• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

Actually, I think it shows determination.

Why aren't free games a great way of competing, as long as they are quality titles?
It absolutely is desperation. Microsoft is essentially giving away every big new game to get people to buy their console. Thats forgoing a lot of revenue and is not something theyd want to do.

Sony is cruising into this holiday season with a ton of momentum. No price cuts. No free games. And they will still outsell the competition. And thats because they executed their game plan well.
 
Well software is supposed to be the counterpart to the loss-leader hardware. When you start giving both away at a loss, your bottom line starts looking less appealing. Obviously it's not the end of the world for them, but they need to make the system desirable as a value proposition without an additional freebie

Obviously they'd like to sell the Xbox as is, but I think they're willing to bite the bullet to make the Xbox a bit more relevant this holiday.
And as a gamer, that still isn't a reason why bundled games is a bad precedent. In fact, I wish all consoles came with a game to play right away.

Also, I thought the rumor was that they weren't selling the Xbone at a loss.


No it shows an excellent display of capitalism.

The consumer is the winner here.

I honestly never thought I'd see Biker concerned about Microsoft's financial well-being.
 
Obviously they'd like to sell the Xbox as is, but I think they're willing to bite the bullet to make the Xbox a bit more relevant this holiday.
And as a gamer, that still isn't a reason why bundled games is a bad precedent. In fact, I wish all consoles came with a game to play right away.

Also, I thought the rumor was that they weren't selling the Xbone at a loss.

I'm fine with it. Whatever gives me more shit for less or equal money is always welcome. In fact, it would be great for everyone if they start closing the gap. It would kick Sony's ass back into gear.
 
Well software is supposed to be the counterpart to the loss-leader hardware. When you start giving both away at a loss, your bottom line starts looking less appealing. Obviously it's not the end of the world for them, but they need to make the system desirable as a value proposition without an additional freebie

Oh you are forgetting something important, the X1 and PS4 will be around until 2020 at least. If you win a customer now, you get to make money off of him for 6 years (sub + games). And since "all-digital" is the future (the freebie games are downloads not boxes BTW) customers will build a library of digital games.
It is important for MS and Sony to have people buy digital content on their accounts.
Once the next gen comes around it will be hard to switch from Live to PSN if you already have 300€ worth of digital content tied to your account.
So giving away a download code per customer is really effective.
 
It absolutely is desperation. Microsoft is essentially giving away every big new game to get people to buy their console. Thats forgoing a lot of revenue and is not something theyd want to do.

Sony is cruising into this holiday season with a ton of momentum. No price cuts. No free games. And they will still outsell the competition. And thats because they executed their game plan well.

As someone pointed out, once someone buys an Xbox, they buy into the ecosystem. Microsoft would make back up the cost of including free games after a couple years.

And, let's be honest, Sony is coasting, at best, into this holiday season. They may have the more powerful console, but they really have to pull their socks up and get off their ass. The threads regarding PSN problems and lack of solid updates with requested features are increasing in frequency around here.
 

Megatron

Member
It absolutely is desperation. Microsoft is essentially giving away every big new game to get people to buy their console. Thats forgoing a lot of revenue and is not something theyd want to do.

Sony is cruising into this holiday season with a ton of momentum. No price cuts. No free games. And they will still outsell the competition. And thats because they executed their game plan well.

They executed their game plan really well a year -plus ago. Since then it's been a lot of sitting on their asses. While Microsoft begs gamers to give them another chance Sony charges full price for their bundles, doesn't secure third party exclusives and takes forever to implement OS features that were promised over a year ago. I guess as a first month ps4 owner I don't feel burned because the ps4 prices never dropped the way I might had I bought an xb1 at launch, but in the time since launch I've been pretty underwhelmed by what I've seen from Sony.
 

SpartanN92

Banned
I honestly never thought I'd see Biker concerned about Microsoft's financial well-being.


He's not...for some reason people in this thread actually care which multi-billion dollar company is beating the other in one division of their company.

And now that one of these companies is finally beginning to see success (Perhaps due to a change in policy, image, leadership, and a fantastic fall lineup) people feel the need to invalidate that success because they prefer the other multi-billion dollar company's device.

Human nature and all.


Bitchy snark aside...by Thursday this thread will be epic.
 
This is a tough one. I'm not sure MS did outsell it but if they did good for them. The holiday season is going to be a fist fight for sure.
 

Two Words

Member
They executed their game plan really well a year -plus ago. Since then it's been a lot of sitting on their asses. While Microsoft begs gamers to give them another chance Sony charges full price for their bundles, doesn't secure third party exclusives and takes forever to implement OS features that were promised over a year ago. I guess as a first month ps4 owner I don't feel burned because the ps4 prices never dropped the way I might had I bought an xb1 at launch, but in the time since launch I've been pretty underwhelmed by what I've seen from Sony.
Why would you list securing third party exclusives?
 

Trojan

Member
I can't see XBone winning by a 30% margin during Destiny month. The UK saw huge PS4 increases solely from that game's release. Pachter either has some inside info or he spent the weekend in Colorado smoking bowls.
 
I can't see XBone winning by a 30% margin during Destiny month. The UK saw huge PS4 increases solely from that game's release. Pachter either has some inside info or he spent the weekend in Colorado smoking bowls.

The PS4 Destiny bundle did indeed do well, but so did the unofficial X1 Destiny bundle.

I could see it being close in the US with the PS4 inching out a win.
 

MRMagoo

Neo Member
I don't own either consoles, but from what i hear PSN handled Destiny fine, it has primarily been Drive Club that is having the server issues.

It handled it better than the so called "superior" live service and it had double the users, I think some people just spout BS because no one calls them out on it to prove it. Then you also get the people that dont care about sales at all for months on end and now an analyst says the xbox one may have won in just the US for one month and they go ape crap crazy like the tides have turned, they will all go away again when NPD comes out and shows PS4 ahead easily again, and pretend sales dont matter again.
 

Guerrilla

Member
While I would bet Pachter is wrong, and this prediction seems crazy, maybe we are underestimating the power of the Madden bundle and impulse buyers. The "casual" crowd might start to move in... (Just trying to make sense of this)
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
The PS4 Destiny bundle did indeed do well, but so did the unofficial X1 Destiny bundle.

I could see it being close in the US with the PS4 inching out a win.

Putting aside the xbox numbers for a second, the PS4 numbers just look unrealistic. Those PS4 numbers are barely August numbers extrapolate out for the 5 weeks in September. August will have had lower numbers due to people waiting in the destiny white bundle, so both August will have been proportionately lower, and September will be proportionately higher.
 

Biker19

Banned
It handled it better than the so called "superior" live service and it had double the users, I think some people just spout BS because no one calls them out on it to prove it. Then you also get the people that dont care about sales at all for months on end and now an analyst says the xbox one may have won in just the US for one month and they go ape crap crazy like the tides have turned, they will all go away again when NPD comes out and shows PS4 ahead easily again, and pretend sales dont matter again.

I agree. People are so gullible.

Hell, users like Aquamarine sure as hell doesn't believe anything Patcher says, either.
 
Putting aside the xbox numbers for a second, the PS4 numbers just look unrealistic. Those PS4 numbers are barely August numbers extrapolate out for the 5 weeks in September. August will have had lower numbers due to people waiting in the destiny white bundle, so both August will have been proportionately lower, and September will be proportionately higher.

Yup, I can't see the PS4 selling that low during a month where the big ticket title is primarily marketing on the console.

I think the PS4 will be closer to 325k with the X1 coming in at 300k or slightly above.
 

LAA

Member
Simply wrong again (...Most probably)
I believe the UK sold a ton of PS4'S because of Destiny and perhaps Fifa sold more PS4'S too (and probably X1s too).

I don't understand why firstly, anyone would trust is predictions, I remember him saying TV and netflix would sell the X1 more than PS4...turned out well didn't it... and secondly, he never makes "safe" predictions. Honestly whatever the general feeling on the Internet has and all the values that support a certain outcome, he says the exact opposite, how does he get paid, honestly. His track record surely isn't good at all. I don't even know a prediction of his that turned out right.
 
It handled it better than the so called "superior" live service and it had double the users, I think some people just spout BS because no one calls them out on it to prove it. Then you also get the people that dont care about sales at all for months on end and now an analyst says the xbox one may have won in just the US for one month and they go ape crap crazy like the tides have turned, they will all go away again when NPD comes out and shows PS4 ahead easily again, and pretend sales dont matter again.

What happened to Live during Destiny's release?

Giving away free games just to get on the top spot isn't exactly a great way of competing. It shows desperation.

You've heard of the concept of value adds right?

Adding free games isn't always a sign of desperation. It can often be a sign of there being some room for a price cut but instead of having an actual price cut, games/subs/etc are added.

It's why you're seeing so many great PS4 and X1 bundles in the UK. A PS4 with three free games and a year plus sub for £399.99? Is that a sign of desperation from Sony?.

Or a similar bundle for a similar price from MS?
 

MRMagoo

Neo Member
I think even if they did some how get higher sales in the US (which I very much doubt) what would it actually do, the world wide numbers are far more important and unless MS somehow outsells the PS4 world wide the gap will only keep getting wider.
 

womfalcs3

Banned
How does he or his organization generate estimates? Do they perform statistical sampling? Do they have a mathematical model? What are the details of their estimate?
 

madmackem

Member
What happened to Live during Destiny's release?



You've heard of the concept of value adds right?

Adding free games isn't always a sign of desperation. It can often be a sign of there being some room for a price cut but instead of having an actual price cut, games/subs/etc are added.

It's why you're seeing so many great PS4 and X1 bundles in the UK. A PS4 with three free games and a year plus sub for £399.99? Is that a sign of desperation from Sony?.

Or a similar bundle for a similar price from MS?

Come on ms wouldnt be price cutting and tossing in free games if it was leading the ps4. It is what it is and if pachter is right (giggles) the free games and getting a bit desperate might have worked for a month.
 
Come on ms wouldnt be price cutting and tossing in free games if it was leading the ps4. It is what it is and if pachter is right (giggles) the free games and getting a bit desperate might have worked for a month.

I don't agree with calling value adds desperate. They happen all the time, it's not something that's exclusive to the trailing product.

If it were, you wouldn't see similarly or better value bundles for the PS4. They can be seen as a soft way of passing on savings to the consumer while still retaining the base value of the product.
 

SMOK3Y

Generous Member
How does it being desperate make it a bad precedent? Do you not like bundled games as a consumer?

the sad bit is in AU they are giving away XBones with other things I remember when the OGXbox released you could nearly buy a paddle pop & get a free Xbox with it (not quite but not far off)
 
XB1 couldn't outsell PS4 even during the month of Titanfall's release or the month of its price drop, and yet its going to outsell PS4 when the its the month Destiny releases and the month where the white bundle is released.......errr no.
 
It's a logical assumption from Pachter, but it doesn't always work.
Microsoft packed in FIFA for free and FIFA sold waaaaaay better for PS4 in UK.

In order for him to be right, all those PS4 Destiny players must already own their console... but we know about that White Bundle so it won't be true.
 
An interesting spectacle as to how much stock people seem to have in which console sells the most. Maybe everyone in here does own stock in these companies. Except me
:[ it would be hard to imagine it outselling the PS4, but yeah I kinda want to see how insane things would get if it did. This thread already feels very NPDish.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Why do people hope that this is true so sony will "announce more exclusives?" They already have more exclusives announced for next year than X1, even if we're just counting the first half of the year
 
Could be for the long term , this position your taking looks like your clutching straws.
Long term investment is debatable and nebulous. What position am I taking that's clutching straws? Software sales are where money is. The added value is great for a consumer. It's not necessarily great for a company, especially if they end up losing money that would have been better spent on say, advertising.
 

EGM1966

Member
Interesting. Seems against all trends - big Sony aligned releases seem to guarantee results.

On the other hand MS have dipped into their war chest to try an undercut tactic showering market with free games and bundles with free games. Obviously a tactic only deployed when you're worried about being so far behind and have money to burn but nonetheless one that can work with consumers.

Would he really predict this without some evidence? On the other hand it seems a pretty big swing against trends.

Guess we'll soon know.
 

freefornow

Gold Member
the sad bit is in AU they are giving away XBones with other things I remember when the OGXbox released you could nearly buy a paddle pop & get a free Xbox with it (not quite but not far off)
Yeah, I remember a console that was given away when you bought the manufacturers TV's and what not.
 

Murdoch

Member
Either way, I think its going to be a given the XboxOne will sell more in either October/November because of the Sunset Overdrive/Halo MCC push. I picked a sunset bundle up for that exact reason and I'm sure Halo is a good a system seller as any IP on the market.
 

Trojan

Member
Just in: Pachter confirms "Bonestorm" will lead NPD Sales in September

Bonestorm.jpg


Tumblr_medfkcDwLI1qm6tzso1_500.jpg
 

scoobs

Member
Either way, I think its going to be a given the XboxOne will sell more in either October/November because of the Sunset Overdrive/Halo MCC push. I picked a sunset bundle up for that exact reason and I'm sure Halo is a good a system seller as any IP on the market.

I seriously doubt SO will push many units, kinda seems like that games not gonna do so hot but I could be wrong. MCC will definitely though... if anything can push the XB1 over the hump its that game(s). What does PS4 have to combat MCC? That might be the month. I see it as a HUGE longshot for September though. But hey, Pachter probably knows more than I do so... maybe he's on to something? Logistically, it makes almost no sense.
 
Top Bottom