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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

Do I need to spell every single word for you to understand? Every single friend that is a gamer, that shouldn't be hard to understand, but maybe I'm wrong.

Seriously, even my cat was like "meow meow meow Xbox One will totally outsell PS4 in November meow meow meow."
 

shandy706

Member
If you don't like Halo, I think you'd pretty silly to buy a collection with 4 Halo games.

I'm not much of a Halo fan, but plan to pick it up by Xmas. Never finished 3, ODST, or 4. Might as well actually play through a remastered series.

I'd assume he meant "not a big fan" rather than "don't like".
 
I see. I used to think Pachter was a tool, but after watching his GT show my view on him changed. He is just providing his opinion on sales numbers, which is part of his job at Wedbush. He may be wrong or right, but I don't think his intention is to make anyone angry- it's just a side effect.
I don't think him "doing his job" makes him any less of a tool. He does a job many people do (provide sales numbers) and makes a total tool of himself while doing it. At least that's how he always seems to me.
 
Man I hope it's true and the Bone takes the lead in September by a good margin. I've feel like Sony needs a little fire under their asses to start being more proactive again.

Thankfully 2015 seems like a really, really good year. I hope they keep investing in their studios and on indies.

I don't think a month loss in the US would change any of sony's plans. I'm sure prelaunch they were expecting a tough time in the US considering they were outsold last gen by 15 million. As it stands currently, MS would probably need a year of back-to-back wins to catch up in their strongest market, sony don't need to change anything yet.
 
Yeh and everyone in Australia is getting a PS4 , please believe me.

Seriously, even my cat was like "meow meow meow Xbox One will totally outsell PS4 in November meow meow meow."

I don't even know what you guys are trying to do anymore, but please be free to keep doing it. I already said that it is anecdotal, but apparently some of you didn't read that also.

I'm out, this is getting too fanboyish to my tastes.
 
So I think we can all agree that Pachter is smoking something fierce on this one. But it got me thinking. If Microsoft is going to win a month this year it's likely going to be November. But if they don't, when is their next real chance. Sony has the advantage of having two first part exclusives in Q1 2015, but for all appearences Microsoft doesn't look to have anything till at least Q3. We saw the same thing happen this year, they're piling all their releases up in the fall while Sony is spreading them out. So while Microsoft is hoping to have killer months with huge sales, Sony is steadily building up mindshare over the course of the whole year, the next release never to far away.

MS wont' win a single month this year. In fact, I believe they won't win a single month until either:

A $100 price cut (assuming Sony hasn't dropped the price yet)

or

Halo 5 release month (assuming Sony doesn't release UC4 and/or price cut around the same time).

Really, I only see them "winning" a month if Sony messes up (along with the above two scenarios). Like if they run of inventory this season, I could see them winning December (like last year) or if Sony does something stupid.

Most people saying MS will win just seem to assume Sony are just going to sit on their hands and do nothing, which is ridiculous.
 

Biker19

Banned
LBP was also bundled to hell and back for free. Also, I'm calling it right now, LBP 3 will get little to no marketing

I agree, especially when it's releasing on the same day as Dragon Age: Inquisition, Far Cry 4, Grand Theft Auto V, Project CARS, & WWE 2K15. And most of those games are bigger in popularity than LBP as a whole.
 

213372bu

Banned
I can't see any way this would be true.

Destiny and Fifa yo.

Edit:
I'd like to be wrong just so we can get a call-out post that quoted every single post that was wrong though.

Not sure if that is still allowed on GAF, it happened quite a few years before I even signed up.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Pachter seems to be pretty educated when it comes to the NPD, he never really makes any stupid estimates. The only possible way this could be true is if Destiny really didn't perform as well as was expected.

Hah! Yea no. Pachter is known for being wrong the vast majority of the time often by margins far greater than the average GAF predictions. But I'm not surprised to see you making outlandish/absurd claims in defense of Xbox after the AC: Unity threads. I don't understand how you continue to get away with making absurd claims without any proof whatsoever. By all means please continue for the amusement of all.
 

kyser73

Member
Don't Sony have a co-marketing deal for GTA V?

Isn't that out in November?

SO...which one has the bigger pull in NA? Halo or GTA?
 

shwimpy

Member
I agree, especially when it's releasing on the same day as Dragon Age: Inquisition, Far Cry 4, Grand Theft Auto V, Project CARS, & WWE 2K15. And most of those games are bigger in popularity than LBP as a whole.
Especially since Sony has marketing rights to 3 of those games.
 

krioto

Member
Pachter seems to be pretty educated when it comes to the NPD, he never really makes any stupid estimates. The only possible way this could be true is if Destiny really didn't perform as well as was expected.

you've really stepped through the looking glass on this one
 
Wait a fucking second.


Did Pachter predict PS4 to be at August NPD levels?


Dear lord have mercy

That's the laughable part of the entire thing.

Predicting XB1 selling more than PS4? Far-fetched, but not improbable.

The numbers however, are pretty much impossible. Especially since we know Destiny week was the biggest week in 2014 for Sony.
 

JJD

Member
dat Concern for Sony...

It's everywhere in this thread.

Lol, am I concerned? I don't know...maybe I am. Is it a bad thing?

I just want the kind of games that made me feel in love with my PS3 and forget my 360.

This year was rather weak for Sony first party. I still haven't bought a single one of their games. Thankfully next year should be better.
 

MRMagoo

Neo Member
Australia biggest PS4 fanboys confirmed.

Yeh well my comment is about as useful and factual as anyone saying every friend I know is getting an xbox one when halo comes out. We should let the actual numbers do the talking, you see people all the time say , i get multiplats on my xbox one because thats where all my friends are, yet statistically you would have more friends with a PS4 considering the 2 to 1 sales gap.
 

Strike

Member
NQHKSVE.gif
 

Chris1

Member
?

I'm confused, please explain.

If you don't like Halo, I think you'd pretty silly to buy a collection with 4 Halo games.


What I by "people who don't like halo" was people who just think it's an average game and normally wouldn't buy it.

Obviously the game is not for people who hate Halo, but there's a difference between hating and not particularly liking something.

People like me, I guess. I mean, I'm gonna have fun playing it with my friends and I'm gonna get my moneys worth out of it more than probably any other game releasing this holiday except for CoD if it's good, so when taking all that into consideration why not put $60 down on a game I don't particular like, but don't hate either?
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Don't Sony have a co-marketing deal for GTA V?

Isn't that out in November?

SO...which one has the bigger pull in NA? Halo or GTA?

Halo MCC all the way. Package contains insane value. And dont forget it contains Halo 1-2 multiplayer which you cant even play right now. This is a must buy for any halo and shooter fan. GTA5 is just a year old and still playable on old consoles and it costs full price. Real question would be, how many will go and drop 60$ on better visual of the game they already played a year ago. It has already sold 35million I think. So all the casual gamers who buy every new GTA games have already played it.
 

Apathy

Member
MS wont' win a single month this year. In fact, I believe they won't win a single month until either:

A $100 price cut (assuming Sony hasn't dropped the price yet)

or

Halo 5 release month (assuming Sony doesn't release UC4 and/or price cut around the same time).

Really, I only see them "winning" a month if Sony messes up (along with the above two scenarios). Like if they run of inventory this season, I could see them winning December (like last year) or if Sony does something stupid.

Most people saying MS will win just seem to assume Sony are just going to sit on their hands and do nothing, which is ridiculous.

Are you counting November as being part of the first year or the first month of the second year? MCC, while it might not sell as much as a new Halo game, will probably sell a lot and get people to buy the system. That month i would say that MS will sell more consoles (as the month does not have a huge game for sony).
 

Hawk269

Member
Yeh well my comment is about as useful and factual as anyone saying every friend I know is getting an xbox one when halo comes out. We should let the actual numbers do the talking, you see people all the time say , i get multiplats on my xbox one because thats where all my friends are, yet statistically you would have more friends with a PS4 considering the 2 to 1 sales gap.

WTF at the "you would have more friends with a PS4 considering the 2 to 1 sales gap" comment. Just because it has a 2 to 1 gap, does not necessitate that people would have more friends on their list.

A lot of the friends on my list are people I have known for years or Xbox Live, even though I have a PS4, I would not go with PS4 only just because they have a 2 to 1 gap and I have a chance at having more friends on my list.
 
Man I hope it's true and the Bone takes the lead in September by a good margin. I've feel like Sony needs a little fire under their asses to start being more proactive again.

Thankfully 2015 seems like a really, really good year. I hope they keep investing in their studios and on indies.

I agree with this 100%. Ever since MS tried to screw gamers with their anti-consumer BS and followed up with the absolutely brain-dead, tone-deaf PR response to the predictable gamer outrage (that they could have easily avoided) I've been a champion of PS+ and Sony in general for saying and doing all the right things.

But in the last few months MS really started competing and Sony kind of sat back on their laurels. The PS4 UI needs updated badly to provide a better way to organize games. OS media center features need added, like thumb drive movie playback, native PLEX, etc... Instead we get "stability updates." PSN and the online store both need a major overhaul: online reliability is nowhere close to XBL (in my experience) and the layout/organization/ergonomics of the store is ridiculously bad. I still encounter problems watching game preview videos, for example...inexplicably they wont go full-screen or when they do they buffer and stop constantly. Even PS+ which was a BEAST in terms of value to the consumer for a good solid 12-18 months has begun to lose much of its luster as the game rentals on offer have steadily declined in value over the past few months. I already have many of the Indies on Steam and simply dont care for many of the others. Going by sentiments I've seen increasing on GAF I know I'm not alone in considering letting my PS+ sub expire if Sony doesn't get back to aggressively competing.

I'm not in the habit of rooting for a company unless I own stock in it, but in this case I'd like to see MS get a sales boost because they have actually risen to the challenge the past few months by steadily improving Xbone UI experience, adding much desired features to the OS, and by maintaining the usual XBL reliability/speed. They deserve to be rewarded for competing and doing the right things thus far to at least partially make up for the total cluster-fuck of a launch. And, most importantly, a sales boost would be good for gamers if only to wake Sony up again. Competition is good.
 
In terms of selling systems, remasters don't have much pull at all.
They do have some pull.

I think the argument "would an exclusively marketed GTAV remaster have more pull than the exclusive Halo collection?" is a fair question. GTAV came out last year and I think a few people would jump into the remaster, similar to how Last of Us Remastered actually sold pretty decently. Halo has been on a downward trend but we'll see if a remaster brings in the numbers. Like most holiday seasons, it will be the 3rd party games that push console sales and I don't see Sony losing in that department. Didn't Madden sell more on PS4 despite the X1's exclusive bundle?
 

Biker19

Banned
In terms of selling systems, remasters don't have much pull at all.

Though GTA V would probably be a bigger pull than a collection of 4 Halo games that most people have already played to death. And you could also transfer your progress from your 360 or PS3 versions of the game onto the PS4 version (not sure about the Xbox One version).

Not saying that Halo: MCC won't do terrific (which it should), but playing GTA V in Native 1080p when most gamers have Native 1080p HDTV's & Monitors...
 
Are you counting November as being part of the first year or the first month of the second year? MCC, while it might not sell as much as a new Halo game, will probably sell a lot and get people to buy the system. That month i would say that MS will sell more consoles (as the month does not have a huge game for sony).

GTA V.

co-marketing deal

November is Sony's
 

emrober5

Member
Not a chance.

Destiny may not have been what people expected, but the bundle sold SO many ps4s.

ps4 could be close to 400k.
 

Larogue

Member
No way that can be true, but I expect it to tie on October with good chance for overcoming by November (with both Halo and sunset overdrive out).
 

Wynnebeck

Banned
Halo MCC all the way. Package contains insane value. And dont forget it contains Halo 1-2 multiplayer which you cant even play right now. This is a must buy for any halo and shooter fan. GTA5 is just a year old and still playable on old consoles and it costs full price. Real question would be, how many will go and drop 60$ on better visual of the game they already played a year ago. It has already sold 35million I think. So all the casual gamers who buy every new GTA games have already played it.

*cough*

*cough cough*

  1. Software

    1. The Last of Us (PS4, PS3)
    2. Minecraft (360, PS3)
    3. FIFA 14 (360,PS4, Xbox One, PS3, Vita)
    4. Watch Dogs (PS4, 360, PS3, Xbox One, PC)
    5. Mario Kart 8 (Wii U)
    6. Call of Duty: Ghosts (Xbox One, 360, PS4, PS3, Wii U, PC)
    7. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3)
    8. Sniper Elite III (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
    9. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PS4, Xbox One, PC)
    10. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, 3DS, DS, PS4, Wii U, Xbox One, Vita, PC)

NPD Sales Results for July 2014

Just saying. ;)
 

Teletraan1

Banned
If only Sony had updated their OS in a timely fashion they wouldn't have thrown this generation away. It goes right up there with other top blunders like $599 and RROD and 3.58MHz processors.
 
Seriously, even my cat was like "meow meow meow Xbox One will totally outsell PS4 in November meow meow meow."

Ignoring the context of this sentence makes it one of the funniest things I've read all day.

GTA V.

co-marketing deal

November is Sony's

That one multiplat remaster that's getting like zero advertising and is coming out with little to no hype vs. a major exclusive remaster with several games that's being hyped as the return of one of the greatest franchises of all time.

Sure, November is totally Sony's month.

The answer is 3 post above yours.

Difference is most TLOU copies sold to PS4 owners who didn't have a PS3 last gen and never played it before or 360 owners who upgraded to a PS4 having never played TLOU before. GTA V was multiplat, though, and it's also on Xbox One. It's really not going to do much for Sony.
 

RowdyReverb

Member
GTA V.

co-marketing deal

November is Sony's

I don't know if there's been enough time since GTA V came out for most people to want to play it again yet. I could see it selling well, but I don't see it moving consoles. Why would somebody drop $450 to play an enhanced version of a game they just played 15 months ago?
 

Biker19

Banned
If there were to be some sort of PS4 GTA5 bundle in NA, I'd think we'd have heard about it by now.

Sony's probably saving it as a surprise to throw Microsoft off guard to let them think that they don't have anything to counter Halo: MCC with.
 

NolbertoS

Member
Might want to use some Windex on that crystal ball champ.

You got me laughing at your comment in a good way. I still don't get how Pachter can get his "predictions" published on WSJ or Bloomberg and yet his gaming forecasts are totally off. i'm sure some GAFers on the NPD predict thread can get closer to actual NPD numbers without having a fancy credentials like Pachter has. If I were a stockbroker, going off his analysis, I'd be broke. If I took his analysis as reverse-predictions than we'd all be rich, but in the business world, nobody wants to be seen as a reverse prophet. Still should make for an interesting NPD
 

DrkSage

Member
I don't know if there's been enough time since GTA V came out for most people to want to play it again yet. I could see it selling well, but I don't see it moving consoles. Why would somebody drop $450 to play an enhanced version of a game they just played 15 months ago?

The answer is 3 post above yours.
scratch that. Didn't read the whole moving console part.

Why would someone drop 450$ to play an enhanced version of a game they played 15 months ago?

Well we must first take notice that there are still people that haven't made the jump to the current gen and that also there's the remaster=better mindset. Also that there's the whole save transfer from Xbox 360/ps3 to ps4.
 
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