TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
I would but that doesn't make any sense.
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Overview of Nintendo's FY 2016 Second Quarter Earnings Release/Briefing on Oct. 26/27
Here is what you could call somewhat a bingo card for what I expect Nintendo to present during their financial briefing for the second quarter. (Especially if they had a bad quarter)
This is a repost from 3 months ago that was for the first quarter so I have to revise some things after posting this:
Revision for second quarter financial briefing:
Similar things will be shown for Pokémon Go as mentioned above. It has almost made $500 million in revenue but I don't know if Nintendo will disclose how much revenue they made.
Since Pokémon Go Plus is out, I guess they'll mention how many of those they shipped.
Since Super Mario Run is coming out in December and apparently the Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem mobile games may not come out until next year. They'll focus on Super Mario Run, talking about features but not the pricing.
Since it's near the end of year, they can't delay talking about NX so if they haven't already by the time this meeting rolls out. They'll have to there.
They will remind investors of Pokémon Sun and Moon, NES Mini Classic and now Famicom Mini Classic for their holiday releases. This also includes talking about the Nintendo 2DS in Japan which is targeted towards kids.
There is no revision to the following:
To avoid making their Wii U and 3DS shipments looking bad. They will put Worldwide total shipment numbers over time in a bar graph with a Cumulative distribution. So that everything over time looks like it is increasing to please investors. Repeat this for any software sales and amiibo and digital sales. Again pointing out that sales will always be in a cumulative distribution so you can't "see" down periods.
During Q & A, an investor that enjoyed the sudden growth in stock price asks "when is there going to be a sequel for Pokémon Go?".
Another investor will ask and request for Gacha (gambling) mechanics to be put into Pokémon Go for it to make more money.
Expect investors to ask questions where they ramble about something and then throw in 2 or 3 questions in one sentence to bewilder Kimishima.
Of course, depending on the outcome. As in, not expecting any major announcements like NX reveal date. Expect the stock price to fall.
I have to add some new questions for this Q&A.
An investor will ask if there'll be any microtransactions in Super Mario Run. Such as collecting cards, unlocking characters or unlocking new stages.
Another investor will ask why there is now only 4 mobile games being released into this fiscal year and why the Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem mobile games were delayed.
Assuming the NX has been revealed, investors will ask about pricing or release date. Also they will question how Nintendo will handle this next platform in the long term with regards to multiple form factors.
That's all I can think of at the moment.
This is a repost from 3 months ago that was for the first quarter so I have to revise some things after posting this:
ggx2ac said:
Revision for second quarter financial briefing:
Similar things will be shown for Pokémon Go as mentioned above. It has almost made $500 million in revenue but I don't know if Nintendo will disclose how much revenue they made.
Since Pokémon Go Plus is out, I guess they'll mention how many of those they shipped.
Since Super Mario Run is coming out in December and apparently the Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem mobile games may not come out until next year. They'll focus on Super Mario Run, talking about features but not the pricing.
Since it's near the end of year, they can't delay talking about NX so if they haven't already by the time this meeting rolls out. They'll have to there.
They will remind investors of Pokémon Sun and Moon, NES Mini Classic and now Famicom Mini Classic for their holiday releases. This also includes talking about the Nintendo 2DS in Japan which is targeted towards kids.
There is no revision to the following:
To avoid making their Wii U and 3DS shipments looking bad. They will put Worldwide total shipment numbers over time in a bar graph with a Cumulative distribution. So that everything over time looks like it is increasing to please investors. Repeat this for any software sales and amiibo and digital sales. Again pointing out that sales will always be in a cumulative distribution so you can't "see" down periods.
During Q & A, an investor that enjoyed the sudden growth in stock price asks "when is there going to be a sequel for Pokémon Go?".
Another investor will ask and request for Gacha (gambling) mechanics to be put into Pokémon Go for it to make more money.
Expect investors to ask questions where they ramble about something and then throw in 2 or 3 questions in one sentence to bewilder Kimishima.
Of course, depending on the outcome. As in, not expecting any major announcements like NX reveal date. Expect the stock price to fall.
I have to add some new questions for this Q&A.
An investor will ask if there'll be any microtransactions in Super Mario Run. Such as collecting cards, unlocking characters or unlocking new stages.
Another investor will ask why there is now only 4 mobile games being released into this fiscal year and why the Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem mobile games were delayed.
Assuming the NX has been revealed, investors will ask about pricing or release date. Also they will question how Nintendo will handle this next platform in the long term with regards to multiple form factors.
That's all I can think of at the moment.
Grahamsprodigy
Neo Member
I did this very thorough financial analysis of what to expect from the 2016 fiscal year, and it ended up being a very long, very boring breakdown. It's sitting in my "drafts" box at Seeking Alpha because I am having a hard time trying to think about what I might add to make it interesting to read.
The things that we think the NX are have been pretty much covered to death. What we haven't seen speculated on very much is the relationship they might have with mobile producers after the hardware comes out. I'm starting to sort of see a potential for cross-selling Apple and/or Android games on NX. So it may be that all this delaying is for Apple's sake and not Nintendo's.
Only thing I really can tell you right now is that the company is sitting on a ludicrous amount of bread, and it is really hard to work on spreadsheets with 15-digit numbers for money.
The things that we think the NX are have been pretty much covered to death. What we haven't seen speculated on very much is the relationship they might have with mobile producers after the hardware comes out. I'm starting to sort of see a potential for cross-selling Apple and/or Android games on NX. So it may be that all this delaying is for Apple's sake and not Nintendo's.
Only thing I really can tell you right now is that the company is sitting on a ludicrous amount of bread, and it is really hard to work on spreadsheets with 15-digit numbers for money.
I'm definitely still expecting Pikmin 4 NX. Miyamoto didn't just say "a Pikmin game" he said Pikmin 4. The 3DS game isn't even the same genre as the rest of the series and it isn't called Pikmin 4. I could see it being a complementary game if anything, just to keep Pikmin on people's minds. It's not strange for Nintendo to release multiple entries of a franchise on different platforms within a short time span, like Yoshi's New Island followed by Yoshi's Woolly World, or NSMB 2 and NSMB U. I could be wrong sure, but that's how I read into it. Someone will eventually ask them directly if another Pikmin game is in development and we'll get our answer.
If it is the case that the 3DS game is what he was referring to, then that's just a strange sequence of events lol. It'd be like Microsoft saying they're gonna reveal Halo 6 soon, and it turns out to be a Metal Slug style 2d shooter. Though in that scenario there'd be a lot more people freaking out.
Yeah but Pikmin 4 was namedropped and said to be "near completion", months ago. Pikmin 3DS doesn't even have a final name, so I highly doubt Nintendo made "Pikmin 4" for the "3DS", said it was already close to completion(MONTHS AGO), and still wouldn't have a name for it. That's not how they roll
GhostTrick
Banned
If NX isn't revealed before that, it's either that it's delayed or that this product is an afterthought
Yeah honestly I think it'll look bad on them if they announce a delay AT the meeting. I feel like were going to get SOMETHING before then.
GhostTrick
Banned
Whatever they're doing, they sure take a sweet time. If they announced the announcement date tmr, it'd be for maybe 3 weeks later if they plan for an event. So less than 5 months before release. After being so silent and playing their cards so close to their chest, they better have the most epic game line up and reveal or they can go home, because Wii U level of library wont cut it after all this mystery.
NinjaCoachZ
Member
With regards to Pikmin - did Miyamoto actually call it "Pikmin 4" or did he just say "a new Pikmin"?
I'm pretty sure what we saw is what he was talking about, unless Nintendo are planning to launch a Pikmin game for the 3DS and a Pikmin game for the NX around the same time.
In the hypothetical case where NX did get delayed, I don't see why they wouldn't hold that until the meeting. Even if they reveal it beforehand, investors are likely to grill them on it either way.
It makes more sense to just do things at once rather than have the timeframe of "announce NX delay --> announce expected NX shipments and when they plan to reveal it at the meeting --> actually reveal it".
I'm pretty sure what we saw is what he was talking about, unless Nintendo are planning to launch a Pikmin game for the 3DS and a Pikmin game for the NX around the same time.
In the hypothetical case where NX did get delayed, I don't see why they wouldn't hold that until the meeting. Even if they reveal it beforehand, investors are likely to grill them on it either way.
It makes more sense to just do things at once rather than have the timeframe of "announce NX delay --> announce expected NX shipments and when they plan to reveal it at the meeting --> actually reveal it".
Vital Tundra
Member
I really hope they don't wait till this meeting to give NX news. They really need the public to see this console.
Investors need time to calm down. Having a knee-jerk reactions at the meeting doesn't sound too good, if it's going to be delayed we'll hear about it before the meeting.
Sadly I think we won't hear anything until the meeting, and even more sad, I think they'll give the name and the concept and announce the reveal for January and show us zip.
My optimism has soured to pessimism and I'm trying to cope.
This is true. I remember Nintendo revised their forecast before one of their financial briefings in the past fiscal years.
NinjaCoachZ
Member
They announced Miitomo's delay at an investor's meeting last year, along with the explanation of why and what effect it would've had on earnings.
Granted an NX delay would be a bigger deal than that, especially if it misses the FY entirely, but I don't think it's unthinkable for it to happen then, really. If I had to guess, I wouldn't 100% rule it out, but then again I'm not an expert so what do I know.
If Nintendo does need to delay it and they reveal the system beforehand, my guess is that they'll do it at the same time as the reveal because then the new games, excitement for the system etc. would distract from its pushback.
EDIT: The more I think about it, if delaying the system would require them to change their forecasts for the FY, that'd probably require them to say something beforehand.
Again, all of this is assuming a delay would happen, which I'm not sure of.
Yeah I see what you're trying to say, but imo, a delay isn't likely once you look into it. If you believe a delay is likely, please tell me as to why you believe this to be the case with something other than
"They haven't talked about it", "they've delayed botw before" and "idk pessimism lol"
Sammy Samusu
Member
The holiday season is too important for Nintendo, they won't announce NX this year, it'd kill 3DS and Wii U sales. (but apparently Kimishima promised a reveal in 2016?)
I'm sticking to January reveal and March launch.
I'm sticking to January reveal and March launch.
NinjaCoachZ
Member
The only reason I think it's worth entertaining is because 4-5 months is pretty tight when you're talking about marketing brand new hardware and their bigtime comeback gambit, but I don't personally believe it'll be pushed back. DEFINITELY not to the holiday.
I'm hoping they can get a Superbowl commercial and some demo units in retailers for Q1. That would really go a long way, and be just far away to build up excitement while being just quick enough to be striking the iron while it's hot (versus the NES Classic Mini, where I feel that not allowing preorders at the moment of announcement was a biiiiiig mistake for getting some impulse buys in - but marketing might ramp up in the next month and WOM may spread when it's on shelves).
I don't think the NX not being revealed yet is what will make or break Wii U sales.
What Wii U sales???
Yes it was promised that we'd get info this year. What 3DS/Wii U sales? Seriously the Wii U only has Color Splash and BoTW left, that's it. Color Splash, even though I like what i've played, isn't a console seller. BoTW is on the NX, and any smart person is going to get it on the NX provided that they don't own a Wii U(which is a lot of people)
3DS has a couple of games but I believe only 2/3 are even releasing this year. One of the major hitters is Pokemon and Pokemon is going to sell no matter what, I mean, seriously, each game sells over 10 million copies, the NX can't stop that. Also stick to the facts, January is not happening, it's confirmed for this year.
Regardless, Wii U is dead and the 3DS is just well it's on it's last legs
GhostTrick
Banned
Better kill NX because it may kill Wii U and 3DS sales :")
New consoles happens all the time. If they want to maintain sales while announcing a new hardware, they better drop the prices or bring some bundles. That's how people usually do when they announce a new platform.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Revealing the NX in January is not the end of the world. It would be a plus for Nintendo, actually. They'd have the hype, price, release date, games, services etc all pretty much set in stone. It's better to do an impactful reveal than a shitty one.
I'm very well aware that there's a chance for a 2016 reveal even if it hurts their sales. It wouldn't be first, like you said.
And to everyone saying WHAT SALES, well, 10 units sold is still more than 1.
Yeah guys he's right, fuck that new console, we gotta ship 10 Wii Us bruh.
Just stop, Nintendo is already pushing the limit for how long they have to market it, Nintendo is not Apple, Nintendo can't do the whole "YEP IT'S COMING GUYS". Apple has over 900 MILLION idevices on the market, and everyone's got a raging hardon for apple, so they can really do whatever and people will still buy it.
If it hurts sales, that's fine, the gain will justify it.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
"Wii U Sales"
Lmao
Lmao
Father_Brain
Banned
Could they really prevent leaks over several months of mass production? I doubt it.
Cert.in.Death
Member
No proof, just speculation. The NX was announced for 2017 during an investor call discussing the coming fiscal year, which ends in March Q1, strategically placed so that its success/failure wouldn't show up on the books for that year and instead allow Kimishima time to divert blame for any purported struggles.
Beyond that, the timing just feels off. It's a super short turnaround for a device that nobody knows anything about, plus it feels strange to announce a device during the holiday season that won't be out until Spring. Plus, based entirely off rumors, Nintendo is committing everything they have to this device from their first party development and they're going to be stuck with inferior versions of third-party games, if any at all. Keeping a steady stream of content is going to be vital and allowing more time to ensure content is routinely delivered is a necessary move.
The more time that goes by without official word from Nintendo, the more convinced I become that they know they're not ready and will quietly but swiftly delay the system out of Q1 2017.
One day of the NX reveal, if it happened before the investors meeting so they can reveal forecasts isn't going to hurt sales of Pokémon especially when:
- Pokémon Sun and Moon is their biggest title for the holidays
- Popularity of Pokémon for the current year is at an all time high thanks to Pokémon Go.
- The advertising spent on Pokémon Sun & Moon will most likely be big seeing as there isn't just the software but also Pokémon themed 3DS and 2DS hardware to sell.
- They are not going to reveal a Pokémon title for NX this year as it is the only thing that could hurt Sun & Moon sales.
- Pokémon Sun and Moon is their biggest title for the holidays
- Popularity of Pokémon for the current year is at an all time high thanks to Pokémon Go.
- The advertising spent on Pokémon Sun & Moon will most likely be big seeing as there isn't just the software but also Pokémon themed 3DS and 2DS hardware to sell.
- They are not going to reveal a Pokémon title for NX this year as it is the only thing that could hurt Sun & Moon sales.
Well here's the original article. Miyamoto himself called it the "next one" but Nintendo confirmed it as Pikmin 4 specifically.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-07-20-pikmin-4-in-development-and-very-close-to-completion
It certainly wouldn't surprise me for them to make one for 3DS and one for NX considering they sort of have a history of doing stuff like that.
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I'm preparing for an announcement of a delay if nothing comes before the investor meeting. That's just my pessimism after how Zelda was delayed in one and the NX was initially announced for 2017 in that same one.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
Who isn't given Miyamoto said Pikmin 4 was nearly done and we haven't seen a peep of it?
Personally, I don't give a shit as I don't like the series much anyway, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't a launch/launch window NX title with that 3DS 2D game being a hold over to generate some renewed interest in the franchise before then.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I look forward to our first major NX info on October 26th.
Replace "this year" with "January".
Replace "this year" with "January".
We don't know if it wasn't just the 3DS game.
Davey Cakes
Member
If they delay talking about NX then it'll be until at least January.
3 weeks to go.
At least during the last week we'll get a WSJ article thread or equivalent when analysts predict things or have sources from there confirming things about NX.
It wouldn't be hard for me to believe if I had any faith in Nintendo's communication, but I don't so it's a 50/50 shot in my mind lol.
The quote from Nintendo in the Eurogamer article doesn't seem to be translated as far as I know.
I understand the point you're trying to make but I wanna have some shred of faith that they wouldn't actually refer to that game as Pikmin 4 in any capacity. I said earlier I don't, but I want to.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
Everyone has wild theories about it though. Extrapolating translated Miyamoto quotes as corroboration that he was never referring to Pikmin for 3DS, you know the one that actually was announced and has been in development, but rather another Pikmin being developed for NX.
NinjaCoachZ
Member
Ah, right.
I found another article where Miyamoto mentions the reason we haven't seen it "sooner" is due to "prioritization".
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/pikmin-4-still-happening-miyamoto-assures/1100-6441577/
Given that this is one of the only first-party 3DS games for 2017, I have a feeling the game was supposed to come out this year but in the absence of anything else + NX being released in March, they moved it to 2017 to spread out the 3DS's release schedule.
Honestly for me I'm just applying Occam's razor here. Miyamoto says there's a Pikmin game that's almost done and there's a Pikmin for the 3DS that looks to be almost done. I think there probably is an inevitable Pikmin game for the NX, but it's probably not the game Miyamoto was describing.
Possibly. I can definitely see that.
But I also wanna apply Occam's razor and think that Pikmin 4 means Pikmin 4 the way that everyone and their mom would assume when they hear it, and Nintendo aren't being dunderheads about this. Also why would they be coy about the platform if it's just 3DS.
I have complete confidence in Nintendo to do things that makes sense once in a blue moon and I hope that this is one of those times
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
We are having a countdown for a financial meetings now?
OrbitalBeard
Member
What do you mean by now, 'cause this sure isn't new when it comes to NintendoGAF.
It's Nintendo. Why did they only announce Picross 3D a few weeks ago when it was localised last year already? Why did they announce Twilight Princess HD and Majora's Mask only about year after they were finished? Why did they wait half a year to release Metroid Prime 3DS?
With nothing else on the horizon, they want to spread out their releases and not take away attention from the games that release first.
https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoNX/comments/55xu1l/did_boogie2988_just_drop_a_huge_nx_bomb/
what do you guys make of this?
what do you guys make of this?
Dark Cloud
Member
Who's that and what's the news he drops?
It sounds like he's saying there's two separate versions of the games depending on if it's plugged in or not...? "Take a form of the game with you as you go." "Assassin's creed mobile version"
Ehhh I'm not gonna read into that too much.
Wait what
So you have the mobile form of the game when it's handheld mode but are able to play the full actually game when plugged into "console". Wat
OrbitalBeard
Member
Why?
It's the exact same info/rumors/speculation we've been hearing about for a year now.
Wandering Robot
Member
Looks like delay paranoia is at an all-time high!
If not the NX, the investors' meeting will provide entertainment in the form of GAF reactions. I figure at least someone will be asking about forecasts for the next fiscal year (or quarter, what have you), so we could or couldn't end up with nothing.
Either way, this isn't for three weeks. We'll see what happens until then.
If not the NX, the investors' meeting will provide entertainment in the form of GAF reactions. I figure at least someone will be asking about forecasts for the next fiscal year (or quarter, what have you), so we could or couldn't end up with nothing.
Either way, this isn't for three weeks. We'll see what happens until then.