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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

Radec

Member
Seems like some of you have really high hopes for MCC to make Xbone win November even if the reality is most likely those who want MCC already has an Xbone.

Good luck with that.
 

GeoramA

Member
I think the PS4 will win every month the rest of this year.
I said the same thing when they won March. But XB1 is cheaper then it was then and there will be some great bundles out there. I do think people are over-estimating the MC Collection, though.

Sony always has good November bundles too, so it'll be interesting.
 

shwimpy

Member
Theres a bundle coming, and I expect MS to give the game a decently sized marketing campaign. Borderlands sold well, SO could as well.
Borderlands wasn't exclusive to one console... especially a console without a sizeable userbase.

edit - beaten; also why are you comparing Borderlands to SO in the first place?
 

Picklock

Member
I would like to see it to be true, it feels to me like Sony is just sitting back and has been for the last 6 months, maybe a shock would force them to step up.
I just don't see it though unfortunately, I can't see Pachter being close on this one.

I'd like to see more from Sony as well.
 

StoopKid

Member
The next-gen remaster? There hasn't been much, not on the level of most other releases at least. Sure, there's people who are like "oh it's coming out for new gen? sure I'll buy it." But almost nobody on the level of "Fucking hype, can't wait to get it, I'll definitely buy a new console for it" like there was for Destiny or even MCC. Hell, even FH2 and Driveclub had more hype than GTA V has at this point.

lmao

Im so saving this for november npd.
 

Wynnebeck

Banned
For new buyers yes. It would have sold regardless of when it releases. But if you are double dipping. Those 200+ awards or how good the game is doesnt really matter because you have already played it. And you are voting with your wallet. Should I buy new games which are coming out or should I buy TLOU which I love but I just played it. Just think about it. Simple logic.

That's naively simplistic. You could just as easily go, "Hmm, should I buy the newest game of several stale series such as Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty (which Ghosts sucked last year), Dragon Age: Inquisition, etc. or play the remastered version of one of the best games of last year with updated graphics, difficulty, and other features?" Simple logic says that it doesn't matter when a game is released. If the quality and interest is there, there will be a group of people to buy whether they are new or double dipping. I'm not even sure what you are even arguing anymore lol.
 

RexNovis

Banned
This is the first time his predictions have been completely off base though, in the past, his numbers are wrong, but he gets it right about PS4 being number one.

I was simply trying to understand his thought process, instead of just calling him names.

You said

Pachter seems to be pretty educated when it comes to the NPD, he never really makes any stupid estimates.

Which is factually false. He had XB1 winning Titanfall release month and was off on XB1 sales by nearly 400k. He regularly attributes consumer value to the most obscure things and is consistently wrong. When you are wrong 90% of the time by a margin greater than 30% of total sales then you, by definition, make "stupid estimates."

Seeing as you didn't post in the NPD thread at all and the vast majority of gaming related threads you post in are related to Xbox my (possibly incorrect) assumption is that you just saw the title and had to come in to assert your blatant bias here. A bias that has become PAINFULLY obvious in multiple threads the past few weeks and the fact that in doing so you defend the validity of a market analyst who is so consistently wrong that he has become an ongoing joke just proves the point that much more. His predictions are absurd and anyone with even a slight grasp on reality recognizes that. Then you go on to say you think it will be close this month despite literally every piece of retailer abs sales info we have received indicating a blowout for Sony due to the Destiny Bundle. So let's not pretend you are being logical here and just call a spade a spade.

Theres a bundle coming, and I expect MS to give the game a decently sized marketing campaign. Borderlands sold well, SO could as well.

Logic? Do you posses it? The two games aren't analogous at all. You can't compare the success of a FPSRPGS multiplat game to an open world console exclusive Insomniac game simply because they both have pretty colors.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Totally different situations. For one, TLOU didnt release in a month of new COD, AC, Far Cry. And for second, TLOU did not sell anywhere close to what GTA5 sold even on only PS3. What I am trying to say is there were lot of new PS4 owners who never played TLOU. So the potential sale was there but GTA has already been played by millions of gamers just about a year ago on both console.

For new buyers yes. It would have sold regardless of when it releases. But if you are double dipping. Those 200+ awards or how good the game is doesnt really matter because you have already played it. And you are voting with your wallet. Should I buy new games which are coming out or should I buy TLOU which I love but I just played it. Just think about it. Simple logic.

Wait a minute, you lost me. Which version are you making an argument for only selling well because it released in the summer, the original or the remaster? Your posts are referencing different versions.


Leave it to Rex to turn a one sentence argument into a paragraph.
 
Nah, bragging rights is too pedestrian. Let's do something fun.

If you end up being wrong, you have to get an "I Believe in Phil Spencer" tag for your avatar here for six months.

Sure, but I'll do it for 3 months, six is excessive. But if MS doesn't win Nov, then you use a kaz avatar for 3 months. Seems fair..

I said the same thing when they won March. But XB1 is cheaper then it was then and there will be some great bundles out there. I do think people are over-estimating the MC Collection, though.

Sony always has good November bundles too, so it'll be interesting.

But it's still not cheaper than the PS4. I think Sony is going to impress everyone by actually doing something.

Guys, just don't forget multis are selling better on PS4 even when Microsoft is promoting them.

Yup, as I said, people seem to be thinking Sony won't do anything at all. It's baffling.
 
The whole point is statistically you would know more people with a PS4 than an Xbox one, maybe there is a chance you know more people that would not consider the PS4 but statistically if you average it out more people would know people that own a PS4 , I am not saying its is the same for every person but there is more chance because of it. If I have a bag full of coins, there where 100 gold coins and 50 solver coins, if I stuck my hand inside without looking chances are I would get a gold coin, I cant make it more simple than that........but pretty much every time I see a comment about getting a multiplat game the people that "own both" get it on Xbox one because they know more people with one, I just find that odd statistically speaking.

You guys aren't alone. I also have way more friends on XBL than PSN. (200+ vs. 8. Yes, eight). It could be we're statistical outliers. But when it comes to market trends, previous purchase habits and consumer mindshare can trump pure statistics. Even with MS screwing up the Xbone launch badly, their online momentum, better online infrastructure, arguably more naturally social ergonomics, etc...is important.


So I don't think there's as much of a mystery here as we might think at first glance. At least in the United States, XBL was far more successful than PSN at building an online social gaming experience during the PS360 Gen. That's a lot of momentum from millions of gamers who became attached to how XBL works and "feels". After Microsoft did their best launch effort to piss off the entire gaming universe, millions of those XBL gamers "switched" to PS4 early in this gen. Most probably expected PSN to be similar to XBL but found out that for better or worse it doesn't have a similar layout. My personal online experience with PS4 has been similar to PS3 in that the way it works just isn't as conducive to adding/making new friends on the fly when gaming. Some of this is subjective preference, but I think a bit of it is objective in that the PS4's UI just isn't very good (yet) when it comes to certain functions.

The end result for me: I own both new Gen systems. Due primarily to the PS4's significant ~30%-40% horsepower advantage + my disgust for MS's anti-consumer bullshit I initially intended to buy all multiplats on PS4. But over the past year PSN has not done enough to make itself a better, more social experience. So, provided there aren't huge visual/performance differences I'm thinking of going Xbone for MP multiplats and PS4 for SP multiplats. A lot of that is due to all the XBL friends I've carried over from 360, but a lot of it is also that the PS4's online experience just isn't quite as easily social for my tastes.

Edit: I'm sure also has a lot to do with preferences for certain titles and exclusives. Titanfall may be a lot less than many of us hoped for, but so far its been the best online experience I've had by far. By comparison, Destiny came off as a repetitive grind and not to my tastes. So I added a bunch of new XBL friends when playing Titanfall but ended up returning Destiny for a refund after adding just a handful of friends.
 

Biker19

Banned
The next-gen remaster? There hasn't been much, not on the level of most other releases at least. Sure, there's people who are like "oh it's coming out for new gen? sure I'll buy it." But almost nobody on the level of "Fucking hype, can't wait to get it, I'll definitely buy a new console for it" like there was for Destiny or even MCC. Hell, even FH2 and Driveclub had more hype than GTA V has at this point.

You really think that a lot of people aren't already pre-ordering the PS4 version of GTA V at this very moment? C'mon.
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Wait a minute, you lost me. Which version are you making an argument for only selling well because it released in the summer, the original or the remaster? Your posts are referencing different versions.



Leave it to Rex to turn a one sentence argument into a paragraph.

huh? Obviously we are talking about the remastered edition right now.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Deal!

You're all witnesses.

Got your avatar ready :)

18hfc1eb5sbrpjpg.jpg
 
Seems like some of you have really high hopes for MCC to make Xbone win November even if the reality is most likely those who want MCC already has an Xbone.

Good luck with that.


Every game out there is not able to purchase a next gen console.

Those who want X already have ABC, has always been a flawed argument.
 

Hindle

Banned
You said



Which is factually false. He had XB1 winning Titanfall release month and was off on XB1 sales by nearly 400k. He regularly attributes consumer value to the most obscure things and is consistently wrong. When you are wrong 90% of the time by a margin greater than 30% of total sales then you, by definition, make "stupid estimates."

Seeing as you didn't post in the NPD thread at all and the vast majority of gaming related threads you post in are related to Xbox my (possibly incorrect) assumption is that you just saw the title and had to come in to assert your blatant bias here. A bias that has become PAINFULLY obvious in multiple threads the past few weeks and the fact that in doing so you defend the validity of a market analyst who is so consistently wrong that he has become an ongoing joke just proves the point that much more. His predictions are absurd and anyone with even a slight grasp on reality recognizes that. Then you go on to say you think it will be close this month despite literally every piece of retailer abs sales info we have received indicating a blowout for Sony due to the Destiny Bundle. So let's not pretend you are being logical here and just call a spade a spade.

Of course I know this prediction is absurd, but it's a lot more crazy then his recent predictions. And yea, it will be close this month in the NPD, the PS4 will win, but not by a landslide. The combination of great bundles, free games, 12 years of Live dominance will keep things close for MS.

I am being logical, it's just people don't like what I say. There is a difference.

And no, I have no bias to either console, as I've stated in the past, but this has nothing to do with the subject at hand,
 

Hindle

Banned
Borderlands wasn't exclusive to one console... especially a console without a sizeable userbase.

edit - beaten; also why are you comparing Borderlands to SO in the first place?

Both games have an awesome unique art style that helps them stand out.

Both games have a charismatic sense of humour.

Both games have a great personality.

And both just look fun to play.

These are the reasons why I think SO will do well.
 
You really think that a lot of people aren't already pre-ordering the PS4 version of GTA V at this very moment? C'mon.

That's not what I said? I said that there's people interested in it who will buy it, but nobody's tripping over other people in a rush to buy GTA V with a new PS4.

Edit: I missed the "a lot" part of your statement. No, I don't think the amount of people waiting to buy GTA V can be quantified as "a lot." It'll do decently, but the majority of the audience of gamers who would buy it have already played it and will most likely pass over it with much more enticing games coming out that month and the month before. Plus the fact remains that it's multiplat and Sony co-marketing won't do much for a game barely advertised and that the public already knows is multiplat. I think people are really ignoring that fact in an attempt to justify GTA V as being a big system seller for PS4. I just don't see it, especially when some of the same people are downplaying MCC as being a system seller.
 

SMOK3Y

Generous Member
You guys aren't alone. I also have way more friends on XBL than PSN. (200+ vs. 8. Yes, eight). It could be we're statistical outliers. But when it comes to market trends, previous purchase habits and consumer mindshare can trump pure statistics. Even with MS screwing up the Xbone launch badly, their online momentum, better online infrastructure, arguably more naturally social ergonomics, etc...is important.

excuse me for deleting most of post


PS4's online experience just isn't quite as easily social for my tastes.

its funny, the thing I love about PS4 is its less social lol :D
 

Hubble

Member
You guys aren't alone. I also have way more friends on XBL than PSN. (200+ vs. 8. Yes, eight). It could be we're statistical outliers. But when it comes to market trends, previous purchase habits and consumer mindshare can trump pure statistics. Even with MS screwing up the Xbone launch badly, their online momentum, better online infrastructure, arguably more naturally social ergonomics, etc...is important.


So I don't think there's as much of a mystery here as we might think at first glance. At least in the United States, XBL was far more successful than PSN at building an online social gaming experience during the PS360 Gen. That's a lot of momentum from millions of gamers who became attached to how XBL works and "feels". After Microsoft did their best launch effort to piss off the entire gaming universe, millions of those XBL gamers "switched" to PS4 early in this gen. Most probably expected PSN to be similar to XBL but found out that for better or worse it doesn't have a similar layout. My personal online experience with PS4 has been similar to PS3 in that the way it works just isn't as conducive to adding/making new friends on the fly when gaming. Some of this is subjective preference, but I think a bit of it is objective in that the PS4's UI just isn't very good (yet) when it comes to certain functions.

The end result for me: I own both new Gen systems. Due primarily to the PS4's significant ~30%-40% horsepower advantage + my disgust for MS's anti-consumer bullshit I initially intended to buy all multiplats on PS4. But over the past year PSN has not done enough to make itself a better, more social experience. So, provided there aren't huge visual/performance differences I'm thinking of going Xbone for MP multiplats and PS4 for SP multiplats. A lot of that is due to all the XBL friends I've carried over from 360, but a lot of it is also that the PS4's online experience just isn't quite as easily social for my tastes.

Edit: I'm sure also has a lot to do with preferences for certain titles and exclusives. Titanfall may be a lot less than many of us hoped for, but so far its been the best online experience I've had by far. By comparison, Destiny came off as a repetitive grind and not to my tastes. So I added a bunch of new XBL friends when playing Titanfall but ended up returning Destiny for a refund after adding just a handful of friends.

Great post. +1. While I think Pachter is wrong for the month, I know a lot of people who feel the same who are just purchasing Xbox for the ecosystem, UI, online, and not necessarily for the specs that includes PS4 owners who see it as "better". I think this gen is in for a long haul battle. The vast majority of 360 and PS3 gamers have not purchased a new console yet.
 

Teletraan1

Banned
I honestly can't even tell if your joking or not.

Nah. I dont care about OS updates. I was just reading the thread and noticed a few posts talking up OS updates as some huge positive or negative in terms of selling consoles. I hope their comments were in jest as well.

The 3.58MHz is a reference to the slow processor in the SNES compared to the Genesis. Not that it really mattered in terms of sales. So I guess useless talking points about consoles aren't really new.
 

Einbroch

Banned
You guys aren't alone. I also have way more friends on XBL than PSN. (200+ vs. 8. Yes, eight).

How the hell do you have 200+ friends? They can't all be friends. If you're going online to get your friends, then you can easily find another source that has 200+ PS people that want friends.

Unless you're honestly telling me you have 200 friends, in real life, that have 360s and only eight that have PS3s. In that case, you definitely are an outlier.
 
I really can't understand how the chartz threads are turning out nowadays. 1000 posts because Xbox One is solding better than the PS4 during one month ? Xbox One and PS4 are almost the same console, so is it incredible for the less expensive console to sold better ? No, it is normal. Furthermore, the Xbox One has more big exclusives than the PS4.

What is incredible is that the PS4 sold better than the Xbox One every month while she is more expensive, do not invert things guys...
 

Two Words

Member
Am I the only person that thinks we've seen far too little of Sunset Overdrive? It's out soon and all that has been shown is a stage demo.
 
My God the NPD thread on Thursday if this happens. September is usually an awesome month for NPD in general (first of the major months in the run-up to Christmas) but if Pachter proves correct this would be shocking and meaningful news. Most of us on GAF who have a connection to the heartbeat of the industry are acutely aware that Sony, month after month is winning with powerful momentum that since launch has been this unstoppable force that Microsoft thus far has failed to surmount. For Microsoft to take a month, even just one, it could mean that perhaps they have a chance in North America after all.

Do I think Pachter is correct? I think that although he is unpopular on here and has been infamously wrong in many occasions he has access to indicators that we simply don't have so his opinion and predictions are more probable than most.

I'm excited for NPD on Thursday now. Should be a great thread.
 

Hindle

Banned
You guys aren't alone. I also have way more friends on XBL than PSN. (200+ vs. 8. Yes, eight). It could be we're statistical outliers. But when it comes to market trends, previous purchase habits and consumer mindshare can trump pure statistics. Even with MS screwing up the Xbone launch badly, their online momentum, better online infrastructure, arguably more naturally social ergonomics, etc...is important.


So I don't think there's as much of a mystery here as we might think at first glance. At least in the United States, XBL was far more successful than PSN at building an online social gaming experience during the PS360 Gen. That's a lot of momentum from millions of gamers who became attached to how XBL works and "feels". After Microsoft did their best launch effort to piss off the entire gaming universe, millions of those XBL gamers "switched" to PS4 early in this gen. Most probably expected PSN to be similar to XBL but found out that for better or worse it doesn't have a similar layout. My personal online experience with PS4 has been similar to PS3 in that the way it works just isn't as conducive to adding/making new friends on the fly when gaming. Some of this is subjective preference, but I think a bit of it is objective in that the PS4's UI just isn't very good (yet) when it comes to certain functions.

The end result for me: I own both new Gen systems. Due primarily to the PS4's significant ~30%-40% horsepower advantage + my disgust for MS's anti-consumer bullshit I initially intended to buy all multiplats on PS4. But over the past year PSN has not done enough to make itself a better, more social experience. So, provided there aren't huge visual/performance differences I'm thinking of going Xbone for MP multiplats and PS4 for SP multiplats. A lot of that is due to all the XBL friends I've carried over from 360, but a lot of it is also that the PS4's online experience just isn't quite as easily social for my tastes.

Edit: I'm sure also has a lot to do with preferences for certain titles and exclusives. Titanfall may be a lot less than many of us hoped for, but so far its been the best online experience I've had by far. By comparison, Destiny came off as a repetitive grind and not to my tastes. So I added a bunch of new XBL friends when playing Titanfall but ended up returning Destiny for a refund after adding just a handful of friends.

Excellent post.
 

Hubble

Member
Am I the only person that thinks we've seen far too little of Sunset Overdrive? It's out soon and all that has been shown is a stage demo.

They been doing Sunset TV a small snippet every week showing new features, abilities, and just revealing more stuff about the game e.g., how you travel, customizing, etc., so no.
 

JAYSIMPLE

Banned
I can only imagine meltdowns on here if it was true. It's been said fir ages that Sony would flatten the competition in September. They paid all that money for that exclusive destiny hype. It would be bad if they did get outsold


Memorabilia excellent post. My sentiments to a t as well.
 
How the hell do you have 200+ friends? They can't all be friends. If you're going online to get your friends, then you can easily find another source that has 200+ PS people that want friends.

Unless you're honestly telling me you have 200 friends, in real life, that have 360s and only eight that have PS3s. In that case, you definitely are an outlier.
Add me to the "how do you have that many friends" crowd. I've got like 10 friends on PS and 5 on XBL. I can't imagine having that many people in my friends list. I also don't see what such anecdotal evidence proves.
 

USC-fan

Banned
If ps4 didnt out sell xbone 2:1 its a win for ms imo. Sony big gun was destiny this fall.

I just cannot find anyway xbone > ps4.
 

DrkSage

Member
That's for both consoles:

360 to One
PS3 to PS4
360 to PS4
PS3 to One

Ah, good to know. I haven't been keeping up with any news related to GTA V. The last piece of news I heard about this game was from ign some months ago about heist still not being avaible.
 

Wynnebeck

Banned
My God the NPD thread on Thursday if this happens. September is usually an awesome month for NPD in general (first of the major months in the run-up to Christmas) but if Pachter proves correct this would be shocking and meaningful news. Most of us on GAF who have a connection to the heartbeat of the industry are acutely aware that Sony, month after month is winning with powerful momentum that since launch has been this unstoppable force that Microsoft thus far has failed to surmount. For Microsoft to take a month, even just one, it could mean that perhaps they have a chance in North America after all.

Do I think Pachter is correct? I think that although he is unpopular on here and has been infamously wrong in many occasions he has access to indicators that we simply don't have so his opinion and predictions are more probable than most.

I'm excited for NPD on Thursday now. Should be a great thread.

Easy tiger lol. All it will mean is that MS's free game with a Xbone was a successful campaign. Sony isn't going to flinch over losing a month considering the position they are in. MS would have to outsell them 3-4 months in a row before Sony actually would get worried.
 

Quotient

Member
I can only imagine meltdowns on here if it was true. It's been said fir ages that Sony would flatten the competition in September. They paid all that money for that exclusive destiny hype. It would be bad if they did get outsold

If Microsoft does outsell Sony it is bad for both:

Microsoft - the realization that the only way to outsell the PS4 is to basically give away games with the console. Is this something they can keep doing for perpetuity.

Sony - was the marketing investment in Destiny worth it if their competitor can just bundle games, or just offer a free game for a week, and out-sell them.
 

kyser73

Member
I really can't understand how the chartz threads are turning out nowadays. 1000 posts because Xbox One is solding better than the PS4 during one month ? Xbox One and PS4 are almost the same console, so is it incredible for the less expensive console to sold better ? No, it is normal. Furthermore, the Xbox One has more big exclusives than the PS4.

What is incredible is that the PS4 sold better than the Xbox One every month while she is more expensive, do not invert things guys...

Eh? The One is price matched against the PS4 now, but for most of the last year the PS4 has been the cheaper console.
 

Hindle

Banned
If Sonys issues with online continue into the holiday, then thier reputation will take a hit especially in NA. A guy who can't play Cod or AC because of Sonys incompetence will just go and buy an Xbox, and from then on, it will be a domino effect.
 

Biker19

Banned
If Microsoft does outsell Sony it is bad for both:

Microsoft - the realization that the only way to outsell the PS4 is to basically give away games with the console. Is this something they can keep doing for perpetuity.

Sony - was the marketing investment in Destiny worth it if their competitor can just bundle games, or just offer a free game for a week, and out-sell them.

This. It'll just set a bad precedent all around if Microsoft gets successful with this practice.

If Sonys issues with online continue into the holiday, then thier reputation will take a hit especially in NA. A guy who can't play Cod or AC because of Sonys incompetence will just go and buy an Xbox, and from then on, it will be a domino effect.

You really think that Sony isn't working on the online stuff right now?
 
If Microsoft does outsell Sony it is bad for both:

Microsoft - the realization that the only way to outsell the PS4 is to basically give away games with the console. Is this something they can keep doing for perpetuity.

Sony - was the marketing investment in Destiny worth it if their competitor can just bundle games, or just offer a free game for a week, and out-sell them.

This. It'll just set a bad precedent all around if Microsoft gets successful with this practice.

Free games??? Good lord, no! How ever do we stop this abomination?
 

kyser73

Member
I'm kind of hoping MS wins the month so it can light some sort of fire under Sony to get them to fix their network.

You do know that isn't how it works, right? You don't manage projects that large on the basis of a single month's sales in one territory.
 
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