adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Can someone do a quick n dirty PS2 tower somewhere in there and see how the rest compare to the king ?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
EEDAR releases console hardware chart, has Xbox One at 20 million as of December 2015
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Captain Smoker
Member
Exact numbers via Adobe Illustrator:
PS4: 35.924.000
XB1: 20.000.000
WIU: 11.975.000
Wii: 101.529.000
PS3: 87.771.000
X360: 85.096.000
3DS: 48.408.000
Vita: 10.064.000
Numbers are just estimates, there are official Nintendo numbers and 3DS is way off: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html
joecanada
Member
Theres 30 years worth of data for Nintendo if you want to be specific. so graph their sales over 30 years and the three Wii blew up will still look an outlier
Welfare
Member
Hmm.
Yeah 3DS looks to be questionable. US+JP is at ~36.7m at the end of 2015. ROTW would only account for ~11.7m?
Also, just for fun, going with that 20m estimate for the XB1, US would represent 56% of XB1 WW sales.
The issue is that it assumes every single Wii owner is casual which is untrue. Even if one quarter weren't casual gamers it dismisses its claim outright. Also I don't see how Guitar Hero's demographics is less hardcore than say Call of Duty's.
Nevermind, I'm high as shit, it seems. Anyway, I still wouldn't take these graphs as anything other than estimations.
Welfare
Member
Well everything is just an estimation. They do have NPD data though, and Japan numbers are public, so the only question would be if they have access to GFK.
Basically, even with these estimates, nothing looks to be wildly off besides the 3DS.
Yeah, I'm mainly referring to the XB1 numbers, aside from the 3DS numbers, of course, which have been proven to be way off. As your post states, if we take the 20 million figure at face value, the US contributes only 56% of the global sales. I just find that really unlikely, that's all.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
These numbers are old. All of these systems, particularly PS4 and 3DS, should be a good bit more in sales than what's listed here. If their XBO estimates's around 20 million for that time frame I figure it's probably closer to 22 million now WW. PS4 should be around 40-42 million at this moment also.
In fact I'm sure the numbers in OP were already known as far back as December around these parts, if not early January.
In fact I'm sure the numbers in OP were already known as far back as December around these parts, if not early January.
PeregrinSe7en
Member
the latter is a better system with better games
CosmicQueso
Member
Well, there aren't 30 observations.
So what would you suggest? Using the available information that is available to construct, in even the most shallow of ways, what segments of the market are and are not performing compared to some historical point in time or just throw one's hands up and say "I dunno!" and assume that the decline in console spend is just impossible to get any sense of understanding of and just project its utter demise, because that's what the curve is saying?
No one, including EEDAR, is saying that the Wii was an unimportant platform, or that its performance should be ignored. What is being attempted in the graph is to show guidance to the audience as to current market trends, to show what segments are doing when compared to some prior period.
If you are a dev or pub that focuses primarily on MS/Sony platforms, knowing the context of the market without Nintendo included is useful information, isn't it? If you are an investment bank, don't you want to know the component parts of the current console market?
By not looking at even shallow detail is how we get major press outlets saying mobile is killing console and the whole consoles are dead thing.
And it outsold the 360 every year on average. It just started 12-16 months late.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
lol 3DS' numbers alone are 10M short of the real figure as of Dec. 2015
Not a chance
Depends. If Nintendo really stopped production (and has been having stock issues in Japan for months now) so that WiiU@$99 won't happen and NX comes out by Xmas 2016 then probably. If WiiU has Xmas 2016 all by itself then nope.
Not a chance
Depends. If Nintendo really stopped production (and has been having stock issues in Japan for months now) so that WiiU@$99 won't happen and NX comes out by Xmas 2016 then probably. If WiiU has Xmas 2016 all by itself then nope.
The graphs don't claim anything, they show data.
and the data shows, that the genres most popular on the Wii showed a very strong decline when the gen changed. At the same time, software sales on the the more traditional consoles seem to be about the same.
That indicates that a big part of the Wii audience left the console space.
"hardcore/core" in this context is a marketing term and means the part of the audience the videogames industry has traditionally marketed to. It's not meant as a value judgement about how dedicated a player that demographic is.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
Yeah I posted some of the stuff in the other thread:
Whoops, now I am just going through the slides and there's a bunch of interesting stats that I don't want to create new threads for, so I just post them here and anyone can feel free to create new threads:
Kickstarter:
Relationship between marketing budget + review scores
Digital revenue
Physical / Digital revenue split
Steam games
Holy WOW @ that first graph. It really is a tournament at brick and mortar lately.
Any link on vita number there? I never remember vita reaching 10 mill here.
LukasTaves
Member
...And that is why they have been spending so much promoting XboxOne sales at retail??
Brilliant strategy Microsoft.
Sales would more than likely be worse for the Xbox One if they didn't do it, so it's definitely a strategy that makes sense.
Heaven forbid they do both.
joecanada
Member
its kind of a necessity at this point. It looks like xbox averages twice as much promotion, and they are selling half as much, that is an absolute killer for your bottom line. although this is probably USA only so they aren't really being outsold 2:1 there. still even twice the promotion for equal sales would even be a high expense to your bottom line...
CosmicQueso
Member
Sure. But as you point out, what other choice to they have at the moment?
No offense, but you are taking the intent and messaging of these slides in the entirely wrong way. All the slide is conveying is that a healthy market remains on MS/Sony platforms, and that certain genres are down and others up. It's no value judgment on the players or the systems, and the data is certainly not carrying any narrative other than "hey there's opportunity on these platforms and these genres".
I'm sorry but this is only true to a point. Was the Wii mostly built off casual gamers? True, however taking away THE ENTIRE WII AUDIENCE and then point that your claim is true (just barely) is an enormous flaw. Especially when they cherry pick genres that prove their claims. Yes FPS games and "action" games have become more popular, but what about RPGs? Fighting games? Strategy games? Etc. They have these games all amongst the top on another chart, but very conveniently don't show them on the other."
It would have made more sense if they only added the Wii core genres to the previous generation list, but they didn't because they knew that would screw up their narrative.
That's ridiculous. Phil must had to practice smiling before doing interviews or going on stage.I kinda expected this to be in favor of the Xbox One given all the console promotions we see, but it's more lopsided that I would've thought
That target number seems pretty understandable, considering how significant their black Friday push was the last two years. Didn't they have front page space and gift card promos on top of the lowered costs?
And they've been very aggressive in ad space at our stores as well, despite ps4s selling more consistently.
Nintendo only have released like 12 gaming systems over the last 30 years. You still wouldn't use the term outlier when you have a dataset of 12 data points. You aren't referencing sells per year; however, you are referencing total sales per gaming system.
CosmicQueso
Member
sigh
Welfare
Member
Nintendo consoles were on a decline since the very beginning.
NES - 61.91m
SNES - 49.1m (-20.7%)
N64 - 32.93m (-32.9%)
GCN - 21.74m (-34%)
WII - 101.63m (+367.5%)
WIU - 12.6m (-87.6%)
Wii is absolutely an outlier for Nintendo home consoles.
Without the Wii
NES - 61.91m
SNES - 49.1m (-20.7%)
N64 - 32.93m (-32.9%)
GCN - 21.74m (-34%)
WIU - 12.6m (-42%)
And given that the Wii U is still selling, it'll get closer to the GCN, but the trend is that Nintendo is on a decline, and every generation is a worse drop than the last.
Let me try one more time.
The chart is dishonest for primarily two reasons:
The first is that it does not include the Wii at all what so ever. While the Wii definitely sold to a lot of casual gamers, it also sold to a lot of core gamers as well. Super Smash Bros. Brawl sold nearly 13 million copies.Twilight Princess sold three quarters to 10 million copies. Skyward Sword, Call of Duty, and Resident Evil 4 were all multi-million sellers. Metroid Prime 3, Monster Hunter Tri, and Red Steel sold well over a million copies. It is clear that there was a reasonable share of the Wii's userbase that was core. Instead of counting this userbase they dismiss alright and end up BARELY having this generation beat the previous one in software sales. If the Wii core software sales was accurately measured and counted for, then the previous generation would beat this generation software sales easily.
The second reason why this data is bollocks is because it only shows significant growth in two genres: which are "action" and shooter. This doesn't include other genres such as fighting, "strategy" (the seventh most popular genre on console according to the chart), "narrative", and others. The genres are in quotations because I'm not sure how they define them, but either way it does call for skepticism when they talk about growth, when every other genre they showed was either flat or showed decline.
The problem is that things may not be as healthy as they are making it seem. Software sales for core games could certainly be down on consoles since they discounted software sales on an entire platform.
You missed the point completely.
How convenient of you to just list Nintendo home console sales.
We also have 4 million in France alone by end of 2015. And in UK was over 2 million back in December 2013.
I mean yeah, 3DS can't be so low...
joecanada
Member
first of all it would be perfectly acceptable to graph "sales revenue per year Nintendo home consoles" over 30 years.
Second of all, do you really believe that multimillion dollar companies crunch numbers and then in a sales meeting the accountant tells the CEO "well we are on a real downward slide here but the numbers are not really statistically significant because we don't have enough data points".... Do you think that is how companies operate in real life? I have taken statistics, don't worry, but there is this thing called real life where you need to know right now what the status of your business is. and the current status of Nintendo is WiiU. the console before Wii was the Gamecube, let that sink in. And the Wii is looking more and more like an outlier the more time that goes by. Do you expect the Wii to start selling 20 million this year? Next? If the Wii isn't an outlier how exactly would you define it?
Please graph Nintendo home console sales by year or by system and then post here and show me how it is the norm for them to sell over 100 million or up to 20 million per year?! (im not sure how much the wii sold per year but it must have been a lot).
Outlier - NOUN
1.a person or thing situated away or detached from the main body or system:
"less accessible islands and outliers"
home console sales is exactly what I stated was an outlier when you started arguing the definition of outlier.
edit - graph added
Never mind the fact that Nintendo made a HELL of a lot more money than Sony and Microsoft gaming divisions even when N64 and the Gamecube sold less than it's opposition. Never mind that fact that you are and continue to ignore Nintendo other sales from their other gaming systems. Never mind, that the Wii and the DS most likely made more money than both Sony and Microsoft gaming division put together in the generation 7. Never mind the fact that the Wii sold a lot of systems and still didn't get the major third party support. (Nearly at rate 2:1 in the beginning Wii
S3 & XBox360). But, I suppose the Wii doesn't matter at all....It is kinda funny that Nintendo, actually, have more systems that sold more than 100 million than Sony. The GB/GBC, DS and the Wii vs PS1 and PS2 for Sony.
Boombloxer
Member
This has suddenly turned into sad comedy.
Please continue to argue that water is actually fire aka I don't know what what an outlier is for home consoles.
Please continue to argue that water is actually fire aka I don't know what what an outlier is for home consoles.
It comes of disingenuous to discount the Wii software sales due to it being "outlier". They are literally abusing the term if they want to exclude it from analysis. Gaming systems sales aren't just random observations were we get to pick and chose and dismiss what we want.
CosmicQueso
Member
Those slides are trying to offer some future guidance coming out of the huge declines from prior gen. It's a forward looking document, and is basically saying that the consumer spend the market enjoyed during the Wii era has left the dedicated console market.
These slides are actually communicating what you are wishing it did, it's just doing so in a different way. Instead of saying "the Wii was huge and it declined and now the market is down and those people left" it's saying "removing the Wii, we see that the other platforms are stable/have grown". The end result is the same thing. "The Wii was this powerhouse console that provided a ton of consumer spend that is gone now. So, pubs & devs, what should you focus on now?"
You're looking for long-term trends, and trying to parse whatever you can from the data available. The inclusion of the Wii data into these trends makes the data less useful. No one is discounting the Wii. It was just so successful that it doesn't align with any other set of data points. And, when analyzing real data, sometimes things aren't perfect. You have to take what you have, mold it as well as you can, note that the sample size is small, ensure that you communicate that the range of error on whatever findings are made is higher because of it, but you still need to come up with ideas of what has happened and why and what should be done about it. As an analyst, that's your job. You don't need to fight for the honor of the Nintendo Wii, there's not one person working in the videogame industry that is unaware of its importance.
Never mind the fact that Nintendo made a HELL of a lot more money than Sony and Microsoft gaming divisions even when N64 and the Gamecube sold less than it's opposition. Never mind that fact that you are and continue to ignore Nintendo other sales from their other gaming systems. Never mind, that the Wii and the DS most likely made more money than both Sony and Microsoft gaming division put together in the generation 7. Never mind the fact that the Wii sold a lot of systems and still didn't get the major third party support. (Nearly at rate 2:1 in the beginning Wii
You are completely, utterly, fantastically, amazingly missing the point of the data presented.
Cosmic, I'd like to state that the way you present your commentary and attempt to make the data being presented more relatable for him is really awesome. You're one of my favorite posters here on GAF, and you make the Sales side of things really rewarding for me.
On to your commentary!
Everything you've presented in the above post is really reasonable, rational, and carefully worded to fall in line with the obvious information we have associated with the analysis. No one is trying to pretend that the Wii was somehow not important or significant.
Why it was being left out of the analysis is to make sure that for those clients that are using this data as an actual metric for forward considerations of planning for future projects, that unlike the Wii, the PS4/XB1 remain largely stable in their overall format for the spend/purchasing habits, while the Wii was a totally unexpected variable in the larger trends of console gaming that no one could account for, and there's no way to try and put a 'lightning in a bottle' planning again.
Some people are so defensive over their favorite brand as though it's being considered as not the astronomical success story that it was in the first half of last generation, the Wii totally killed it. But it didn't represent a consistent pattern to be able to plan around.
The kind of games Wii attracted, outside of Nintendo games, were the mid/low budget productions.
Those kind of games moved to PC DL/Mobile.
Reason being not just the audience but the costs associated with them too.
What is going to kill variety in the retail console industry is the costs to produce and market games.
nitekrawlwer
Member
I don't buy that argument for Nintendo home consoles. NES sold 62 million when the market was much smaller. The difference between it and it's competitors at the time looks quite similar to what we see in every gen there is a drastic market leader.
Now all of last gen was an outlier? Then why compare to only 2/3 outliers if they are all outliers?
CosmicQueso said:
I'm well aware of the words meaning. The Wii isn't even the best selling console. It's certainly not abnormally high. Are ps2 and ps1 outliers now too?
EEDAR and their disingenuous comparison are who you should be accusing of console warrior behavior to make their favorites look good. I'm not the one ignoring sales when they suit my narrative.
See my response to the first quote. I don't think it's an outlier for Nintendo home consoles. NES dominated the market similar to the way PS1 and PS2 did. The market was simply much smaller at the time.
The reference is to the past picture of the market. There is no reason beyond making this gen appear to be doing better to take away a slice of the market.
I apologize for the late response. Some newly acquired real life responsibilities prevented me from responding earlier.
CosmicQueso
Member
Right back at you, Ab!
We had just over 200 packaged releases hit the US market last year, just slightly down versus the year prior.
We had over 900 packaged releases in 2009.
One could argue that variety in the retail console industry is already dead to a great extent, particularly when comparing to the peak period (when release count was indeed driven by the Nintendo Wii and NDS).
Are you finding enough variety in what remains to continue being interested in purchasing consoles and games at retail?
How low can that release count number go before people lose interest? 175? 150?
If the NX can really hit (and if it uses physical software) maybe we can see that variety start to return.
If it doesn't, I don't know what will. That's the scary part of the current market environment, imo.
Take a step back for a moment and ask yourself whether an organization like EEDAR, one that provides professional analytic services for most of the major publishers in the industry, has "favorites" in the console space. That they would then take that biased information to a major corporation, full of smart people that have been working in the games industry, in some cases, since before the PS1, present that biased information, in order to push those "favorites"? And, by extent, do you also believe that these people at publishers and developers that utilize this information, would not be able to see any inherent bias? That they would all just fall for a "narrative" over EEDAR's consoles of choice? And that then these major corporations would make investment and business decisions not realizing that the whole time they'd been brainwashed?
Do you honestly believe, truly, that this is how the industry works?
We had just over 200 packaged releases hit the US market last year, just slightly down versus the year prior.
We had over 900 packaged releases in 2009.
One could argue that variety in the retail console industry is already dead to a great extent, particularly when comparing to the peak period (when release count was indeed driven by the Nintendo Wii and NDS).
Are you finding enough variety in what remains to continue being interested in purchasing consoles and games at retail?
How low can that release count number go before people lose interest? 175? 150?
If the NX can really hit (and if it uses physical software) maybe we can see that variety start to return.
If it doesn't, I don't know what will. That's the scary part of the current market environment, imo.
Take a step back for a moment and ask yourself whether an organization like EEDAR, one that provides professional analytic services for most of the major publishers in the industry, has "favorites" in the console space. That they would then take that biased information to a major corporation, full of smart people that have been working in the games industry, in some cases, since before the PS1, present that biased information, in order to push those "favorites"? And, by extent, do you also believe that these people at publishers and developers that utilize this information, would not be able to see any inherent bias? That they would all just fall for a "narrative" over EEDAR's consoles of choice? And that then these major corporations would make investment and business decisions not realizing that the whole time they'd been brainwashed?
Do you honestly believe, truly, that this is how the industry works?
PotionBleue
Member
Could someone ask them about the ridiculously off 3DS figure? It makes the whole thing quite untrustworthy
https://twitter.com/GeoffreyZatkin
https://twitter.com/EEDAR
https://twitter.com/GeoffreyZatkin
https://twitter.com/EEDAR