no. On a personal level, maybe some people will decide to skip it at launch, but if it fails both commercially and/or critically, it will on its own terms.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

FF has been releasing alongside of a wellspring of other RPGs for quite some time. It's XV is being "harmed" it's probably it's own fault.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

I think the most telling thing is that both Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 are scheduled relatively close to FFXV in Japan, but are early 2017 worldwide. The publishers themselves seem to have a sense of when to pick their battles.

 

[Illucio]

FFXV is only going to do well if it's a actually a good game with good reviews to sway people who aren't into the genre.

 

[Ray Down]

I think the most telling thing is that both Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 are scheduled relatively close to FFXV in Japan, but are early 2017 worldwide. The publishers themselves seem to have a sense of when to pick their battles.

?

Tales comes out on August 18th...that's not close to XV or Persona 5 really.

 

[Mozendo]

None of them are as popular as the FF franchise overseas/globally so no. If someone harmed FF it has to be FF itself.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

I think the most telling thing is that both Tales of Berseria and Persona 5 are scheduled relatively close to FFXV in Japan, but are early 2017 worldwide. The publishers themselves seem to have a sense of when to pick their battles.

I noticed that too like the moment persona got a September date I thought to myself well it's 2017 over here because they know that's suicide

 

[Dysun]

It hasn't demoed well and recent impressions are lukewarm at best. Considering the last decade of Final Fantasy games, they have a steep hill to climb on turning around the current perception of XV

 

[faridmon]

For me, their art style harmed the game ore than anything else. The character design is awful and the environmental design is just too edgy for me. There is no charm to this game whatsoever.

 

[Zhao_Yun]

I do think other JRPGs will harm FFXV, if the competition looks better then a portion of the audience may just avoid XV, I don't think that will be the majority by any means but the my confidence in FFXV comes no where near to my confidence in I am Setsuna

The only other JRPGs which are huge enough to be considered serious competition to FFXV are not even close to releasing anytime soon, so it's hard to agree with you.
The games I mean are:
Kingdom Hearts III: No release date, probably end of 2017 at the earliest.
Dragon Quest XI: Tentative 2017 release, but we haven't seen anything since the reveal so I wouldn't expect it before the end of 2017 in Japan either. In addition, DQ is not known to do high numbers in the West if it even releases here...
Persona 5: Looks really good, but releases half a year later in the US with Europe being a huge question mark.

I think the only potential buyers of FFXV who might be affected now, are those players who play a lot of different JRPGs, even niche ones such as Atelier, Tales or Trails. But the amount of these players out there is not big enough to make a difference imo.
Only anecdotal evidence, but a lot of my acquaintances who are looking forward to FFXV or KH3 didn't even know that Persona was a thing.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

?

Tales comes out on August 18th...that's not close to XV or Persona 5 really.

It's further from either than P5 is to XV, but a month isn't insignificant. It's not "oh god you're squeezing me to death" close, but if people are looking forward to all three, or even just two of them, then it's a bit much.

World of Final Fantasy is barely a month away from FFXV as well and even that feels pretty tight.

 

[Robert at Zeboyd Games]

Honestly, I don't feel like the quantity of JRPGs per year has changed much in the last decade - what's changed is the popularity of different styles & the platforms.

FFXV doesn't really have any direct competition in story, gameplay style, or budget/pedigree, so any lack of hype is its own fault.

 

[ar4757]

I would love to see Persona 5 pull those numbers--I'm assuming it'll probably deserve it--but I just can't see something so un-apologetically Japanese getting big sales numbers. Atlus has fans, and Persona 4 has been garnering a small but loyal fanbase for many years now, but with no aggressive marketing, it's probably destined to be a "cult hit."

Don't get me wrong, Persona 4 is one of my all-time favorite JRPGs, but outside of specialist gaming forums like this one. Very few people know about the series.

It'll probably hit 2 million is my guess.

Something notable I realized when watching the trailers on YouTube every time a new PV came out was that the comments are always only in English, because most Japanese people would just use NicoNico. So the view count on the trailers is probably mostly Western viewers. Just a random thing I always noticed.

As long as it ensures more games in the series come out though that's all that really matters to me sales wise

 

[Squire]

Mafia 3 being out the very next week is a bigger issue for XV than any JRPG.

It's open-world games that average 8m copies sold they should be worried about.

 

[Dangansona]

Are you sure you want to do an avatar bet over P5 selling 3M WW? In how much time do you think it'll do that?

Haha yeah why not? When I first made the post I was just fairly confident and wanted to throw that out there seeing what others thought, never meant to spark such a debate or suggest that I am some video game sales expert.

Ideally I was thinking after a year of release, which complicates things because Europe could be significantly later. So basically 1 year after Europe launch?

 

[orthodoxy1095]

No. Poor stage showing and mediocre demos have harmed Final Fantasy XV the most.

Those other games you listed are pretty much small-time chumps in comparison to the name of Final Fantasy. This should be the triumphant return of a series from a generation of mediocrity. The headlines should write themselves, but they aren't. Instead, Final Fantasy continues to look "meh" and the competition is just stepping up their game.