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RoadtoVR: John Carmack Has Doubts About PSVR 2’s Chance for Success

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I'm always confused by people that say things like this. What does mainstream gaming even mean in this context? If people can play GT7 in VR online against people that are playing it on a normal TV, why does it matter if it's niche or "mainstream"?

People need to start defining what "mainstream" VR means and what defines success for VR.
I think what people are getting at is mainstream in terms of hardware sales, and types of games.

A traditional PS console sells 100M or more units. PSVR1 sold 5M across 120M PS4s.

Most VR games are nothing like a standard $70 game. As for GT7 VR, is it accessible throughout the entire game and modes? Or only VR mode with limited content?
 
I think what people are getting at is mainstream in terms of hardware sales, and types of games.

A traditional PS console sells 100M or more units. PSVR1 sold 5M across 120M PS4s.

Most VR games are nothing like a standard $70 game. As for GT7 VR, is it accessible throughout the entire game and modes? Or only VR mode with limited content?
It’s the whole game. Everything except split screen (obviously)
 

ToTTenTranz

Banned
He does not understand how to sell VR and I see the same failure for his AR headset.
That's why I say Meta needs a new marketing team.

Mark isn't a very likeable person to most of Meta's audience, he always comes off as too cold and unauthentic.
They should hire actors to show off their technology and they must definitely get rid of the miiverse avatars.

However, that's not to say those ~$15B/year aren't going to amount to nothing. Those miiverse ads are simply what they can do with the limited hardware of Meta Quest 1 and 2, but that's definitely not their end game. They're not spending $15B on that.
Meta is trying to position themselves to become a contestant to apple and google in personal devices and that was always going to cost an arm and a leg. Especially if they aim to own the whole thing (hardware devices, software platform and app store).
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I think what people are getting at is mainstream in terms of hardware sales, and types of games.

A traditional PS console sells 100M or more units. PSVR1 sold 5M across 120M PS4s.

Most VR games are nothing like a standard $70 game. As for GT7 VR, is it accessible throughout the entire game and modes? Or only VR mode with limited content?

But see the 100 million unit number isn't fair to set "mainstream" at, since Microsoft has never created a console to hit 100m units. Yet we all know they are mainstream. Nowadays I think it's fair to say that the "mainstream" number should be set at or around 30 million units worldwide.

And GT7 VR is for the full game. Including online. The only thing it can't do is 2-player local split-screen for obvious reasons.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
That's why I say Meta needs a new marketing team.

Mark isn't a very likeable person to most of Meta's audience, he always comes off as too cold and unauthentic.
They should hire actors to show off their technology and they must definitely get rid of the miiverse avatars.

However, that's not to say those ~$15B/year aren't going to amount to nothing. Those miiverse ads are simply what they can do with the limited hardware of Meta Quest 1 and 2, but that's definitely not their end game. They're not spending $15B on that.
Meta is trying to position themselves to become a contestant to apple and google in personal devices and that was always going to cost an arm and a leg. Especially if they aim to own the whole thing (hardware devices, software platform and app store).

It's still mindblowing to me that Facebook is losing $15 billion a year on their VR\AR division. INSANE!!! I know Zuck is all in and that's great. But how long will shareholders allow this cash burn to happen? At that rate, the Quest 2 needs to sell over 50 million units for any of that to make sense.

Does anybody here think the Quest 2 will get to 50 million unit sells?
 

Danknugz

Member
I think this whole VR thing is an exercise in delusion and contradiction.

VR gaming needs games. Standalone VR headsets are shit for games, and if you want a proper AAA game experience with them, you have to hook them up to a PC anyways. And guess what, said PC is gonna cost you over $500.

No matter how anyone spins it, VR gaming is always going to be expensive. Just no way around it.

What sony needs to do, is make the PSVR2 headset compatible with PC/Mac and Linux. The VR market is just too niche for anyone to be building walled gardens.
exactly, it's a shame because Sony would clearly sell more headsets if they allowed it, but as I said before it seems they're more focused on compelling people to buy a ps5 instead of doing anything for VR as a whole (mass adoption) which is the space Carmack usually talks from and has basically been oculus' mission since they were bought by facebook.

a PC / 4090 could really make more of an experience with the psvr2 than a ps5, but maybe they have custom elements in the psvr2 which are specific to assumptions about the ps5 hardware (such as never needing less than 16ms frame time because the 120 fps will always be just reprojection and not native)
 

Ansphn

Member
That's why I say Meta needs a new marketing team.

Mark isn't a very likeable person to most of Meta's audience, he always comes off as too cold and unauthentic.
They should hire actors to show off their technology and they must definitely get rid of the miiverse avatars.

However, that's not to say those ~$15B/year aren't going to amount to nothing. Those miiverse ads are simply what they can do with the limited hardware of Meta Quest 1 and 2, but that's definitely not their end game. They're not spending $15B on that.
Meta is trying to position themselves to become a contestant to apple and google in personal devices and that was always going to cost an arm and a leg. Especially if they aim to own the whole thing (hardware devices, software platform and app store).
I agree Zuckerberg needs to sit in the shadows instead of trying to be front and center but it seems he loves the attention and has a huge ego. Maybe he will eventually let someone else be the face of VR/AR with zero involvement from him but I won't believe it until I see it.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I agree Zuckerberg needs to sit in the shadows instead of trying to be front and center but it seems he loves the attention and has a huge ego. Maybe he will eventually let someone else be the face of VR/AR with zero involvement from him but I won't believe it until I see it.
Tech companies are like that though.

It seems a lot of tech companies prefer having one of their execs (or the CEO himself) being the posterboy for marketing. Steve Jobs, Musk, Phil Spencer, the leather jacket Nvidia guy, Zuck, back in the 2000s when Oracle was one of the tech darlings Larry Ellison was everywhere, etc....
 

Ansphn

Member
Tech companies are like that though.

It seems a lot of tech companies prefer having one of their execs (or the CEO himself) being the posterboy for marketing. Steve Jobs, Musk, Phil Spencer, the leather jacket Nvidia guy, Zuck, back in the 2000s when Oracle was one of the tech darlings Larry Ellison was everywhere, etc....
I agree. I was replying to that person who think Zuck should go hide himself and let the media team sell the product. I dont think hes going to do it either.
 
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Gans

Neo Member
Correct. In fact, you can buy the PS4 version if it’s cheaper, upgrade that to PS5 for free and then get the free VR update.
Awesome, thanks, that's the main reason together with Horizon on why I'm dropping the £550 for this, while I never even eyed Oculus quest or anything on those lines. I don't believe I'm alone in this.

Had PSVR1 collecting dust but main reason why is because it was cumbersome as hell to plug the whole thing every time (I never left the actual processing box or whatever that was called plugged in) as well as the camera. While I'd prefer a wireless experience I believe there's a massive difference from that to just a Usb-c plug and play.
 

Flutta

Banned
I mean sure. The PS5 userbase ain’t that big yet. Not sure if this was the best time to release it.

Also the only one responsible for it to be successful is Sony. Not sure what their plan is with VR. Do they really want it to become mainstream or are they happy with it if it gains some success in the niche market.
 

reinking

Gold Member
I am going to ask again. What will Sony consider success? While I am sure they would love to hit Quest 2 numbers I do not think that is their target. They have proven time-and-time again that they are not dumb and they have PSVR 1 numbers to analyze.

Just some quick and simple napkin math.

Current PS5

32 million x (let's guess 5%) PSVR2 attach rate. That gets them to what? 800 million dollars in sales just for current PS5 inventory. Let's say I was generous with 5%. This is without adding the 19 million projected PS5 sales for 2023. So, they will most likely reach well over 1 billion dollars in sales in the first year. Again, I don't know what they will consider a success but I have to think PSVR2 is going to be okay.
 
VR faces the same dillema as 3D, the best stuff costs too much, and the low price stuff after one fad will now no longer have the consumer impressed by novelty.

Because of this, Quest 2 is a one time thing, and any companies who make headsets close to it's price don't have the novelty factor, so will compromise on experiences needed to retain consumers for years.

The high end stuff that has mainstream potential is too out of range for people's wallets, and you can't wait 2-3 years for the prices to drop or go on clearance because there will be newer tech that will already replace them 2-3x over.

So you only have a niche audience who will take the accessible, but lowest experience, and a niche who will go out their way for the best experience.

Anything in the middle will repel people who want either or, so will be even more niche. Especially since the middle is leaning toward high-end pricing.

Most likely, Apple will be the headset to sell Quest 2 numbers again or beat it **ONLY** because it's going to reintroduce the novelty factor again to their large fandoctrinated base.

Outside of that, VR is going to be a dead media like 3D, selling a few million pieces of tech a year.

PSVR 2 has no appeal to those wanting an accessible price, especially if they don't have a PS5 already, then it's no different than the price of the upper end experience.

It also has too many flaws for the small group that wants a headset close to the top minimum. It's got several flaws, doesn't carryover library, has a wire, and will fall short of competitors that are coming out soon. It's not a device that can pick up 8 million users in 5 years, the tech is replaced way too fast for its midprice specs to remain appealing.

There's absolutely no place for it outside a niche collective, which would include fans of the brand.

It's also clear based on other reports that HTC has been out of the game for a long time. It only appears like they're still competing because new releases into the market have been slow, but that's changing in short time, so I expect them to release their upcoming headset and then once that fails, the announcement of their withdrawal at the end of the year.

3D TV and media players were on the same exact path to ruin as VR is right now. Including new players announcing tech but none of them bringing in new content. No one wants to put out a full product either, theres always something missing.

VR is just screwed for now. But maybe in 2030 when the next generation of VR comes after 3 more generations of chip shrinks, it may have a chance.
 

yurinka

Member
I am going to ask again. What will Sony consider success?
Sony considered PSVR1 a success having sold "more than 5M copies". It was the first iteration of a new and experimental tech targeted to techie early adopters, not meant to be something mainstream.

With PSVR2 they solve many PSVR1 issues in their second iteration, plus will more than double the amount of games -specially from AAA ones- released for it plus it gets released for a cheaper price and with way better specs.

So I assume Sony will expect slightly higher numbers than the ones PSVR1 had, but they don't seem to expect it to go mainstream.

While I am sure they would love to hit Quest 2 numbers I do not think that is their target.
Nah, for sure they don't expect to get Quest 2 numbers: PSVR2 is not a low end cheap mobile phone tech VR for mostly 360 videos or 'metaverse' and other similar crap. It's a games focused high end VR accesory for a console.

Sony aims to a different, way smaller market. Pretty likely expects PS5 to outsell PS4 and to have a slightly higher PSVR2 attach rate than the PSVR1 had. So maybe they aim to sell 7-8M PSVR2, maybe up to 10M if lucky.
 

Baki

Member
GT7 is a year old and it’s not like everyone suddenly think the racing genre is the best genre. It’s not even enough for launch.
And the ”dabble more” is the whole problem. VR don’t need more B-teams doing experimental AA or indie titles, sometimes the only thing that is actually needed to break through the bubble is new big budget exclusive AAA games in the main game series people love or new IPs you just can’t get anywhere else. It’s essentially the AA Gamepass titles versus AAA Sony exclusives scenario. Sony need to treat PSVR2 as well as they treat PS5.
A wired expensive VR headset has limited appeal and there’s an uphill battle to convince devs to develop on this niche VR headset rather than the Quest 2 which is at 20m units (same install base as Xbox). Sony knows this. So it makes no sense for Sony to devote meaningful resources, especially when they have a tough fight on their hands in their core market with MS buying the #1 third party publisher in the world.
 

Baki

Member
It's still mindblowing to me that Facebook is losing $15 billion a year on their VR\AR division. INSANE!!! I know Zuck is all in and that's great. But how long will shareholders allow this cash burn to happen? At that rate, the Quest 2 needs to sell over 50 million units for any of that to make sense.

Does anybody here think the Quest 2 will get to 50 million unit sells?
Most of that money is in R&D. They pay a lot for their engineers. Zuck can get away with this because he has controlling shares and can’t be fired. He’s using the Facebook cash cow to secure the future of the company, which he believes is the metaverse. He thinks AR/VR is the next smartphone. Apparently Apple does as well.
 
A wired expensive VR headset has limited appeal and there’s an uphill battle to convince devs to develop on this niche VR headset rather than the Quest 2 which is at 20m units (same install base as Xbox). Sony knows this. So it makes no sense for Sony to devote meaningful resources, especially when they have a tough fight on their hands in their core market with MS buying the #1 third party publisher in the world.

Developers on quest will develop on psvr2
 

Baki

Member
Developers on quest will develop on psvr2
You’ll see a PS2, GameCube situation develop when it becomes clear that porting to PSVR2 is not worth the effort because the difference in install base is too large. I think that will take a 1.5 years for that to happen.
 
You’ll see a PS2, GameCube situation develop when it becomes clear that porting to PSVR2 is not worth the effort because the difference in install base is too large. I think that will take a 1.5 years for that to happen.

Complete nonsense

Every VR dev knows they have to support all the platforms to be viable

I bet S&S2 on PSVR2 outsells the Quest 2 version despite a much smaller user base
 

OuterLimits

Member
Seems bizarre to me that they aren't allowing it to be compatible on PC. They recently decided putting some of their first party software on PC to wisely increase profit, but decided to keep this within their walled garden, which limits the sales potential.
 

Baki

Member
Not if you’re an indie dev

90% of userbase does not translate into 90% of game sales

Quest 2 has an inactive userbase, they’re mostly collecting dust
Based on what data? Last Sw numbers we got for Quest was that it did $1.5B in software sales. Not to mention we just saw Among Us VR very quickly reach 1M sold.
 

R6Rider

Gold Member
I bet S&S2 on PSVR2 outsells the Quest 2 version despite a much smaller user base
This is what people don't seem to get. Sure the Quest 2 has sold a lot, but how many people still buy games for it regularly. I'd bet not very many.

Releasing games on PSVR2 will easily get more sales for the majority of titles.


*Yes these numbers are speculative, but it gives the general idea.

And that's with PSVR having a much smaller user base and all of its drawbacks.
 
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Based on what data? Last Sw numbers we got for Quest was that it did $1.5B in software sales. Not to mention we just saw Among Us VR very quickly reach 1M sold.

Saints and Sinners 1 did only 50% of revenue on Quest during peak Quest 2 popularity, so no, devs aren’t going to ignore every VR platform but Quest


Of course, Meta also wanted to emphasize that their titles have staying power. Since it’s October 2020 release, The Walking Dead: Saints & Sinners has brought in over $50 million in revenue. The Meta Quest store accounted for nearly half of the game’s lifetime revenue, showing the value the marketplace can deliver for VR publishers.
 
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Baki

Member
This is what people don't seem to get. Sure the Quest 2 has sold a lot, but how many people still buy games for it regularly. I'd bet not very many.

Releasing games on PSVR2 will easily get more sales for the majority of titles.


*Yes these numbers are speculative, but it gives the general idea.

And that's with PSVR having a much smaller user base and all of its drawbacks.

Some real numbers. It’s clear there’s only places to make money on VR.
 

R6Rider

Gold Member

Some real numbers. It’s clear there’s only places to make money on VR.
And how many games sold is that? maybe 100,000? Those numbers are terrible for the instal base. And 67% of games don't even hit that.

-
Meta takes 30% each sale. So a game selling for $20 is making $14.
That's only 72k copies sold. Meaning less than 1% of Quest owners bought the game at launch.

That's bad for a user base of over 20 million.

EDIT: Corrected %. It's MUCH worse than I initially thought.
 
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Baki

Member

Baki

Member
Wrong. Check my link, read the quote.

“The Meta Quest store accounted for nearly half of the game’s lifetime revenue,”
Venturebeat reported wrong. Here's a screencap from the Meta Quest conference.
resize
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I am going to ask again. What will Sony consider success? While I am sure they would love to hit Quest 2 numbers I do not think that is their target. They have proven time-and-time again that they are not dumb and they have PSVR 1 numbers to analyze.

Just some quick and simple napkin math.

Current PS5

32 million x (let's guess 5%) PSVR2 attach rate. That gets them to what? 800 million dollars in sales just for current PS5 inventory. Let's say I was generous with 5%. This is without adding the 19 million projected PS5 sales for 2023. So, they will most likely reach well over 1 billion dollars in sales in the first year. Again, I don't know what they will consider a success but I have to think PSVR2 is going to be okay.

I think Sony will like to sell double what the PSVR did. Meaning at least 10 million lifetime at a minimum! PSVR did 2 million in about 14 months. So that's about 150,000 units a month on average. I'd think Sony would like to sell at the bare minimum 3 million PSVR2 units by March 31st of 2024. That'll be 230,000 a month. But to be a success, they'd want to sell close to 3.6 million during that sale time (meaning about 300,000 PSVR2s a month for 13 months).

To me that's a clear success. Anything less than 3 million units by 2024 would be a disappointment. And less than 2 million by then would be bad! And if they only do 1 million by March 2024, that'll be a pure FLOP!
 

midnightAI

Member
VR faces the same dillema as 3D, the best stuff costs too much, and the low price stuff after one fad will now no longer have the consumer impressed by novelty.

Because of this, Quest 2 is a one time thing, and any companies who make headsets close to it's price don't have the novelty factor, so will compromise on experiences needed to retain consumers for years.

The high end stuff that has mainstream potential is too out of range for people's wallets, and you can't wait 2-3 years for the prices to drop or go on clearance because there will be newer tech that will already replace them 2-3x over.

So you only have a niche audience who will take the accessible, but lowest experience, and a niche who will go out their way for the best experience.

Anything in the middle will repel people who want either or, so will be even more niche. Especially since the middle is leaning toward high-end pricing.

Most likely, Apple will be the headset to sell Quest 2 numbers again or beat it **ONLY** because it's going to reintroduce the novelty factor again to their large fandoctrinated base.

Outside of that, VR is going to be a dead media like 3D, selling a few million pieces of tech a year.

PSVR 2 has no appeal to those wanting an accessible price, especially if they don't have a PS5 already, then it's no different than the price of the upper end experience.

It also has too many flaws for the small group that wants a headset close to the top minimum. It's got several flaws, doesn't carryover library, has a wire, and will fall short of competitors that are coming out soon. It's not a device that can pick up 8 million users in 5 years, the tech is replaced way too fast for its midprice specs to remain appealing.

There's absolutely no place for it outside a niche collective, which would include fans of the brand.

It's also clear based on other reports that HTC has been out of the game for a long time. It only appears like they're still competing because new releases into the market have been slow, but that's changing in short time, so I expect them to release their upcoming headset and then once that fails, the announcement of their withdrawal at the end of the year.

3D TV and media players were on the same exact path to ruin as VR is right now. Including new players announcing tech but none of them bringing in new content. No one wants to put out a full product either, theres always something missing.

VR is just screwed for now. But maybe in 2030 when the next generation of VR comes after 3 more generations of chip shrinks, it may have a chance.
Don't Panic Henry, Don't Panic

Text Street GIF
 

DaGwaphics

Member
Perhaps, but then people should do something else with their money or play other stuff.

It's like with these expensive GPUs. They're priced the way they are. Doesn't mean any of us have to get it lol.

Maybe People need to wait to see it's true performance/potential. Nothing wrong with waiting either.

You are basically in agreement with the article with the bolded. That's exactly what the majority will do because of the cost, which is what Carmack is eluding to.

The status quo exists as it is and pricing can certainly stay in that range, the only issue is that VR will never move out of the periphery without a lower more mainstream cost. Maybe the console and a $200 headset or a better specked All-in-one at $400 or $500 with good games. As long as you need to spend $1k plus to get started it will remain a very small niche in gaming.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
You are basically in agreement with the article with the bolded. That's exactly what the majority will do because of the cost, which is what Carmack is eluding to.

The status quo exists as it is and pricing can certainly stay in that range, the only issue is that VR will never move out of the periphery without a lower more mainstream cost. Maybe the console and a $200 headset or a better specked All-in-one at $400 or $500 with good games. As long as you need to spend $1k plus to get started it will remain a very small niche in gaming.

What's your definition of "very small niche" in gaming sells number wise?
 

DaGwaphics

Member
What's your definition of "very small niche" in gaming sells number wise?

I wouldn't put a specific number on it, I'd look at VR gaming as a whole and judge based on the VR industry's ability to sustain AAA development in a profitable way. Once it's possible to put enough financial backing into the software to create top-tier content and do that reliably at profit, I'd say it might be on its way (the whole VR segment seems to be a huge money sink at the moment though).
 
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Index and PSVR both outsold Quest 1 based on available metrics

Irrelevant.

Quest one got peoples attention and was the fastest selling headset at the time, which was made to test the waters, they had to release Quest 2 sooner than expected to take advantage of what they had, and they did, and the Quest 2 became the fastest and best selling headset, and they cut stock of the former down so they could have production focused primarily on the Quest 2 to meet demand. Everyone knew it was a big deal.

Gear VR was just a phone holder, the vast majority of which Samsung gave away for free for buying their phones.

Which isn't true, but I see you may be a bit salty that they were the leading VR brand.


Oculus Go was well below Q1

I never mentioned Oculus Go, are you just listing things you don't like?
 

Baki

Member
And how many games sold is that? maybe 100,000? Those numbers are terrible for the instal base. And 67% of games don't even hit that.

-
Meta takes 30% each sale. So a game selling for $20 is making $14.
That's only 72k copies sold. Meaning less than 1% of Quest owners bought the game at launch.

That's bad for a user base of over 20 million.

EDIT: Corrected %. It's MUCH worse than I initially thought.

Welcome to the world of software. A better way to estimate the health of a system is to look at tie ratios. The $1.5B is from the summer and so the userbase was probably at 15-18M then. Considering an ASP of $20, we can assume that 75M units of software have been sold on the Quest 2 store.

75M units / 15-18M = Tie ratio of 4.16-5 games per unit

That's a pretty healthy tie ratio and in-line with other portable consoles. Almost the same tie ratio as the Gameboy or 3DS. Here's a comparison with Nintendo devices.

y2N8Nnh.png
 

Baki

Member
Irrelevant.

Quest one got peoples attention and was the fastest selling headset at the time, which was made to test the waters, they had to release Quest 2 sooner than expected to take advantage of what they had, and they did, and the Quest 2 became the fastest and best selling headset, and they cut stock of the former down so they could have production focused primarily on the Quest 2 to meet demand. Everyone knew it was a big deal.



Which isn't true, but I see you may be a bit salty that they were the leading VR brand.




I never mentioned Oculus Go, are you just listing things you don't like?

People can't see past their hate of Meta to know that Quest is the only game in town when it comes to VR. All the other platforms are way too niche to support developers. PSVR took 5 years and multiple holiday sales just to get to 5M. Wired VR is never going to be heavily supported.
 

Elitro

Member
The price point is high, but for me the real problem is being locked to ps5. If this was compatible with the PC it would do much better.
 
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