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Aquamarine · Dec 9, 2013

Pachter Predictions for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:

November 2012:
450K prediction -> 425K reality
25K over-predicted (-5.55%)

December 2012:
675K prediction -> 463K reality
212K over-predicted (-31.41%)

January 2013:
125K prediction -> 57K reality
68K over-predicted (-54.40%)

February 2013:
80K prediction -> 66K reality
14K over-predicted (-17.50%)

March 2013:
55K prediction -> 68K reality
13K under-predicted (23.63%)

April 2013:
55K prediction -> 37K reality
18K over-predicted (-32.72%)

May 2013:
32K prediction -> 33K reality
1K under-predicted (3.13%)

June 2013:
38K prediction -> 42K reality
4K under-predicted (10.53%)

July 2013:
30K prediction -> 29K reality
1K over-predicted (-3.33%)

August 2013:
30K prediction -> 31K reality
1K under-predicted (3.33%)

September 2013:
55K prediction -> 95K reality
40K under-predicted (72.72%)

October 2013:
75K prediction -> 50K reality
25K over-predicted (-33.33%)

November 2013:
150K prediction

Steve Youngblood · Dec 9, 2013

antonz said:
Just for reference. Pachter estimated around 54k sales for the WiiU in September versus the 91-92K

Just for reference, Pachter predicted 125,000 for the month of January when the results were 57K.

Edit: This was covered by Aquamarine.

R0ckman · Dec 9, 2013

Azelover said:
What do you mean by "adapt"?

If they do the same thing the competition is doing they'll still fail. Heck, it IS doing too much of what the competition does which is at fault here, they need to get back in touch with their disruptive nature. They need to provide a job and be innovative in a way that is truly appealing;

Imagine Miiverse PLUS the features of the PS4 sharing or a miiverse stream site that is nintendo only, commentary via headphones. Legacy games included. All they have to do is tell parents to be fucking parents.

VanWinkle · Dec 9, 2013

Holy...I'm for one of the first times legitimately worried about this platform. New AAA 3D Mario couldn't at all save it and it did one of the worst Novembers in modern history if these numbers are accurate.

I really don't know what they're going to do.

Taker666 · Dec 9, 2013

Log4Girlz said:
Though I don't want anyone to fail, except Justin Beiber, I can't imagine ever getting the kind of console I want from Nintendo unless they just tank spectacularly, repeatedly.

*dreams of advanced console with enthusiastic third party support, a slew of western games AND Nintendo IP's*

Nintendo are never going to get strong 3rd party support on a home console unless they are willing to bankrupt themselves...

..and I'd say it's far more likely you'll see Nintendo going for something akin to the Ouya power wise if Wii U continues to sell badly..rather than the other direction.

The Lamp · Dec 9, 2013

WickedLaharl said:

I've seen this before but I still cannot stop laughing, nay, HOWLING

Sadist · Dec 9, 2013

So it's probably 135k. Sigh. And I like the system.

Guess they'll try again in a few years.

Log4Girlz · Dec 9, 2013

Steve Youngblood said:
Just for reference, Pachter predicted 125,000 for the month of January when the results wre 57K.

Edit: This was covered by Aquamarine.

There seems to be a greater reason to believe his estimate is an under-prediction due to the time of year and aggressiveness of price-cuts and bundling. But it would really boggle my mind if its 250k or below.

Imperfected · Dec 9, 2013

Opus Angelorum said:
Parody? Or Nintendo acolyte from the future?

90% of that was a word-for-word quote of an actual first post in a thread that I can only hope has been locked. The Steel Diver part is the only parody.

GremlinFool · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
Trust me, they won't drop it until the end of 2015 at the absolute earliest, and that's their worst case scenario. Don't worry, and enjoy your console

You continuously make sweeping, baseless statements based on a poor understanding of business practice and undying infatuation with Nintendo. I usually don't like to single out posters for these sorts of practices, but you are (deliberately or otherwise) misleading some users at this point. There's a very tangible and plausible chance that Nintendo ceases support of the Wii U before the end of 2015. I would like some evidence of your wild declarations so I don't have to bear witness to you deluding anyone else on the Wii U's prospects.

Jinfash · Dec 9, 2013

Aquamarine said:
Pachter Predictions for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:

November 2012:
450K prediction -> 425K reality
25K over-predicted

December 2012:
675K prediction -> 463K reality
212K over-predicted

January 2013:
125K prediction -> 57K reality
68K over-predicted

February 2013:
80K prediction -> 66K reality
14K over-predicted

March 2013:
55K prediction -> 68K reality
13K under-predicted

April 2013:
55K prediction -> 37K reality
18K over-predicted

May 2013:
32K prediction -> 33K reality
1K under-predicted

June 2013:
38K prediction -> 42K reality
4K under-predicted

July 2013:
30K prediction -> 29K reality
1K over-predicted

August 2013:
30K prediction -> 31K reality
1K under-predicted

September 2013:
55K prediction -> 95K reality
40K under-predicted

October 2013:
75K prediction -> 50K reality
25K over-predicted

November 2013:
150K prediction

If you have time, please put the margins in percentages instead of units for a better picture.

papercan55 · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
Now now, aesthetics aside, New Super Mario Bros U is, in my view (Nintendo gamer since '89), the best 2D Mario to have come. It's not a sloppy effort at all.

aesthetics aside?
are you joking? video games are a visual medium, and for me the artwork is crucial.
I've been playing mario for as long as you, since '86 and whilst mario u might still play flawlessly in terms of gameplay, my eyes feel like they are crying, crying from the knowledge that at nintendo they have all these amazing artists yet they thought they could get away with not one, two or even three mario games with disgusting art, but also a forth and this time in high definition just to make that horrible, boring art just that little bit clearer.

Mario u is sloppy at best, they have already perfected 2d mario gameplay, so when developing a new 2d mario game they should be spending a little more time on the artwork, and generating 'new' creative ideas.

Mauricio_Magus said:
aside of the lazy presentation, NSMBU is the best game of that series(and a really good plataformer), the Luigi DLC is even BETTER, so I don't get the hate.

The hate stems from exactly what you agreed about, lazy presentation. when making a 2d mario game, nintendo already has perfected the formula.
So we should be seeing more time spent on new gorgeous artwork, new creative ideas. I'm angry because i know that nintendo could do it, but they decided that for 4 games in a row they would keep using the same hideous artwork with hardly any new creative ideas. Just compare the wealth of ideas from the galaxy series
to the 'new' series, it's a piss poor effort and i hope that nintendo pays for being so lazy.

ab.aeterno · Dec 9, 2013

Steve Youngblood said:
Just for reference, Pachter predicted 125,000 for the month of January when the results wre 57K.

Edit: This was covered by Aquamarine.

I was about to say I thought he'd over-predicted last month but I want sue; Aquamarine's got the hard data.

Yes, he greatly under-estimated September. He also over-estimated many months. At best it tells us that he can be wildly inaccurate, which this may be. But it doesn't suddenly mean he's always too low, as was the implication.

Manmademan · Dec 9, 2013

Aquamarine said:
Pachter Predictions for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:

November 2012:
450K prediction -> 425K reality
25K over-predicted

December 2012:
675K prediction -> 463K reality
212K over-predicted

January 2013:
125K prediction -> 57K reality
68K over-predicted

February 2013:
80K prediction -> 66K reality
14K over-predicted

March 2013:
55K prediction -> 68K reality
13K under-predicted

April 2013:
55K prediction -> 37K reality
18K over-predicted

May 2013:
32K prediction -> 33K reality
1K under-predicted

June 2013:
38K prediction -> 42K reality
4K under-predicted

July 2013:
30K prediction -> 29K reality
1K over-predicted

August 2013:
30K prediction -> 31K reality
1K under-predicted

September 2013:
55K prediction -> 95K reality
40K under-predicted

October 2013:
75K prediction -> 50K reality
25K over-predicted

November 2013:
150K prediction

So..you're saying with the exception of December, in which he was wildly OVER (which is probably the only month that makes sense) Pachter has been very accurate with WiiU predictions, usually within 10-20K?

Bob White · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
Really though, other than the marketing issues, and the online account issues (which only really matter to people here and other online communities. Most people are not aware of, nor care, about the issue) with the Wii U, I see Iwata is a decent CEO in my view. I mean hell, he has a policy on not laying people off (obviously firing people if they're absolutely crap). A new CEO would likely come in with huge layoffs to try and reach the desired bottomline, and that would destroy moral of the workers who remain and the layoffs would likely be noticed in their output.

This "their biggest problem is marketing" thing just isn't true. Nintendo have so many glaring problems with how they operate in the industry. Articles popped this year saying how making HD games caught them off guard. I mean, how in the flying fuck does a company as big as Nintendo let that happen to them? In 2013?!

JoeM86 · Dec 9, 2013

GremlinFool said:
You continuously make sweeping, baseless statements based on a poor understanding of business practice and undying infatuation with Nintendo. I usually don't like to single out posters for these sorts of practices, but you are (deliberately or otherwise) misleading some users at this point. There's a very tangible and plausible chance that Nintendo ceases support of the Wii U before the end of 2015. I would like some evidence of your wild declarations so I don't have to bear witness to you deluding anyone else on the Wii U's prospects.

Because it would be seriously negligent of Nintendo to drop the Wii U in the next year. It would be the dumbest thing they have ever done.

It is not a sweeping, baseless statement, nor is it based on a poor understanding of business practice. It's quite the opposite, in fact.

Derrick01 · Dec 9, 2013

If this is anywhere close to being true Nintendo needs to pack it up and decide where they want to be in the future. Either a handheld only company or a third party, because it's over in the console business.

Asd202 · Dec 9, 2013

Nooooo my NPD prediction!! God damn it should have give it 200k like I wanted at first.

Salty

Hiltz · Dec 9, 2013

North America was really Wii U's only hope for the rest of the year, if it really sells 150k-250k then Nintendo needs to enter panic mode. People still exaggerating over Nintendo abandoning Wii U ? Nintendo isn't exiting out of the home console business. They can try exhausting their options before contemplating abandoning a console.

allan-bh · Dec 9, 2013

Pachter is only in 19th place on 2013 Neogaf predictions.

18 people here can guess better than his "estimates" for the year.

outunderthestars · Dec 9, 2013

GremlinFool said:
You continuously make sweeping, baseless statements based on a poor understanding of business practice and undying infatuation with Nintendo. I usually don't like to single out posters for these sorts of practices, but you are (deliberately or otherwise) misleading some users at this point. There's a very tangible and plausible chance that Nintendo ceases support of the Wii U before the end of 2015. I would like some evidence of your wild declarations so I don't have to bear witness to you deluding anyone else on the Wii U's prospects.

I agree in that there is no certainty when it comes to the future of the Wii U. It has clearly failed to catch on with the public, and I am not sure if Nintendo's leadership can continue to hold steady on its current course in the face of losses, missed projections, and stockholder discontent.

blackflag · Dec 9, 2013

Just give me X and Bayonetta 2 please. This is what I bought it for (Should have waited) and I don't care what happens after that.

Zinthar · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
In the west, sure. Though that doesn't suddenly fix things

Occasionally it does. See Apple in 1996 when they brought back Steve Jobs. Of course, getting a visionary who can completely turn your business around and turn a company nearly in bankruptcy into the most valuable in the world in 15 years is exceedingly rare...

Randolph Freelander · Dec 9, 2013

Taker666 said:
The thing is ...although Iwata is in charge of the worst selling console currently on the market...he's also in charge of the best selling console currently on the market.

If Nintendo are going to fire Iwata based on Wii U sales.. then Sony should fire Kaz based on Vita sales.

Iwata is in charge of a company that has produced two consoles, both of which are underselling their predecessors, one catastrophically so, which hampers future revenue potential and profitability. He is in charge of a company that has experienced 65% revenue reduction since FY2009, a stock price that is roughly 20% of what it was in 2007. He is in charge of a company with 2 consecutive years of operating losses and one that will miss sales targets for yet another fiscal year.

This gets people fired or, as is often the case in business, this "prompts" people to resign.

I'm sure Iwata is a likable person and I wish him all the success in the world. I have a feeling Iwata is going to be alright. I just don't think he'll be at Nintendo much longer.

R0ckman · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
Because it would be seriously negligent of Nintendo to drop the Wii U in the next year. It would be the dumbest thing they have ever done.

It is not a sweeping, baseless statement, nor is it based on a poor understanding of business practice. It's quite the opposite, in fact.

I'm not really involved with this, but you gave no evidence.

Amir0x · Dec 9, 2013

kinggroin said:
I have all the confidence in your ability to do so.

Oh snap

I mean it'd be hard for some folk to deal with, but there'd be pretty much no evidence more stark than a number even close to what Pachter is predicting. It would hardly even require a word from anyone; it would be the top tier apocalyptic scenario for Wii U, a true unprecedented low month (for a November) for a major console. I can't even think of a way to make it sound worse than it would be, short of it selling 0-148k units

Pociask · Dec 9, 2013

Log4Girlz said:
Though I don't want anyone to fail, except Justin Beiber, I can't imagine ever getting the kind of console I want from Nintendo unless they just tank spectacularly, repeatedly.

*dreams of advanced console with enthusiastic third party support, a slew of western games AND Nintendo IP's*

I also share that dream, but I think that repeated failure won't provide the means to that end. What Nintendo should have done was make a massive investment in their development pipeline 5 years or so ago, when they were swimming in Wii cash. They could have have also swooped in and bought several studios that were sunk by the cost of developing in HD.

Now, though, the competitive landscape has changed dramatically. Instead of a position of strength, Nintendo is incredibly weak. And their competitors are the hardened lot that survived the Great HD Purge. Nintendo's big bosses, risk averse as they are, are going to be even less likely to make the big investment they still need in order to compete with Sony and Microsoft.

I think we'll keep seeing Nintendo consoles, but I think it's an open question whether they will be anything more than Super Gameboy-esque players.

DrWong · Dec 9, 2013

allan-bh said:
Pachter is only in 19th place on 2013 Neogaf predictions.

18 people here can guess better than his "estimates" for the year.

Yeah, this is ridiculously fun.

Roshin · Dec 9, 2013

Troubleman1990 said:
Pokemon MMO will save the Wii U, however it would be stupid to use it on a console like this.

You don't just pull an MMOG out of your butt, though. They take a long time to develop and requires you to have figured out both the internets and user accounts...

Psycho_Mantis · Dec 9, 2013

Aquamarine said:
Pachter Predictions for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:

November 2012:
450K prediction -> 425K reality
25K over-predicted

December 2012:
675K prediction -> 463K reality
212K over-predicted

January 2013:
125K prediction -> 57K reality
68K over-predicted

February 2013:
80K prediction -> 66K reality
14K over-predicted

March 2013:
55K prediction -> 68K reality
13K under-predicted

April 2013:
55K prediction -> 37K reality
18K over-predicted

May 2013:
32K prediction -> 33K reality
1K under-predicted

June 2013:
38K prediction -> 42K reality
4K under-predicted

July 2013:
30K prediction -> 29K reality
1K over-predicted

August 2013:
30K prediction -> 31K reality
1K under-predicted

September 2013:
55K prediction -> 95K reality
40K under-predicted

October 2013:
75K prediction -> 50K reality
25K over-predicted

November 2013:
150K prediction

Thats a very accurate record he has there for WiiU.

SpokkX · Dec 9, 2013

VanWinkle said:
Holy...I'm for one of the first times legitimately worried about this platform. New AAA 3D Mario couldn't at all save it and it did one of the worst Novembers in modern history if these numbers are accurate.

I really don't know what they're going to do.

Yeah, if this turns out to be true for the first time I actually believe nintendos got dreamcast on their hands

I still believe that the name is a big problem, as is the price

My solution would be to 2ds it

Introducing "Wii 2"

1. Same hardware, just rebranded
2. Do not include gamepad. Gamepad should be optional in most games and be sold separately
3. Price it at the same level as ps3/360
4. Include 3d world or nsmbu as a pack in
5. Continue indie push, lots of 2d stuff
5. Market as new nintendo hd console, the specs are good enough and it can impress even when compared to the new gen (pikmin, 3d world)

Jinfash · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
Because it would be seriously negligent of Nintendo to drop the Wii U in the next year. It would be the dumbest thing they have ever done.

It is not a sweeping, baseless statement, nor is it based on a poor understanding of business practice. It's quite the opposite, in fact.

I hate to bring up heatwaves, but heatwaves. I mean, come on.

JoeM86 · Dec 9, 2013

R0ckman said:
I'm not really involved with this, but you gave no evidence.

Well it's more really based on this industry and how it works. For Nintendo to drop the Wii U, it would cause serious issues. It's not like Samsung with a TV where one of their models sucks so they just drop it and bring another one out, this would be dropping your only home console with nothing to replace it.

AstroNut325 · Dec 9, 2013

Aquamarine said:
Pachter Predictions for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:

SNIP

Wow... that's a pretty decent track record. +/- 25K! So we're potentially looking at sub 200K sales for Wii U in November 2013! WOW!

The_Endgamer · Dec 9, 2013

Well hopefully this just speeds up that discount we've all been waiting for.

Nintendo is seriously over valuing their console atm. They should have just copy + pasted the fix up they did for 3DS when it was failing.

Hurry up with that price drop Nintendo.

JoeM86 · Dec 9, 2013

Jinfash said:
I hate to bring up heatwaves, but heatwaves. I mean, come on.

One thing I provided as a possible reason that could have contributed, and yet people attribute that statement to me allegedly saying that it was the sole reason.

eojoko · Dec 9, 2013

Can we just wait for the real numbers to be released?

Mononoke · Dec 9, 2013

Derrick01 said:
If this is anywhere close to being true Nintendo needs to pack it up and decide where they want to be in the future. Either a handheld only company or a third party, because it's over in the console business.

I sadly agree. The Wii was a fluke, because it tapped into a new and booming market/demographic (casual gaming), and that market has entirely moved over to tablets/phones + social media games. It's not like their consoles prior to that were doing great either.

So if this is Nintendo getting back to normal (where Gamecube left off), and this is actually doing worse. Fuck.

Ninja Scooter · Dec 9, 2013

SpokkX said:
Yeah, if this turns out to be true for the first time I actually believe nintendos got dreamcast on their hands

I still believe that the name is a big problem, as is the price

My solution would be to 2ds it

Introducing "Wii 2"

1. Same hardware, just rebranded
2. Do not include gamepad. Gamepad should be optional in most games and be sold separately
3. Price it at the same level as ps3/360
4. Include 3d world or nsmbu as a pack in
5. Continue indie push, lots of 2d stuff
5. Market as new nintendo hd console, the specs are good enough and it can impress even when compared to the new gen (pikmin, 3d world)

What would this realistically accomplish? The WIi name is mud. And the market does not want to buy a console just to play Nintendo games. Even the Gamecube at $99 eventually died. And that was before things like cell phones and tablets taking up people's disposable income that might have previously gone towards a "secondary console". Doing that doesn't increase Nintendo's ceiling in the console market.

Manmademan · Dec 9, 2013

Pyscho_Mantis said:
Thats a very accurate record he has there for WiiU.

it's actually more accurate than it looks. The problem with WiiU is that no one thought the launch was as frontloaded as it was. December is WAY off because of this, and so is january...but recall that january had a horrific number of returns. without them january would have been closer to 100k or so.

outside of that, his predictions for the system have been pretty damn accurate.

Log4Girlz · Dec 9, 2013

Pociask said:
I also share that dream, but I think that repeated failure won't provide the means to that end. What Nintendo should have done was make a massive investment in their development pipeline 5 years or so ago, when they were swimming in Wii cash. They could have have also swooped in and bought several studios that were sunk by the cost of developing in HD.

Now, though, the competitive landscape has changed dramatically. Instead of a position of strength, Nintendo is incredibly weak. And their competitors are the hardened lot that survived the Great HD Purge. Nintendo's big bosses, risk averse as they are, are going to be even less likely to make the big investment they still need in order to compete with Sony and Microsoft.

I think we'll keep seeing Nintendo consoles, but I think it's an open question whether they will be anything more than Super Gameboy-esque players.

Should have yes, but considering what they did in the past...never would have happened:

Shikamaru Ninja said:
From 1990-2000. Nintendo of America had production and management autonomy from Japan. NOA basically culminated its own production team, along a few co-designers, and started funding and producing games with developers.

DMA Design: Uni Racers, Body Harvest (Nintendo dropped it in 1997, Midway took it)
Angel Studios: Ken Griffey Baseball, Buggie Boogie (canceled)
Bits Studios: Warlocked, Riqa (canceled)
Rare: Donkey Kong Country, Killer Instinct, Goldeneye 007, Perfect Dark
Software Creations: Ken Griffey Baseball, Tin Star
Silicon Knights: Eternal Darkness (N64 version)
Left Field Productions: Kobey Bryant in NBA Courtside, Excitebike 64
Looking Glass Studio: Mini Racers (canceled)
Mass Media: Star Craft 64
H20: Tetrisphere
Saffire Corp: Nester's Funky Bowling, James Bond 007
Midway: Cruisn Series

Nintendo of America also procured the Ken Griffey and MLBPA license, NHL License, Kobe Bryant and NBA license, PGA license, Disney license, James Bond license, StarCraft license. Star Wars Episode I license. They were producing their own first-party games separate from Nintendo of Japan.

That all changed when Iwata transitioned from Global Marketing Chief to President. NOA Production was killed, and Nintendo of Japan's SPD Department took over all Western development (Star Fox Adventures, Geist, Eternal Darkness GC).

Henry Sterchi, Brian Ullrich, Ken Lobb, Ed Ridgeway, Jeff Hutt, Faran Thomason, and the whole crew left NOA to Microsoft and other developers. Since then, we've seen the Western model we have today. Western developers reporting directly to Japanese management, and pretty much making B/C sequels to Nintendo IPs.

Btw, Body Harvest was a precursor to GTA, the studio eventually became Rockstar North

Jinfash · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
One thing I provided as a possible reason that could have contributed, and yet people attribute that statement to me allegedly saying that it was the sole reason.

It may have been one thing, but it was indicative of your far-reaching and overly-positive logic, which you still employ in favor of Nintendo.

GraveRobberX · Dec 9, 2013

eojoko said:
Can we just wait for the real numbers to be released?

Lets enjoy the banter we can right now, cause GAF will 504 the instant Niro or 'Lore posts that thread

Guru Meditations be damned, we pre-ejaculating yo'

GremlinFool · Dec 9, 2013

JoeM86 said:
Because it would be seriously negligent of Nintendo to drop the Wii U in the next year. It would be the dumbest thing they have ever done.

It is not a sweeping, baseless statement, nor is it based on a poor understanding of business practice. It's quite the opposite, in fact.

Please, humor me with the specifics of the cost-benefit analysis of the discounted cash flow consequences of not discontinuing the Wii U.

FalsettoVibe · Dec 9, 2013

Wow.....thats really bad if it turns out to be close to that

allan-bh · Dec 9, 2013

AstroNut325 said:
Wow... that's a pretty decent track record. +/- 25K! So we're potentially looking at sub 200K sales for Wii U in November 2013! WOW!

Not really.

His predictions are way off in months that Wii U sold better (except november 2012 but that's was easy to predict because of Nintendo press release).

AzaK · Dec 9, 2013

Log4Girlz said:
*dreams of advanced console with enthusiastic third party support, a slew of western games AND Nintendo IP's*

I'm visiting your dreams, baby.

Log4Girlz · Dec 9, 2013

Nintendo is the Disney of the east, without the foresight and business acumen.

bequietdrive · Dec 9, 2013

Hmm, I think it'll surpass that figure but not be too much. It'll be interesting to see if the Wii U can do over 400k this christmas in America..

rjinaz · Dec 9, 2013

Dr. Zoidberg said:
EDIT - Reading through, there's obviously a contingent of people on GAF that are very gleeful about this state of affairs and some even seem downright angry at Nintendo. I can't imagine anyone from the MS/Sony/PC fanboy camp feels remotely threatened by the Wii U so I am curious as to the psychological motivation for some of that is, aside from the hope of 3rd part ports to their platform of choice.

It's the " I don't like it so I hope it fails miserably" mentality. Some people tend to hate things they don't personally like, and many simply are not interested in Nintendo.

I have never understood this mentality. If I don't like something, I try to be indifferent, why oppose it because others like it and I don't? Seems close-minded.

Anyway, I do think it is time to be realistic about the Wii U failing but I'm certainly not happy about it.

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