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Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Can someone do a quick n dirty PS2 tower somewhere in there and see how the rest compare to the king ?
Exact numbers via Adobe Illustrator:Actually, I'm surprised nobody pixel counted this to see what these would actually be in number form. Also spoiler, EEDAR actually have the XB1 at <20m. Bar hits right below the 20m threshold, not on it.
So the EEDAR have the consoles at:
PS4: ~36.2m
XB1: ~19.6m
Wii U: ~12.1m
PS3: ~86.8m
Wii: ~100.4m
360: ~84.15m
3DS: ~47.9m
Vita: ~10.2m
Generally, to draw an inference one will need a sample greater than 30 observations or datasets.
Exact numbers via Adobe Illustrator:
PS4: 35.924.000
XB1: 20.000.000
WIU: 11.975.000
Wii: 101.529.000
PS3: 87.771.000
X360: 85.096.000
3DS: 48.408.000
Vita: 10.064.000
Numbers are just estimates, there are official Nintendo numbers and 3DS is way off: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html
This is about demographics more than it is about the accurate meaning of the word.
The demographic buying action games is the "traditional" game buying audience on consoles hence they are "core" and according to the charts is pretty much unchanged.
The audience buying Wii Games (like dance games/genral entertainment) is gone. They have not moved on to the new generation of consoles.
Racing is also in the "core" half of the charts.
Nevermind, I'm high as shit, it seems. Anyway, I still wouldn't take these graphs as anything other than estimations.Exact numbers via Adobe Illustrator:
PS4: 35.924.000
XB1: 20.000.000
WIU: 11.975.000
Wii: 101.529.000
PS3: 87.771.000
X360: 85.096.000
3DS: 48.408.000
Vita: 10.064.000
Numbers are just estimates, there are official Nintendo numbers and 3DS is way off: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html
Nevermind, I'm high as shit, it seems. Anyway, I still wouldn't take these graphs as anything other than estimations.
Yeah, I'm mainly referring to the XB1 numbers, aside from the 3DS numbers, of course, which have been proven to be way off. As your post states, if we take the 20 million figure at face value, the US contributes only 56% of the global sales. I just find that really unlikely, that's all.Well everything is just an estimation. They do have NPD data though, and Japan numbers are public, so the only question would be if they have access to GFK.
Basically, even with these estimates, nothing looks to be wildly off besides the 3DS.
Wii U in the same ballpark as the Vita is fucking gross. the latter should have never crossed 5 mill
Generally, to draw an inference one will need a sample greater than 30 observations or datasets.
It's fascinating how so many people are surprised the ps3 overtook the 360. I mean, Japan and Europe carried that console. It was bound to happen eventually.
Wonder if the PS3 can overtake the Wii before it's discontinued.
I wonder if the Vita can overtake the Wii U.
The issue is that it assumes every single Wii owner is casual which is untrue. Even if one quarter weren't casual gamers it dismisses its claim outright. Also I don't see how Guitar Hero's demographics is less hardcore than say Call of Duty's.
Yeah I posted some of the stuff in the other thread:
Whoops, now I am just going through the slides and there's a bunch of interesting stats that I don't want to create new threads for, so I just post them here and anyone can feel free to create new threads:
Kickstarter:
Relationship between marketing budget + review scores
Digital revenue
Physical / Digital revenue split
Steam games
I think you're right, looks like it's less then 55M in the graph.
The Vita numbers seems to be a bit below 10M which can't be right since we know that it passed it several years ago.
Microsoft generally seem to like advertising their products more than improving them.
...And that is why they have been spending so much promoting XboxOne sales at retail??
Brilliant strategy Microsoft.
Microsoft generally seem to like advertising their products more than improving them.
Sales would more than likely be worse for the Xbox One if they didn't do it, so it's definitely a strategy that makes sense.
Heaven forbid they do both.
Any link on vita number there? I never remember vita reaching 10 mill here.
That leaves us with PlayStation Vita, which Sony is notoriously quiet about in terms of sales, likely because it's just not doing that well. Still, it's seen a bit of a resurgence this year both in Japan and in the west, and if our assumed sales of PS4 and PS3 are taken into account, that means Vita is hovering around the 10 million units sold mark.
its kind of a necessity at this point. It looks like xbox averages twice as much promotion, and they are selling half as much, that is an absolute killer for your bottom line. although this is probably USA only so they aren't really being outsold 2:1 there. still even twice the promotion for equal sales would even be a high expense to your bottom line...
I'm sorry but this is only true to a point. Was the Wii mostly built off casual gamers? True, however taking away THE ENTIRE WII AUDIENCE and then point that your claim is true (just barely) is an enormous flaw. Especially when they cherry pick genres that prove their claims. Yes FPS games and "action" games have become more popular, but what about RPGs? Fighting games? Strategy games? Etc. They have these games all amongst the top on another chart, but very conveniently don't show them on the other."
It would have made more sense if they only added the Wii core genres to the previous generation list, but they didn't because they knew that would screw up their narrative.
The graphs don't claim anything, they show data.
and the data shows, that the genres most popular on the Wii showed a very strong decline when the gen changed. At the same time, software sales on the the more traditional consoles seem to be about the same.
That indicates that a big part of the Wii audience left the console space.
"hardcore/core" in this context is a marketing term and means the part of the audience the videogames industry has traditionally marketed to. It's not meant as a value judgement about how dedicated a player that demographic is.
I'm sorry but this is only true to a point. Was the Wii mostly built off casual gamers? True, however taking away THE ENTIRE WII AUDIENCE and then point that your claim is true (just barely) is an enormous flaw. Especially when they cherry pick genres that prove their claims. Yes FPS games and "action" games have become more popular, but what about RPGs? Fighting games? Strategy games? Etc. They have these games all amongst the top on another chart, but very conveniently don't show them on the other."
It would have made more sense if they only added the Wii core genres to the previous generation list, but they didn't because they knew that would screw up their narrative.
That's ridiculous. Phil must had to practice smiling before doing interviews or going on stage.I kinda expected this to be in favor of the Xbox One given all the console promotions we see, but it's more lopsided that I would've thought
That's ridiculous. Phil must had to practice smiling before doing interviews or going on stage.
Theres 30 years worth of data for Nintendo if you want to be specific. so graph their sales over 30 years and the three Wii blew up will still look an outlier
Nintendo only have released like 12 gaming systems over the last 30 years. You still wouldn't use the term outlier when you have a dataset of 12 data points. You aren't referencing sells per year; however, you are referencing total sales per gaming system.
Nintendo only have released like 12 gaming systems over the last 30 years. You still wouldn't use the term outlier when you have a dataset of 12 data points. You aren't referencing sells per year; however, you are referencing total sales per gaming system.
Strategy games are a non factor on all consoles, smash is the only relevant fighting game on the wii, and while RPG's are missing from the stats, not one big RPG franchise was on the Wii last gen, so i'm not sure what part is missing there.
No offense, but you are taking the intent and messaging of these slides in the entirely wrong way. All the slide is conveying is that a healthy market remains on MS/Sony platforms, and that certain genres are down and others up. It's no value judgment on the players or the systems, and the data is certainly not carrying any narrative other than "hey there's opportunity on these platforms and these genres".
sigh
Nintendo consoles were on a decline since the very beginning.
NES - 61.91m
SNES - 49.1m (-20.7%)
N64 - 32.93m (-32.9%)
GCN - 21.74m (-34%)
WII - 101.63m (+367.5%)
WIU - 12.6m (-87.6%)
Wii is absolutely an outlier for Nintendo home consoles.
Without the Wii
NES - 61.91m
SNES - 49.1m (-20.7%)
N64 - 32.93m (-32.9%)
GCN - 21.74m (-34%)
WIU - 12.6m (-42%)
And given that the Wii U is still selling, it'll get closer to the GCN, but the trend is that Nintendo is on a decline, and every generation is a worse drop than the last.
Hmm.
Yeah 3DS looks to be questionable. US+JP is at ~36.7m at the end of 2015. ROTW would only account for ~11.7m?
Also, just for fun, going with that 20m estimate for the XB1, US would represent 56% of XB1 WW sales.
Nintendo only have released like 12 gaming systems over the last 30 years. You still wouldn't use the term outlier when you have a dataset of 12 data points. You aren't referencing sells per year; however, you are referencing total sales per gaming system.
You missed the point completely.
How convenient of you to just list Nintendo home console sales.
first of all it would be perfectly acceptable to graph "sales revenue per year Nintendo home consoles" over 30 years.
Second of all, do you really believe that multimillion dollar companies crunch numbers and then in a sales meeting the accountant tells the CEO "well we are on a real downward slide here but the numbers are not really statistically significant because we don't have enough data points".... Do you think that is how companies operate in real life? I have taken statistics, don't worry, but there is this thing called real life where you need to know right now what the status of your business is. and the current status of Nintendo is WiiU. the console before Wii was the Gamecube, let that sink in. And the Wii is looking more and more like an outlier the more time that goes by. Do you expect the Wii to start selling 20 million this year? Next? If the Wii isn't an outlier how exactly would you define it?
Please graph Nintendo home console sales by year or by system and then post here and show me how it is the norm for them to sell over 100 million or up to 20 million per year?! (im not sure how much the wii sold per year but it must have been a lot).
Outlier - NOUN
1.a person or thing situated away or detached from the main body or system:
"less accessible islands and outliers"
home console sales is exactly what I stated was an outlier when you started arguing the definition of outlier.
Ya but outlier in data points can be in comparison to different things. Sony selling 100 million not really an outlier for Sony.
Wii data is an outlier for Nintendo if you graph home consoles. That's a fact because without Wii it's steady decline.
Nintendo selling 100 million hardwares not an outlier if you include handheld
A home console of any type selling 100 million is not an outlier
Depends what the reference is
This has suddenly turned into sad comedy.
Please continue to argue that water is actually fire aka I don't know what what an outlier is for home consoles.
Software sales for core games could certainly be down on consoles since they discounted software sales on an entire platform.
It comes of disingenuous to discount the Wii software sales due to it being "outlier". They are literally abusing the term if they want to exclude it from analysis. Gaming systems sales aren't just random observations were we get to pick and chose and dismiss what we want.
Never mind the fact that Nintendo made a HELL of a lot more money than Sony and Microsoft gaming divisions even when N64 and the Gamecube sold less than it's opposition. Never mind that fact that you are and continue to ignore Nintendo other sales from their other gaming systems. Never mind, that the Wii and the DS most likely made more money than both Sony and Microsoft gaming division put together in the generation 7. Never mind the fact that the Wii sold a lot of systems and still didn't get the major third party support. (Nearly at rate 2:1 in the beginning WiiS3 & XBox360). But, I suppose the Wii doesn't matter at all....
Those slides are trying to offer some future guidance coming out of the huge declines from prior gen. It's a forward looking document, and is basically saying that the consumer spend the market enjoyed during the Wii era has left the dedicated console market.
These slides are actually communicating what you are wishing it did, it's just doing so in a different way. Instead of saying "the Wii was huge and it declined and now the market is down and those people left" it's saying "removing the Wii, we see that the other platforms are stable/have grown". The end result is the same thing. "The Wii was this powerhouse console that provided a ton of consumer spend that is gone now. So, pubs & devs, what should you focus on now?"
You're looking for long-term trends, and trying to parse whatever you can from the data available. The inclusion of the Wii data into these trends makes the data less useful. No one is discounting the Wii. It was just so successful that it doesn't align with any other set of data points. And, when analyzing real data, sometimes things aren't perfect. You have to take what you have, mold it as well as you can, note that the sample size is small, ensure that you communicate that the range of error on whatever findings are made is higher because of it, but you still need to come up with ideas of what has happened and why and what should be done about it. As an analyst, that's your job. You don't need to fight for the honor of the Nintendo Wii, there's not one person working in the videogame industry that is unaware of its importance.
You are completely, utterly, fantastically, amazingly missing the point of the data presented.
The kind of games Wii attracted, outside of Nintendo games, were the mid/low budget productions.The audience buying Wii Games (like dance games/genral entertainment) is gone. They have not moved on to the new generation of consoles.
Its an outlier....for Nintendo home console sales.
If its an outlier for that.....why cant it be one for last gen. All I know is its a grey area with the Wii and last gen. Last gen as a whole was an outlier. That said...even if the Wii had sold as much as the NES....it still would be a decline this gen. It just wouldnt look as bad. The Wii U failing so hard also causes this gen to look bad.
Sony averages over 100 million home console sales from PS1 to PS3....so I dont think one would say that about a Sony home console. MS...you may have a point.
CosmicQueso said:Do you not know what the term "outlier" means in analysis??
It means abnormally high or low performance when compared with the rest of the sample.
The Wii was so massive a success that it far exceeds the rest of the sample of consoles. It also makes projecting the remaining or future market less reliable when it is included.
FFS not everything is a console war.
Calling the Wii an outlier is a huge compliment to its performance and impact on the market.
It has nothing to do with the name on the box.
Ya but outlier in data points can be in comparison to different things. Sony selling 100 million not really an outlier for Sony.
Wii data is an outlier for Nintendo if you graph home consoles. That's a fact because without Wii it's steady decline.
Nintendo selling 100 million hardwares not an outlier if you include handheld
A home console of any type selling 100 million is not an outlier
Depends what the reference is
What is going to kill variety in the retail console industry is the costs to produce and market games.
EEDAR and their disingenuous comparison are who you should be accusing of console warrior behavior to make their favorites look good. I'm not the one ignoring sales when they suit my narrative.