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[Malakai]

Those slides are trying to offer some future guidance coming out of the huge declines from prior gen. It's a forward looking document, and is basically saying that the consumer spend the market enjoyed during the Wii era has left the dedicated console market.

These slides are actually communicating what you are wishing it did, it's just doing so in a different way. Instead of saying "the Wii was huge and it declined and now the market is down and those people left" it's saying "removing the Wii, we see that the other platforms are stable/have grown". The end result is the same thing. "The Wii was this powerhouse console that provided a ton of consumer spend that is gone now. So, pubs & devs, what should you focus on now?"



You're looking for long-term trends, and trying to parse whatever you can from the data available. The inclusion of the Wii data into these trends makes the data less useful. No one is discounting the Wii. It was just so successful that it doesn't align with any other set of data points. And, when analyzing real data, sometimes things aren't perfect. You have to take what you have, mold it as well as you can, note that the sample size is small, ensure that you communicate that the range of error on whatever findings are made is higher because of it, but you still need to come up with ideas of what has happened and why and what should be done about it. As an analyst, that's your job. You don't need to fight for the honor of the Nintendo Wii, there's not one person working in the videogame industry that is unaware of its importance.



You are completely, utterly, fantastically, amazingly missing the point of the data presented.

That would be great and all, however, when looking though most of the slides when dealing with dedicated gaming systems they actually include both the Wii U and 3DS figures in several of the revenue slides and software releases slides for "gen 8" slides. And in all honesty, I still wouldn't infer anything from just long term sales data with out looking at macro-factors. When publishers flooded the music market with crap ton of guitar hero and rock star games middle of generation 7, what set in? People got tired of it keeping up with all of the releases and stopped buying it.

 

[Insane Metal]

Microsoft generally seem to like advertising their products more than improving them.

This doesn't apply to XBox One though... I mean... they improved it A LOT before launch.

Also, very interesting data. The total spent in advertisement is really interesting.

 

[CosmicQueso]

When publishers flooded the music market with crap ton of guitar hero and rock star games middle of generation 7, what set in? People got tired of it keeping up with all of the releases and stopped buying it.

Well sure. The band game market got oversaturated and collapsed. Not sure what that has to do with the Wii and the ideas presented?

 

[Malakai]

Well sure. The band game market got oversaturated and collapsed. Not sure what that has to do with the Wii and the ideas presented?

Look at the slide where you have "casual" and "core" sales. It is under the Wii bubble slide. The point is not to only to look at the sales data but look the situations outside of the sales data.

Edit:

 

[Brad Grenz]

EEDAR shouldn't go to Ars Technica for their Xbox One sales estimates....

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

It is kinda funny that Nintendo, actually, have more systems that sold more than 100 million than Sony. The GB/GBC, DS and the Wii vs PS1 and PS2 for Sony.

This is about consoles, not handhelds. Get off it already dude.

Yes Nintendo's handhelds have traditionally done very well (and even though it's seen a very big drop vs. its predecessor, 3DS could have fared much worst), but I think people bringing up the console sales are doing so b/c they're worried about what this will mean for their future. Nintendo can't survive off of handheld sales alone. This is obvious. That's why looking at console sales is important and Wii was an outlier in their decade + trend.

I am personally hoping NX begins to reverse it in a way that doesn't come off like a fluke, because it's already bad enough Sega is gone and I wouldn't want to see Nintendo fold out of the hardware market either, but continued downward trends in console sales will diminish their relevance and brand power, and create even more of a snowball effect down the mountain.

 

[Malakai]

This is about consoles, not handhelds. Get off it already dude.

Yes Nintendo's handhelds have traditionally done very well (and even though it's seen a very big drop vs. its predecessor, 3DS could have fared much worst), but I think people bringing up the console sales are doing so b/c they're worried about what this will mean for their future. Nintendo can't survive off of handheld sales alone. This is obvious. That's why looking at console sales is important and Wii was an outlier in their decade + trend.

I am personally hoping NX begins to reverse it in a way that doesn't come off like a fluke, because it's already bad enough Sega is gone and I wouldn't want to see Nintendo fold out of the hardware market either, but continued downward trends in console sales will diminish their relevance and brand power, and create even more of a snowball effect down the mountain.

Handhelds are consoles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_console

 

[Lime]

Not sure about the source for this but yikes

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/720023003220848640

 

[stryke]

Not sure about the source for this but yikes

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/720023003220848640

It's not hard to find numbers for Nintendo, it's on their website.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Handhelds are consoles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_console

For the purpose of this data, they are specifically referred to as handhelds. You're arguing semantics here.

The audience buying Wii Games (like dance games/genral entertainment) is gone. They have not moved on to the new generation of consoles.

I wouldn't say all of them abandoned consoles. What's to say a casual can't become a core gamer? Or a core gamer can't become a casual one?

If just arguing absolutes then maybe that statement holds true when accounting for all variations, but I don't buy this idea that people stay one type of gamer for even a small span of time, let alone their whole life.

 

[Nikodemos]

Not sure about the source for this but yikes

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/720023003220848640

It's compiled from official LTD sales numbers IIRC. It simply shows that, barring the black swan that was the Wii, Nintendo's home console sales have been inexorably going down gen-to-gen. Which is why some analysts are using two sets of trans-generational charts, one with Nintendo, one without. The Wii severely distorted last gen.

 

[Mr. Giggles]

Go Vita!

Good first post!

I'm sure the vita will catch up.... It means life afterall

 

[Nikodemos]

Good first post!

I'm sure the vita will catch up.... It means life afterall

After-life, more like.

Spoiler

huehuehuehue

 

[Khalifa Jayy]

Wii U in the same ballpark as the Vita is fucking gross. the latter should have never crossed 5 mill

What is wrong with you?

 

[Malakai]

Well sure. The band game market got oversaturated and collapsed. Not sure what that has to do with the Wii and the ideas presented?

Here is my beef. Why is it that the above figures are including the Wii U sales but aren't including the Wii sales? Wouldn't one NOT include the Wii U sales to get an reasonable reference in the case of "8th Generation" software sales growth.

 

[nitekrawlwer]

Right back at you, Ab!



We had just over 200 packaged releases hit the US market last year, just slightly down versus the year prior.

We had over 900 packaged releases in 2009.

One could argue that variety in the retail console industry is already dead to a great extent, particularly when comparing to the peak period (when release count was indeed driven by the Nintendo Wii and NDS).

Are you finding enough variety in what remains to continue being interested in purchasing consoles and games at retail?

How low can that release count number go before people lose interest? 175? 150?

If the NX can really hit (and if it uses physical software) maybe we can see that variety start to return.

If it doesn't, I don't know what will. That's the scary part of the current market environment, imo.



Take a step back for a moment and ask yourself whether an organization like EEDAR, one that provides professional analytic services for most of the major publishers in the industry, has "favorites" in the console space. That they would then take that biased information to a major corporation, full of smart people that have been working in the games industry, in some cases, since before the PS1, present that biased information, in order to push those "favorites"? And, by extent, do you also believe that these people at publishers and developers that utilize this information, would not be able to see any inherent bias? That they would all just fall for a "narrative" over EEDAR's consoles of choice? And that then these major corporations would make investment and business decisions not realizing that the whole time they'd been brainwashed?

Do you honestly believe, truly, that this is how the industry works?

Don't have to think about it again. Businesses are composed of biased people. Being smart does not mean you're unbiased. Yes this kind of thing happens regularly. Smart people and dumb ones alike love feeding into information that confirms their world view. This isn't a new phenomena and to pretend businesses are immune strikes me as silly This article contains some good examples. Looking at the chart where they do include the Wii makes it look like the game industry is crashing. That means fewer people who would need what EEDAR provides. I think they have great incentives to build a more positive narrative than reality. People working in the industry who like it as is have plenty of incentive to believe it will be doing better going forward.

 

[jroc74]

I don't buy that argument for Nintendo home consoles. NES sold 62 million when the market was much smaller. The difference between it and it's competitors at the time looks quite similar to what we see in every gen there is a drastic market leader.

Now all of last gen was an outlier? Then why compare to only 2/3 outliers if they are all outliers?



I'm well aware of the words meaning. The Wii isn't even the best selling console. It's certainly not abnormally high. Are ps2 and ps1 outliers now too?

EEDAR and their disingenuous comparison are who you should be accusing of console warrior behavior to make their favorites look good. I'm not the one ignoring sales when they suit my narrative.



See my response to the first quote. I don't think it's an outlier for Nintendo home consoles. NES dominated the market similar to the way PS1 and PS2 did. The market was simply much smaller at the time.

The reference is to the past picture of the market. There is no reason beyond making this gen appear to be doing better to take away a slice of the market.

I apologize for the late response. Some newly acquired real life responsibilities prevented me from responding earlier.

Well as you can see some folks posted Nintendo home console sales from NES to now. Yea the market was smaller when the NES came out...and with each gen it grew and yet Nintendo home console sales steadily declined. Expect when the Wii came out. Now with the Wii U its back to the normal decline for Nintendo home console sales. I try to use the NES in hypotheticals because before the Wii that was the last Nintendo home console that sold the most. If the Wii had continued on the Nintendo home console sales trend....we wouldnt be having this discussion. If the Wii U had picked up where the Wii left off...we wouldnt be having this discussion.

The Wii bucked that trend...and as of right now its going back to normal for Nintendo home console sales.

I agree that every gen had a definite market leader. And before last gen you could really only look at 1 n 2 and basically discount 3rd place. Whether it was Sega, Nintendo or MS.

Last gen we had:
3 consoles sell over 80, 85 million.
All 3 separated by about 15 million total.
Only 3 home consoles on the market.
A Nintendo home console for the first time ever sells over 100 million.
The 2nd time a gen has been that long.

Thats a few reasons why I say last gen as a whole was an outlier.

 

[mhi]

So the Wii is now considered to have been a bubble ? Damn lol

 

[CosmicQueso]

Here is my beef. Why is it that the above figures are including the Wii U sales but aren't including the Wii sales? Wouldn't one NOT include the Wii U sales to get an reasonable reference in the case of "8th Generation" software sales growth.

Definitely a valid criticism given the context. I'm with you there.

Looking at the chart where they do include the Wii makes it look like the game industry is crashing. That means fewer people who would need what EEDAR provides. I think they have great incentives to build a more positive narrative than reality. People working in the industry who like it as is have plenty of incentive to believe it will be doing better going forward.

Well this is a much more valid and reasonable criticism. Why didn't you just start here?

Hah. I won't argue with the motivations you lay out about any of the parties. Absolutely, if you're in the business of selling console video games you want to know where the opportunities and potential to keep doing that (and your job) might be.

But what alternative would you suggest? That people in that business, who are charged to deliver profitable games to the console market, instead don't?

However, it is debatable that the picture presented is more positive than reality, unless you believe the console market to ultimately demise in the near future, or that this is the last generation of consoles as we know them (they very well might be, tough to say).

Accusing EEDAR of incompetence or shoddy analysis is one thing, saying that they have a platform bias or are pushing one favorite console as a narrative is another. The first is certainly possible (games industry analysis is the most challenging of any good sold in a mass retailer), the second is quite unrealistic.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Looking at the chart where they do include the Wii makes it look like the game industry is crashing. That means fewer people who would need what EEDAR provides.

This is the exact opposite of the case. When everything's roses who cares what numbers some egghead is spouting? In my experience management resorts to mathematics only when a rival is eating their lunch, or when they need to eke out a basis point improvement on a mature process to keep the metrics black.

EEDAR, if anything, would prefer that the data be complicated, inscrutable, and dangerous. That way their analytical services are desperately needed to tease out the signal in that noise.

 

[joecanada]

I don't buy that argument for Nintendo home consoles. NES sold 62 million when the market was much smaller. The difference between it and it's competitors at the time looks quite similar to what we see in every gen there is a drastic market leader.

Now all of last gen was an outlier? Then why compare to only 2/3 outliers if they are all outliers?



I'm well aware of the words meaning. The Wii isn't even the best selling console. It's certainly not abnormally high. Are ps2 and ps1 outliers now too?

EEDAR and their disingenuous comparison are who you should be accusing of console warrior behavior to make their favorites look good. I'm not the one ignoring sales when they suit my narrative.



See my response to the first quote. I don't think it's an outlier for Nintendo home consoles. NES dominated the market similar to the way PS1 and PS2 did. The market was simply much smaller at the time.

The reference is to the past picture of the market. There is no reason beyond making this gen appear to be doing better to take away a slice of the market.

I apologize for the late response. Some newly acquired real life responsibilities prevented me from responding earlier.

There's no perfect way to look at data. But I could just as easily argue that nes only sold 62 million when they had very little competition for a stretch. Noone has discounted nes in any respect because it still shows steady decline even with nes. So even if you said okay the market was smaller nes is equivalent to 100 million, then that shows even more drastic decline with a spike at Wii.
Saying PS1 and PS2 is an outlier is not in any way accurate... That is literally ignoring that PS3 almost made 100 million and PS4 is on pace for almost 100, depending on length of gen but let's say 15+ million sales per year is impressive. The dip for ps3 is notable but hardly drastic

So if you graphed sales per year this would show who is pushing steady sales and who is on a bumpy road..... Of course profit is what really matters but it's harder to sell tons of software with few systems.

 

[casiopao]

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2014/07/09/ps4-ps3-vita-100-million-sold-and-counting

Wait wait wait. Isnt that just assumption there. I mean, sony don't even provide us the official number here.

 

[nitekrawlwer]

Definitely a valid criticism given the context. I'm with you there.

Well this is a much more valid and reasonable criticism. Why didn't you just start here?

Hah. I won't argue with the motivations you lay out about any of the parties. Absolutely, if you're in the business of selling console video games you want to know where the opportunities and potential to keep doing that (and your job) might be.

But what alternative would you suggest? That people in that business, who are charged to deliver profitable games to the console market, instead don't?

However, it is debatable that the picture presented is more positive than reality, unless you believe the console market to ultimately demise in the near future, or that this is the last generation of consoles as we know them (they very well might be, tough to say).

Accusing EEDAR of incompetence or shoddy analysis is one thing, saying that they have a platform bias or are pushing one favorite console as a narrative is another. The first is certainly possible (games industry analysis is the most challenging of any good sold in a mass retailer), the second is quite unrealistic.

I would suggest they diversify and flee. Or address wider audiences and bring down costs. Both of which they won't.

I believe the numbers make that pretty clear. It's hardly sustainable for anybody who is competing now and no one new can join the fray on current terms except a handful of huge conglomerates with little incentive to do so.

I think it's specifically tailored to the biases of the people who will consume it. When viewed from those frames makes perfect sense. The numbers line up too closely with other estimates for me to say this incarnation of similar numbers is shoddy. The analysis isn't shoddy if you accept the premise. Of course I don't but it's clear my opinion is something of an outlier.

Well as you can see some folks posted Nintendo home console sales from NES to now. Yea the market was smaller when the NES came out...and with each gen it grew and yet Nintendo home console sales steadily declined. Expect when the Wii came out. Now with the Wii U its back to the normal decline for Nintendo home console sales. I try to use the NES in hypotheticals because before the Wii that was the last Nintendo home console that sold the most. If the Wii had continued on the Nintendo home console sales trend....we wouldnt be having this discussion. If the Wii U had picked up where the Wii left off...we wouldnt be having this discussion.

The Wii bucked that trend...and as of right now its going back to normal for Nintendo home console sales.

I agree that every gen had a definite market leader. And before last gen you could really only look at 1 n 2 and basically discount 3rd place. Whether it was Sega, Nintendo or MS.

Last gen we had:
3 consoles sell over 80, 85 million.
All 3 separated by about 15 million total.
Only 3 home consoles on the market.
A Nintendo home console for the first time ever sells over 100 million.
The 2nd time a gen has been that long.

Thats a few reasons why I say last gen as a whole was an outlier.

I see 2 data points out 6 being discounted as outliers and I would like more before making that determination myself. Shame we will probably only ever get one more.

Xbox and game cube were less than 3 million apart. Why discount one similar market only to include another so similar in size? I don't think that makes a better picture but a less complete one.

Gen 7 grew approx 50-60 million over gen 6. Gen 6 grew approx 50-60 million over gen 5. Gen 5 grew approx 50 million over gen 4. I think we just saw the last generation of growth with 7. I don't think that makes it an outlier. We've seen that kinda growth too regularly.

This is the exact opposite of the case. When everything's roses who cares what numbers some egghead is spouting? In my experience management resorts to mathematics only when a rival is eating their lunch, or when they need to eke out a basis point improvement on a mature process to keep the metrics black.

EEDAR, if anything, would prefer that the data be complicated, inscrutable, and dangerous. That way their analytical services are desperately needed to tease out the signal in that noise.

I would argue that your experience isn't the best way to run a company. Data should be used to make informed decisions as often as it is available and cost isn't prohibitive.

If the market is percieved as gone so then so is the segment of that market that needs their data.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I would argue that your experience isn't the best way to run a company. Data should be used to make informed decisions as often as it is available and cost isn't prohibitive.

I wasn't making a recommendation, I was telling you how things typically are. The reality doesn't support your narrative.

If the market is percieved as gone so then so is the segment of that market that needs their data.

This doesn't make sense. EEDAR could be constantly screaming that the market is dead (or literally anything else), and this would have zero effect on the existence of companies in the market. Revenue and profit determine that.

In a world where the video game market does exist, then in the long run the most desirable analysis will be the most true. Any more than manufacturers, analysts don't survive by producing subpar product...no matter how comforting it may be.

 

[nitekrawlwer]

I wasn't making a recommendation, I was telling you how things typically are. The reality doesn't support your narrative.


This doesn't make sense. EEDAR could be constantly screaming that the market is dead (or literally anything else), and this would have zero effect on the existence of companies in the market. Revenue and profit determine that.

In a world where the video game market does exist, then in the long run the most desirable analysis will be the most true. Any more than manufacturers, analysts don't survive by producing subpar product...no matter how comforting it may be.

I can tell you the way things typically are doesn't even mean its good let alone best or ideal.

Software sales have been down in NPD consistently. They can only raise average revenue per user so high. The pool of users is only so big and it's certainly not approaching the size of yesteryear. You're right that revenue and profit will determine that. Im just watching where they get those things from shrink.

Just because a market exists doesn't make the most desirable analysis of said market true let alone the most true.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Software sales have been down in NPD consistently. They can only raise average revenue per user so high. The pool of users is only so big and it's certainly not approaching the size of yesteryear.

Well, to be fair, NPD software revenues were up in 2015 versus 2014...first time that's happened in a while.

Additionally between 2009-15 packaged software revenues correlated to packaged release count at an r-squared of .95. And last year was also the first time since 2009 that there was not a double digit % decline in release count.

Evidence exists that the decline in NPD reported software revenues may be due to a significant and corresponding decline in release count driven by higher production costs, alternative development dollar investment areas like mobile, and lower tolerance for risk at major publishers.

Don't mistake the symptom for the disease.

 

[Conduit]

Isn't 20 mil. for Xbone overestimate as of December 2015? Shipped probably. Sold-through unlikely. How many Xbones were sold in US through entire 2015? Under 5 mil.?

 

[nitekrawlwer]

Well, to be fair, NPD software revenues were up in 2015 versus 2014...first time that's happened in a while.

Additionally between 2009-15 packaged software revenues correlated to packaged release count at an r-squared of .95. And last year was also the first time since 2009 that there was not a double digit % decline in release count.

Evidence exists that the decline in NPD reported software revenues may be due to a significant and corresponding decline in release count driven by higher production costs, alternative development dollar investment areas like mobile, and lower tolerance for risk at major publishers.

Don't mistake the symptom for the disease.

I've criticized the expensive and unsustainable cost of products many a time before. In this thread even. I'm certainly aware of that issue as well.

It is a combination of that and lowered software revenue(US to an extent and Japan majorly), lower software variety on store shelves(even more important in developing nations), focus on expensive add ons and upgrades, paid online(another one depressing appeal in developing countries) that lead to this negative view of the market. They have literally cut the consoles ability to grow out from under it in the capacity of earlier systems by focusing on retaining more revenue per user.

It's not a single failing or criticism that would lead me to be this negative. They are legion.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Isn't 20 mil. for Xbone overestimate as of December 2015? Shipped probably. Sold-through unlikely. How many Xbones were sold in US through entire 2015? Under 5 mil.?

4.94 million. I agree that 20m For XBO looks insanity too much if we talk about sales.

Bte 3DS numbers are way undertracked, as well is possible and likely XBO is over.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I can tell you the way things typically are doesn't even mean its good let alone best or ideal.

And no one ever claimed otherwise. All I'm telling you is that your idea that EEDAR is purposefully misleading their clients is based on a misunderstanding of how analysts work.

Just because a market exists doesn't make the most desirable analysis of said market true let alone the most true.

I believe the conversation would be best served if you'd read more carefully. You've completely misconstrued what I said here (in addition to often talking past CosmicQueso when he's dropping factual science on you). My argument is actually that an analyst who intentionally lies to clients will soon lose all business. The best way to keep clients is to be the most accurate.

Hence, your idea that EEDAR is purposefully misleading is not only not well supported, it verges on the paranoia of a conspiracy theory.

 

[Darius]

4.94 million. I agree that 20m For XBO looks insanity too much if we talk about sales.

Bte 3DS numbers are way undertracked, as well is possible and likely XBO is over.

3DS completely undertracked, no comparison with last gen handhelds (150m DS) and arbitrary comparisons that exclude Wii sales, make it quite clear that they actually want to push a narrative.

Like nitekrawlwer said, the main reason publishers aren´t in a bad position is that due to add-on content and similar shemes they managed to rise per-consumer revenue, with mostly low investment/high profit margins "dlc". While there has been a clear and undeniable overall decline in the market as a whole.

 

[CosmicQueso]

For those of you that believe that the console market is unviable, what do you see emerging in its stead? To people no longer play games on their televisions? Do they hook up PCs? What happens to that play pattern next?

3DS completely undertracked, no comparison with last gen handhelds (150m DS) and arbitrary comparisons that exclude Wii sales, make it quite clear that they actually want to push a narrative.

Like nitekrawlwer said, the main reason publishers aren´t in a bad position is that due to add-on content and similar shemes they managed to rise per-consumer revenue, with mostly low investment/high profit margins "dlc". While there has been a clear and undeniable overall decline in the market as a whole.

And you don't think that the intended market for this deck (remember, it wasn't mean to go the general public) isn't aware that the console and dedicated handheld markets have seen huge declines from the peak period in the late 2000's?

Of course they all know the market has declined significantly.

That's not what is important for people making and selling games to know right now. What is important is to try and identify opportunity areas for the future, knowing that these are fewer and perhaps smaller than they used to be.

This isn't some grand conspiracy to fool the public.

(By the way, even Nintendo's consumer sales estimates are estimates. Given the nature of global POS tracking, it is impossible to have a 100% accurate read. All global consumer sales figures in the games space are estimated, and what we are seeing here are two different estimation levels of the % of hardware shipments sold through.)

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Don't have to think about it again. Businesses are composed of biased people. Being smart does not mean you're unbiased. Yes this kind of thing happens regularly. Smart people and dumb ones alike love feeding into information that confirms their world view. This isn't a new phenomena and to pretend businesses are immune strikes me as silly This article contains some good examples. Looking at the chart where they do include the Wii makes it look like the game industry is crashing. That means fewer people who would need what EEDAR provides. I think they have great incentives to build a more positive narrative than reality. People working in the industry who like it as is have plenty of incentive to believe it will be doing better going forward.

The game industry isn't crashing; Nintendo just fucked up that badly.

PS4 is doing phenomenally. XBO is doing pretty well. It's just Nintendo who's in a seriously bad bind. Yet to some people Nintendo == Global Video Game Industry so if they're not doing so hot w/ their home consoles then everyone's doing poorly.

Pretty faulty logic.

4.94 million. I agree that 20m For XBO looks insanity too much if we talk about sales.

Bte 3DS numbers are way undertracked, as well is possible and likely XBO is over.

XBO's numbers for the time period don't seem all that questionable to me. It may do marginal sales in many countries outside of US and UK but those sales still add up.

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Wait wait wait. Isnt that just assumption there. I mean, sony don't even provide us the official number here.

Sony provided the 100M in the video as well as the 80M of the PS3 and the 7M of the PS4. It's more a deduction then an assumption.

 

[Celine]

The Wii severely distorted last gen.

Every system distorted last gen.
You had for the first time ever the also run handheld that sold like it was a mainstream device at around 75-80 million units.
The number one handheld selling twice that and becoming the fastest selling videogame system ever.
The Wii sold more than 100 million units yet the consoles which follow it both shipped around 85 million units.
There is a good chance last gen will be remembered as the peak of the dedicated console industry.

 

[Welfare]

Every system distorted last gen.
You had the number two handheld finally selling like it was a mainstream device for the first time at around 75-80 million units.
The number one handheld selling twice that and becoming the fastest selling videogame system ever.
The Wii sold more than 100 million units yet the consoles which follow it both shipped around 85 million units.
There is a good chance last gen will be remembered as the peak of the dedicated console industry.

All 5 devices last gen passed 80 million units. That'll never happen again.

 

[Celine]

We had just over 200 packaged releases hit the US market last year, just slightly down versus the year prior.

We had over 900 packaged releases in 2009.

One could argue that variety in the retail console industry is already dead to a great extent, particularly when comparing to the peak period (when release count was indeed driven by the Nintendo Wii and NDS).

Are you finding enough variety in what remains to continue being interested in purchasing consoles and games at retail?

How low can that release count number go before people lose interest? 175? 150?

If the NX can really hit (and if it uses physical software) maybe we can see that variety start to return.

If it doesn't, I don't know what will. That's the scary part of the current market environment, imo.

200? That's more than I thought

As for me variety isn't an issue cause I just don't have the time to dedicate to dozens of new games.
Sure since I have a soft spot for 90s gaming I would like more arcade games but I'm also served by the huge backcatalogue built up during decades.

The risk is indeed that people start to be uninterested to play on dedicated consoles and are served well enough by playing games on general purpose devices like PC or Mobiles.

I don't think NX can save physical software, it's probably going down like music which transitioned over time from hard medium to digital.
I'm curious to see what business model Nintendo is going to use with NX though.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Just read through the thread.

.....

 

[jroc74]

The game industry isn't crashing; Nintendo just fucked up that badly.

PS4 is doing phenomenally. XBO is doing pretty well. It's just Nintendo who's in a seriously bad bind. Yet to some people Nintendo == Global Video Game Industry so if they're not doing so hot w/ their home consoles then everyone's doing poorly.

Pretty faulty logic.

XBO's numbers for the time period don't seem all that questionable to me. It may do marginal sales in many countries outside of US and UK but those sales still add up.

Pretty much this...

Now if the PS4 and XBO were selling like the Wii U..I could understand the concern about the industry crashing.

Every system distorted last gen.
You had for the first time ever the also run handheld that sold like it was a mainstream device at around 75-80 million units.
The number one handheld selling twice that and becoming the fastest selling videogame system ever.
The Wii sold more than 100 million units yet the consoles which follow it both shipped around 85 million units.
There is a good chance last gen will be remembered as the peak of the dedicated console industry.

All 5 devices last gen passed 80 million units. That'll never happen again.

Yup, which I why I say last gen as a whole was an outlier, anomaly, whatever you wanna call it..

 

[nitekrawlwer]

And no one ever claimed otherwise. All I'm telling you is that your idea that EEDAR is purposefully misleading their clients is based on a misunderstanding of how analysts work.


I believe the conversation would be best served if you'd read more carefully. You've completely misconstrued what I said here (in addition to often talking past CosmicQueso when he's dropping factual science on you). My argument is actually that an analyst who intentionally lies to clients will soon lose all business. The best way to keep clients is to be the most accurate.

Hence, your idea that EEDAR is purposefully misleading is not only not well supported, it verges on the paranoia of a conspiracy theory.

Then what did you mean by this:

This is the exact opposite of the case. When everything's roses who cares what numbers some egghead is spouting? In my experience management resorts to mathematics only when a rival is eating their lunch, or when they need to eke out a basis point improvement on a mature process to keep the metrics black.

Despite many companies proudly wearing the data driven mantra(without feeling threatened in the market) you said the case is the opposite. Then you offered nothing but your anecdotal experience as evidence of this being the only case. In my reading that certainly implies otherwise. It might even qualify as having claimed otherwise. Or..is this too me misconstruing your words? The this you referred to in the beginning of the quote was using data to make decisions was it not?

I get your point. It's not that I haven't read carefully enough or enough times. I just happen to think think it's a platitude and disagree. In an ideal hyper rational world the best way to keep clients for analysts would be being the most accurate sure. This is not that reality and thus that isn't always the case.

You can see many studies which suggest a very similar behavior to that which I'm suggesting exists on display here. Here is one excerpt:

When optimistic forecasts can improve access to management, rational analysts have incentives to issue optimistically-biased forecasts (Lim, 2001). This paper proposes that the extent of this optimistic forecast bias will depend on the forecast's importance to management. If management attaches less importance to a forecasted measure, analysts should decrease their forecast bias because the expected benefits of issuing optimistic forecasts are less. We examine analysts' earnings and sales forecasts, and predict that analysts' optimistic bias will be greater for earnings than for sales. Results are consistent with our predictions and contribute to the evidence that analysts' forecast bias is rational and intentional.

Publishers are of course not management at EEDAR. Do EEDAR'S management have reasons to keep those buyers of the data happy. Yes they do.

 

[Caddle]

Disappointing in what way? Sony's first party really brought it last gen, while lacklustre probably isn't a strong enough word to describe MS's (in the last couple years). PS3 deserved to catch up.

The ps3 catching up after the war was over, and ton of money losses.

 

[Malakai]

The game industry isn't crashing; Nintendo just fucked up that badly.

PS4 is doing phenomenally. XBO is doing pretty well. It's just Nintendo who's in a seriously bad bind. Yet to some people Nintendo == Global Video Game Industry so if they're not doing so hot w/ their home consoles then everyone's doing poorly.

Pretty faulty logic.

XBO's numbers for the time period don't seem all that questionable to me. It may do marginal sales in many countries outside of US and UK but those sales still add up.

If that is the case then, can EEDAR just freaking remove all of Nintendo figures from all dealing with revenues and total software sales.

 

[Timurse]

Xbox One may be a little bit on a slow down in the USA or in the UK but here in Russia it's basically dead.

I don't know in which thread it would be more appropriate to post this but here in Russia we got pretty amusing situation today. EA Russia decided NOT TO SELL Mirror's Edge Catalyst for Xbox One (retail disc version) at all.

There's rumor circulating among retailers that EA is gonna support disc versions for Xbox One for only the biggest titles like Battlefield or FIFA in Russia but pull the plug on all the other upcoming games for Xbox One. That basically means that there are almost no sales of Xbox One games here in Russia. Though I asked some retailers and they say that big games like GTA5, Destiny, COD or FIFA are still selling for Xbox One though in 1:50 to PS4 or even lower ratio

 

[Conduit]

Xbox One may be a little bit on a slow down in the USA or in the UK but here in Russia it's basically dead.

I don't know in which thread it would be more appropriate to post this but here in Russia we got pretty amusing situation today. EA Russia decided NOT TO SELL Mirror's Edge Catalyst for Xbox One (retail disc version) at all.

There's rumor circulating among retailers that EA is gonna support disc versions for Xbox One for only the biggest titles like Battlefield or FIFA in Russia but pull the plug on all the other upcoming games for Xbox One. That basically means that there are almost no sales of Xbox One games here in Russia. Though I asked some retailers and they say that big games like GTA5, Destiny, COD or FIFA are still selling for Xbox One though in 1:50 to PS4 or even lower ratio

Make a new thread then.

 

[Timurse]

Make a new thread then.

A few years here and I'm still Junior Member though I've been making lots of threads via help of other members.

 

[CosmicQueso]

If that is the case then, can EEDAR just freaking remove all of Nintendo figures from all dealing with revenues and total software sales.

Since the Wii U and 3DS markete are so relatively small, in decline, and dominated by first party, it wouldn't matter if they did.

In fact, if eedar really wanted to set a narrative that the industry is healthy and growing significantly, removing Nintendo entirely would be the way to do it since those platforms contribute most of the declines.

 

[diffusionx]

The game industry isn't crashing; Nintendo just fucked up that badly.

PS4 is doing phenomenally. XBO is doing pretty well. It's just Nintendo who's in a seriously bad bind. Yet to some people Nintendo == Global Video Game Industry so if they're not doing so hot w/ their home consoles then everyone's doing poorly.

Pretty faulty logic.

XBO's numbers for the time period don't seem all that questionable to me. It may do marginal sales in many countries outside of US and UK but those sales still add up.

Game industry isn't crashing, but Xbox One is not doing well. It's a failure. Sony is well on their way to capturing 70% of the console market. MS totally blew it this gen.

This is why MS is putting all their stuff on PC. Last year they trotted out a phenomenal lineup - Tomb Raider, Halo 5, Forza 6, Gears 1, Rare Replay, etc. - and it just didn't move the needle. Might as well get these games out to more people who can play them.

 

[Conduit]

A few years here and I'm still Junior Member though I've been making lots of threads via help of other members.

I forgot to see your title.

Anyway, can you be specific about which retailers?

Though I asked some retailers and they say that big games like GTA5, Destiny, COD or FIFA are still selling for Xbox One though in 1:50 to PS4 or even lower ratio

 

[Lister]

For those of you that believe that the console market is unviable, what do you see emerging in its stead? To people no longer play games on their televisions? Do they hook up PCs? What happens to that play pattern next?

I don't think the console market is no longer viable, but I do think that there is no longer room for 2 competitors who are too like each other.

Nintendo I think is it's own thing, they have experiences you relaly can't find anywhere else, and so they have a nice slice of the market all cut out just for them.

In the meantime Sony and Microsoft are essentially copies of each other. Even the handful of exclusives they manage to put out every couple of years are essentially mirrors of each other: Quantum break/Uncharted, SFV/Killer instict. There's just no longer room for that.

And PC has grown so huge and prolific now a days, that it dominates the conversation amongs a large core fanbase, from twitch to youtube, to free to play, to indies, that it's also carved out it's very large "niche" too.

The reaction fo the console manufacturers hasn't been to try and do things differently from eveyrone else, but to imittate the PC model, and in doing so they've become more like each other.

Again, I think there's no room for that any longer in the market, and Sony's meteoric sales are bearing that out.

 

[Malakai]

Since the Wii U and 3DS markete are so relatively small, in decline, and dominated by first party, it wouldn't matter if they did.

In fact, if eedar really wanted to set a narrative that the industry is healthy and growing significantly, removing Nintendo entirely would be the way to do it since those platforms contribute most of the declines.

Assuming 12 million for Xbox One and 14 million PS4 were sold in the United States vs 5 million Wii U and 17 million for the 3DS in the US. I wouldn't describe that as "relatively small".

Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/160202e.pdf
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