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Superdata: Nintendo Switch has sold 1.5m worldwide tracked

Waji

Member
Install base matters up to a certain point. A system that flops like the Wii U necessarily limits the sales potential of its games, even if it is not a linear correlation. To the install base argument you can also add that a large part of the Switch audience is likely Wii U owners with a special interest in Zelda, meaning that the sales of Zelda will probably skew away from WiiU. If Switch takes off, and it starts to have several dozen million user base, we can take another look at BOTW and FFXV and see how they match up (though the comparison to me is quite arbitrary), especially since both games will have been able to show their legs as well.
Of course it's arbitrary, that's why I said it wasn't a troll but just my... feeling on it.
I could actually use other games in this comparison. Just took a recent one that sold enough.
I agree with everything you say here.
 

Bruno MB

Member
The article does say that most of the numbers mentioned are first week numbers, so we can't really do this verification, right?

I had only read the OP.

It seems 1.5 million is the total for the first 2 weeks while the breakdown by region is for the launch week.
 
lol What can Nintendo do to drop some crater? Mario Kart, Mario and Zelda have been revealed already.

The only thing Nintendo can do at this point is drop some new IP that would gauge interest in the level of Mario, Smash, etc... or new Smash. They've pretty much unveiled most of the big hitters they release every single console.

Pokemon that looks fresh for a console to me is the only thing that can be that big.

Getting another Bayonetta like IP will do it for the hardcore fans. IDK what is out there that can get that impact though....

Oh , i forget Monster Hunter.
 

Zedark

Member
I feel like Nintendo needs to release at least one big system seller game per quarter to keep Switch alive. Four per year.

For the first year at the very least I agree. We have BOTW for launch, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for Q2, Splatoon 2 for Q3 and Mario Odyssey for Q4. Splinkled in between there we have ARMS, FE Warriors and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (on paper), so from a first party perspective it looks good imo. Beyond 2017, this necessity will depend on the degree to which third party support, AAA or otherwise, will flock to the system. Switch has a good lineup of indies for this year already, so that is promising at least. A game like Dragon Quest XI, in addition, will be a major potential system seller as well (in Japan mostly), since Nintendo and Dragon Quest seem intimately connected.

Edit:
I had only read the OP.

It seems 1.5 million is the total for the first 2 weeks while the breakdown by region is for the launch week.
Yeah, that's how I interpreted the data. Would have been a big disappointment otherwise, since it would indicate that UK and France only bought 5k units in the second week and Japan only 30k, which would constitute a horrible result.
 
This thing is going to be impossible to get around Christmas if everything keeps going to plan isnt it.

its-all-falling-into-place-thumb.jpg
 
I think what will make all the difference to Zelda sales and going forward for Switch sales is the e3 titles, plus also the directs that will continue coming.

Killer titles for me would be

Luigis mansion switch

Wave racer switch

pilotwings switch

Cruisin switch

along with new and exciting Ips !

Wait till more of the games like Arms etc and a new Animal crossing are released/announced and watch this beauty fly!!
 

Zedark

Member
lol What can Nintendo do to drop some crater? Mario Kart, Mario and Zelda have been revealed already.

The only thing Nintendo can do at this point is drop some new IP that would gauge interest in the level of Mario, Smash, etc... or new Smash. They've pretty much unveiled most of the big hitters they release every single console.

Pokemon that looks fresh for a console to me is the only thing that can be that big.

I think pokémon in any (mainline) capacity would crater the E3 convention hall, but beyond that they could do Smash and Retro's new game. Besides that, they have plenty of smaller IP that have a decent following: not every game announced has to be a 10+ million seller to be constructive for the system's appeal (especially Fire Emblem and Xenoblade come to mind, reasonable sellers but mostly a differentiator for the total lineup, creating some much needed diversity to pull in different niches).
 
So they undershipped in the US and JP and overshipped in EU?

What's the situation in France anyway. Isn't it the most pro Nintendo country over here? Maybe they should have put more in there.
 

JustenP88

I earned 100 Gamerscore™ for collecting 300 widgets and thereby created Trump's America
I feel like Nintendo needs to release at least one big system seller game per quarter to keep Switch alive. Four per year.

Jeeeeez, that seems kinda steep but maybe I need some different perspective. PS4 was like 5-6 system-sellers behind that pace by the time Bloodborne came out. Not sure why Nintendo has to meet that arbitrary metric just to survive.
 

Zedark

Member
So they undershipped in the US and JP and overshipped in EU?

What's the situation in France anyway. Isn't it the most pro Nintendo country over here? Maybe they should have put more in there.

Numbers in OP for Japan, UK and France (maybe US, but we have no evidence for that) are first week numbers, basically they are what we already knew but tracked by a different company. These are very likely not second week sales.
Jeeeeez, that seems kinda steep but maybe I need some different perspective. PS4 was like 5-6 system-sellers behind that pace by the time Bloodborne came out. Not sure why Nintendo has to meet that arbitrary metric just to survive.
Third party support, basically. If Switch can pull in a good amount of that, then the necessity to maintain the lineup by themselves lightens up big time, and big hitters become a luxury for the system rather than a necessity in order to keep it alive. For the first year we have very limited support from big publishers, so Nintendo will need to pull that along manually (together with indies), but beyond that we can't really say right now.
 

Deku Tree

Member
Jeeeeez, that seems kinda steep but maybe I need some different perspective. PS4 was like 5-6 system-sellers behind that pace by the time Bloodborne came out. Not sure why Nintendo has to meet that arbitrary metric just to survive.

Sony has tons of third party system sellers all the time. Much much more than four per year. Nintendo doesn't have that much third party.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Jeeeeez, that seems kinda steep but maybe I need some different perspective. PS4 was like 5-6 system-sellers behind that pace by the time Bloodborne came out. Not sure why Nintendo has to meet that arbitrary metric just to survive.

I think that one shift I'm seeing (at least very early on) is that unlike Wii U the Switch is an inherently appealing product that people just want to get their hands on- Obviously Zelda is huge, but I do suspect that at least initially Nintendo might be able to get by on hardware hype more than they have in the past.
 
I'll be interested to see if the Switch can generate sustained interest at a time when I feel the other platforms are really hitting their stride.
 

ramparter

Banned
What slow months? Lets assume Mario comes out November. Between now and then there are 6 months. 2 of those months are confirmed to have Mario Kart and Splatoon (each could move 1M Console Units) Then Smash 4 and Pokemon Stars* will likely also release in that time frame (each could also move 1M a Month)

September/October is going to bring Fifa/NBA2K which will move systems if the console still has momentum. (Pretty likely)

So theoretically Nintendo will have maybe 500k stock in reserve and producing 1M a month going into the holidays with a new Mario game, a Zelda GOTY edition, 1 unanounced game (Retro?) And bundles featuring MK8D and Splatoon to push online subscriptions.

Im not sure they need to ramp up production much, but the Switch could be sold out all year on the current production schedule if demand holds

*placeholder for whatever Pokemon Sun/Moon's 3rd game is called
I meant months that Switch won't sell 1 million. Unless it manages to sell 1 million every month till the end of 2017 which would be an extremely strong start, 10 millions in less than a year.
 

Zedark

Member
I meant months that Switch won't sell 1 million. Unless it manages to sell 1 million every month till the end of 2017 which would be an extremely strong start, 10 millions in less than a year.

I am actually quite interested in hearing what people consider decent numbers for different months. Launch is a fix for good sales, with 2 million or more depending on the extra shipments existing or not, but beyond that no one has really committed to a number of units range that would be decent for a system. 1 million a month would obviously be massive, possibly over PS4 numbers during slow months, but what is a reasonable expectation?
 

Baleoce

Member
Jeeeeez, that seems kinda steep but maybe I need some different perspective. PS4 was like 5-6 system-sellers behind that pace by the time Bloodborne came out. Not sure why Nintendo has to meet that arbitrary metric just to survive.

I think it's important to make the distinction between games that are seen as mediocre in retrospect in the enthusiast circle, and franchises that are strong enough to sell systems by name alone to the general public.

Regardless of how they performed, the PS4 had franchise support that all but guaranteed those systems sold at the rate they did. I look at the launch lineup alone, and I see an Assassins Creed, a Battlefield, a Call of Duty, a FIFA, and a Madden game.
 

JustenP88

I earned 100 Gamerscore™ for collecting 300 widgets and thereby created Trump's America
I think that one shift I'm seeing (at least very early on) is that unlike Wii U the Switch is an inherently appealing product that people just want to get their hands on- Obviously Zelda is huge, but I do suspect that at least initially Nintendo might be able to get by on hardware hype more than they have in the past.

Yeah, I think this is a "prove" it year for them. 3rd parties probably won't jump in until they trust that there might be some return on their investment. People seem to generally enjoy the Switch as far as the hardware goes. People enjoy Zelda, they'll enjoy Mario Kart and Odyssey and you've got to at least respect Spla2n, Arms and Xenoblade as what will, probably, be pretty damn good games.

All in all, if I were looking at the Switch this holiday season, I'd see a pretty good value proposition, I think. If you put a Switch, Zelda, Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart under my Christmas tree I would suck you silly. That's a dope Christmas.

Sony has tons of third party system sellers all the time. Much much more than four per year. Nintendo doesn't have that much third party.

Ahhh, I read "Nintendo needs to release" and took it literally. 3rd party support is still TBD, of course and is definitely important. Regardless of whether my bias allows me to see any of those games as system sellers lol (i guess I get The Witcher).
 

Zedark

Member
I think it's important to make the distinction between games that are seen as mediocre in retrospect in the enthusiast circle, and franchises that are strong enough to sell systems by name alone.

Regardless of how they performed, the PS4 had franchise support that all but guaranteed those systems sold at the rate they did.

What games qualify in that regard? Infamous Second Son and Killzone Shadow Fall, Driveclub maybe (it did 2 million at the end of the day), what else? Would The Order count even though it kinda bombed for its budget? Knack is necessarily skewed by its being bundled in Japan, so that one maybe, or maybe not? I would personally say we have 3-4 potential system sellers here, for 6 quarters. Not bad, but none of those games were system sellers on the level that Nintendo is putting out in the first 4 quarters of the Switch's lifetime (Zelda, Mario, Splatoon 2).

Of course, if you start counting third party system sellers like FIFA and COD, then you will easily get there, but that is not really the premise of the comment I think.

Edit: Ah, I see you were referring to third party system sellers as well. In that case, I do agree with you.
 
This data seems incomplete. Are they making assumptions and extrapolating known figures (France, Japan, UK) or do they really have access to not yet disclosed sales info?
 

ramparter

Banned
The attach rate for zelda hardly seems surprising.

It's not like there are other games to buy with the switch.
The attach rate of Zelda makes me extremely happy but also I feel the need to ask the question:
Did Zelda sold Switches or Switches sold Zelda?
Because I have the feeling many people were already sold on the idea of the Switch alone, were planning to buy it anyway and bought Zelda because obviously it made the most sense.
 

pelicansurf

Needs a Holiday on Gallifrey
The attach rate of Zelda makes me extremely happy but also I feel the need to ask the question:
Did Zelda sold Switches or Switches sold Zelda?
Because I have the feeling many people were already sold on the idea of the Switch alone, were planning to buy it anyway and bought Zelda because obviously it made the most sense.

If there was no Zelda, the Switch sales would've been horrendous.

I preordered a switch to play Zelda at its best. If it wasn't available it would've been a hard pass, even though I would've gotten one eventually.
 
If there was no Zelda, the Switch sales would've been horrendous.

I preordered a switch to play Zelda at its best. If it wasn't available it would've been a hard pass, even though I would've gotten one eventually.

Spot on. This was the best thing they could've done. I held off on a pre-order but all the Zelda reviews/positive impressions made me scrap to find one. I'm really glad I did because it's a really nice piece of hardware.
 

Nestunt

Member
Since I am planning on buying a Switch next year, these numbers give me some assurance that this is going to be a platform where Nintendo can do some investment on. I want all their studios focused on that machine.
 

ramparter

Banned
If there was no Zelda, the Switch sales would've been horrendous.

I preordered a switch to play Zelda at its best. If it wasn't available it would've been a hard pass, even though I would've gotten one eventually.

Yeah obviously, me too don't get me wrong. But I still think that many of the buyers wanted first the Switch and then the Zelda.
 
If there was no Zelda, the Switch sales would've been horrendous.

I preordered a switch to play Zelda at its best. If it wasn't available it would've been a hard pass, even though I would've gotten one eventually.

Same here. Even having a Wii U, the idea of taking Zelda with me on trips was hard to resist. The Switch has a certain cool vibe to it that the Wii U didn't have, but without Zelda there really wouldn't be much use to it until other games like Mario Odissey come out, or even if they finally add Game Cube VC.
 
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