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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Gran Turismo not having much competition in its genre (like Halo does) will definitely help it too.
As we learned from microsoft PR, competition in genre goes along with definition of genre.
Also, audience in the genre is much bigger (hen/egg). So: bigger cake, more eaters.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I still don't think it is a 1:1 comparison with what occurred to the X360...

Either way, I don't understand the complaints when we know titles like UC4, R&C, SFV, Gravity Rush, etc... are coming early next year. It would be different if there was a drought early next year and they were just riding on third party titles for the foreseeable future. That isn't the case though.

It wasn't the case for the 360 either. Multiplats getting the spotlight made some people feel that way though.

As such, it makes me question what it is about the holidays and needing to play big games? What difference does it really make playing UC4 just a few months later?

Not sure if they already own the system.
 
Is Wii U a current (next) gen console ? Its a dead console and getting successor NX next year according rumors, So Bloodborne is the highest rated exclusive game of current gen.
Wii U is in the same generation as the X1 and PS4. It just came out earlier. So no, BB is not the highest rated current gen exclusive. Just the same, the NX will be a gen ahead of PS4 and X1 until Sony and MS release their next console.
 

mejin

Member
Wii U is in the same generation as the X1 and PS4. It just came out earlier. So no, BB is not the highest rated current gen exclusive. Just the same, the NX will be a gen ahead of PS4 and X1 until Sony and MS release their next console.

Just because Nintendo is launching a new system it doesn't mean a new gen. With a console more or less stronger than PS4 I really wouldn't say NX is starting a new gen.
 

QaaQer

Member
Wii U is in the same generation as the X1 and PS4. It just came out earlier. So no, BB is not the highest rated current gen exclusive. Just the same, the NX will be a gen ahead of PS4 and X1 until Sony and MS release their next console.

Dear god, not the generation convo...
 
Well it certainly doesn't hurt to have something besides a couple Japanese games and a remaster collection. XB1 could be doing god awful numbers had it not been for their "Greatest Lineup In Xbox History". On the opposite end PS4 could be doing historic numbers had Uncharted and maybe R&C hit between October and November. I'm talking like 500k October(R&C+pricedrop opens up a new, younger demographic) and 1.5m November(Blockbuster franchise in Uncharted along with bundles and holiday pricing).
Ratchet had to be moved due to the movie release date.
 
Hello, NeoGAF forums. This is my first post on the NeoGAF, and I thought I'd kick it off by participating in this "NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions" game:

[PS4] 420K
[XB1] 360K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 80K

With my prediction I expect moderate, yet disappointing gains for U.S. Console Hardware on Thursday's data release.

October 2014 was weak for Microsoft's Xbox One, so the launch of the Halo 5: Guardians software SKU will likely more than double last year's sales, given how 2012's Halo 4 had a dramatic effect on Xbox 360 sales (270.2K in October 2012 bumped up to 1258.5K for November 2012)

However, from reports from this NeoGAF topic it appears that the U.S. Physical Retail launch of Halo 5: Guardians will suffer steep declines from the previous iteration (perhaps compensated by an increase in digital and non-USA sales?), so the overall effect on Xbox One sales will be far more negligible than its predecessor.

Sony's PlayStation 4 has a $50 price cut, but I believe that year-over-year growth will be tempered because it is offset by cooling demand for the product.


I expect Nintendo's Wii U to remain virtually unchanged from its September performance, as their 'Mario Maker' SKU continues to draw a niche but steady crowd to the system.


I hope that these video game consoles defy my expectations as the industry always benefits when both consoles succeed.
 
Hello, NeoGAF forums. This is my first post on the NeoGAF, and I thought I'd kick it off by participating in this "NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions" game:

[PS4] 420K
[XB1] 360K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 80K

With my prediction I expect moderate, yet disappointing gains for U.S. Console Hardware on Thursday's data release.

October 2014 was weak for Microsoft's Xbox One, so the launch of the Halo 5: Guardians software SKU will likely more than double last year's sales, given how 2012's Halo 4 had a dramatic effect on Xbox 360 sales (270.2K in October 2012 bumped up to 1258.5K for November 2012)

However, from reports from this NeoGAF topic it appears that the U.S. Physical Retail launch of Halo 5: Guardians will suffer steep declines from the previous iteration (perhaps compensated by an increase in digital and non-USA sales?), so the overall effect on Xbox One sales will be far more negligible than its predecessor.

Sony's PlayStation 4 has a $50 price cut, but I believe that year-over-year growth will be tempered because it is offset by cooling demand for the product.


I expect Nintendo's Wii U to remain virtually unchanged from its September performance, as their 'Mario Maker' SKU continues to draw a niche but steady crowd to the system.


I hope that these video game consoles defy my expectations as the industry always benefits when both consoles succeed.



Welcome to the Club! Good luck on your first predictions! :)
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I still don't think it is a 1:1 comparison with what occurred to the X360...

Either way, I don't understand the complaints when we know titles like UC4, R&C, SFV, Gravity Rush, etc... are coming early next year. It would be different if there was a drought early next year and they were just riding on third party titles for the foreseeable future. That isn't the case though.

As such, it makes me question what it is about the holidays and needing to play big games? What difference does it really make playing UC4 just a few months later?

6pKosKVr.gif
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Do you have a problem with what I said? Or were you just looking for an opportunity to post a gif?

An opportunity presented itself. First thing that popped into my head. As for discourse, "disagreeing" is better word usage, not "a problem" - language is key. My opinion on the matter is well documented in the many thousands of posts on Gaf. As for that specific sentence, no I don't disagree, although it's a minor inconvenience.
 
Wii U is in the same generation as the X1 and PS4. It just came out earlier. So no, BB is not the highest rated current gen exclusive. Just the same, the NX will be a gen ahead of PS4 and X1 until Sony and MS release their next console.

Don't want to get into this too much since it doesn't matter...but I don't really agree. Wii U came out much earlier than PS4/XB1 and is practically as powerful as a PS3 so I don't consider it with the PS4/XB1. Pretty comfortable saying Bloodborne is highest rated exclusive of this Gen.

Nintendo often does its own thing and has weird timing in the middle of console generations...so I think most people just use Sony and Microsoft as the barometers of console generations now.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Hello, NeoGAF forums. This is my first post on the NeoGAF, and I thought I'd kick it off by participating in this "NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions" game:

[PS4] 420K
[XB1] 360K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 80K

With my prediction I expect moderate, yet disappointing gains for U.S. Console Hardware on Thursday's data release.

October 2014 was weak for Microsoft's Xbox One, so the launch of the Halo 5: Guardians software SKU will likely more than double last year's sales, given how 2012's Halo 4 had a dramatic effect on Xbox 360 sales (270.2K in October 2012 bumped up to 1258.5K for November 2012)

However, from reports from this NeoGAF topic it appears that the U.S. Physical Retail launch of Halo 5: Guardians will suffer steep declines from the previous iteration (perhaps compensated by an increase in digital and non-USA sales?), so the overall effect on Xbox One sales will be far more negligible than its predecessor.

Sony's PlayStation 4 has a $50 price cut, but I believe that year-over-year growth will be tempered because it is offset by cooling demand for the product.


I expect Nintendo's Wii U to remain virtually unchanged from its September performance, as their 'Mario Maker' SKU continues to draw a niche but steady crowd to the system.


I hope that these video game consoles defy my expectations as the industry always benefits when both consoles succeed.

Welcome .

I hope all this is true because I based my Wii U prediction on hoping Mario Maker continued to help sell consoles...and the continued success of Splatoon.

This post plus the popcorn moment with Dyson and Bishop....I wonder if the NPD thread can compete. Who am I kidding....Halo 5 sales will be the main topic.
 

bombshell

Member
297K, but I was primarily referring to lackluster performance v. PS4 Sep-15's 538K with that comment.

You mean Sep-14, right? That saw the launch of Destiny, so that month is very hard to use as data of cooling demand when comparing to September number this year. All we know for certain is that YTD the PS4 is up so far for '15 compared to this far in '14. Or at least I think it is, please correct me if I'm wrong.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
I had the exact same reaction.

It was even more confusing with the previous gif (the one with the mouse cursor, picture-in-picture etc) it was so cluttered.

Should be exclusive to PoliGaf, not multi-forum. Although I am not sure the meme version with flat out words would of done any better. 50/50 purposefully stiff/honestly clueless. Perhaps I am generous on the split.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Is that really true though? Kazunori Yamauchi wants to make an RPG, but he keeps making Gran Turismo games. Is that because of how important GT is to SCE's business or is that just because they're a specialised studio? I mean, PD have made non-GT games in the past too, but ever since Gran Turismo became huge, have they done anything new?

Does he actually want to make an RPG? Seems like he really wants to do fuckall.
 
The difference always seemed to be that MS had a few very huge franchise and not much else.... Now when one tentpole crumbles it's more difficult for MS to handle than for Sony.
None of their tentpoles have crumbled except Fable. I think Halo 5's decline is pretty much commensurate with the overall lost strength of the Xbox brand. It's still a giant tentpole. And I expect Gears to be huge next year. Forza was never as big as the other three--bundles always helped it along--but it's still trucking. And strong enough now to be annual.
 
None of their tentpoles have crumbled except Fable. I think Halo 5's decline is pretty much commensurate with the overall lost strength of the Xbox brand. It's still a giant tentpole. And I expect Gears to be huge next year. Forza was never as big as the other three--bundles always helped it along--but it's still trucking. And strong enough now to be annual.

Is that really so though? i don't particularly think that the OG Xbox days had a stronger Xbox brand then the 360 days.
 
The WiiU will take October, you fools.

That would be excellent. Alas, I'm expecting a slim victory for MS simply because this would be the most tedious possible outcome; both sides left somewhat disappointed. Fingers crossed for a more interesting result (and a WiiU win would DEFINITELY be that!!!)
 
None of their tentpoles have crumbled except Fable. I think Halo 5's decline is pretty much commensurate with the overall lost strength of the Xbox brand. It's still a giant tentpole. And I expect Gears to be huge next year. Forza was never as big as the other three--bundles always helped it along--but it's still trucking. And strong enough now to be annual.

Hmmm, of course Halo is not dead or something.
But now saying: Halo is not selling well because the Xbox sells so weak is putting shoes on before the trousers.
Halo is there to sell consoles. Not the other way round.
And when I hear people now saying: No problem for Microsoft that Halo sells not as much as it used to, at least it makes them some money... well, I am not sure that the Xbox devision really shares this opinion (even if the twitter differently).

But maybe everyone and Pachter is right and we just should stop and shut up about exclusives. It's COD, Fallout and Star Wars that will decide the console sales this Q4. This and pricing/sales madness, but not Halo.
And definitely not Laura.
 
You mean Sep-14, right? That saw the launch of Destiny, so that month is very hard to use as data of cooling demand when comparing to September number this year. All we know for certain is that YTD the PS4 is up so far for '15 compared to this far in '14. Or at least I think it is, please correct me if I'm wrong.

Sales of Sony's PlayStation 4 U.S. Console Hardware in 2015 are down year-to-date (as of Sep-15) from 2014 by -7%.

Sep-14's 538K is simply one data point that conveys a comparable example around the same pre-holiday timeline to the $50 pricecut in Oct-15.

Because of the PS4's generally-diminished performance (on average), I believe it won't live up to such a threshold. That's why my prediction for this "U.S. Hardware Predictions" topic is 420K.
 

Kysen

Member
Sales of Sony's PlayStation 4 U.S. Console Hardware in 2015 are down year-to-date (as of Sep-15) from 2014 by -7%.

Sep-14's 538K is simply one data point that conveys a comparable example around the same pre-holiday timeline to the $50 pricecut in Oct-15.

Because of the PS4's generally-diminished performance (on average), I believe it won't live up to such a threshold. That's why my prediction for this "U.S. Hardware Predictions" topic is 420K.

Are you from the NPD group? because using their logo and your name tag might confuse some people.
 
I think it was close to 300k.
297K, but I was primarily referring to lackluster performance v. PS4 Sep-14's 538K with that comment.
Thanks.

Yeah, I think PS4 will be comfortably above that. 400K at least, in my opinion. The PS4's first price cut should provide a considerable boost over last October.

As far as September, I think it was just an outlier. It was a massive month and not stacking up to speaks more to how crazy that period was rather than a sign of the PS4 losing momentum. Well, that is how I see it anyway.
 

Death2494

Member
I agree that it will be very very close. I do think that XOne will edge it out by a narrow margin.
But even if that were to happen, it will be a bittersweet victory, because the entire year leading to this everybody was certain that XOne will handily and easily bag October.
I'm sorry a price cut just has a wider appeal compared to the FPS halo. But i watched some Halo 5 streams on my ps4 and i'll say, 343 nailed the MP. Looks like halo 1 with a sprint.
 
I'm sorry a price cut just has a wider appeal compared to the FPS halo.
Then MS should have done another price cut instead of releasing Halo.
It's a pity everyone starts talking about Halo nowerdays as if it's a small indie title.

Lousy 50 bucks off, not even undercutting the Xbox, just getting on par.
So after that we have 2 consoles, same price.
In the USA, the land of Halo.
One console of the two (same-priced ones) gets an exclusive, no, THE BIGGEST exclusive this holiday season.
And in the end it's roundabout a tie.
This is disappointing.
 

Welfare

Member
Pre season is definitely over. This thread has more posts than the past 2 NPD threads, and will pass July's by next week.

Interesting times.
 
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