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[CLEEK]

What I by "people who don't like halo" was people who just think it's an average game and normally wouldn't buy it.

Obviously the game is not for people who hate Halo, but there's a difference between hating and not particularly liking something.

People like me, I guess. I mean, I'm gonna have fun playing it with my friends and I'm gonna get my moneys worth out of it more than probably any other game releasing this holiday except for CoD if it's good, so when taking all that into consideration why not put $60 down on a game I don't particular like, but don't hate either?

I adore Halo - it's my all time favourite game series - and I'm still undecided whether I can justify buying an XB1+Live this year for what will become just a Halo player.

I think I'll wait until well after Chirstmas when our family finances aren't so stretched. It's one hell of an outlay for a single (well, four) game.

 

[Hindle]

Hah! Yea no. Pachter is known for being wrong the vast majority of the time often by margins far greater than the average GAF predictions. But I'm not surprised to see you making outlandish/absurd claims in defense of Xbox after the AC: Unity threads. I don't understand how you continue to get away with making absurd claims without any proof whatsoever. By all means please continue for the amusement of all.

This is the first time his predictions have been completely off base though, in the past, his numbers are wrong, but he gets it right about PS4 being number one.

I was simply trying to understand his thought process, instead of just calling him names.

 

[MRMagoo]

WTF at the "you would have more friends with a PS4 considering the 2 to 1 sales gap" comment. Just because it has a 2 to 1 gap, does not necessitate that people would have more friends on their list.

A lot of the friends on my list are people I have known for years or Xbox Live, even though I have a PS4, I would not go with PS4 only just because they have a 2 to 1 gap and I have a chance at having more friends on my list.

The whole point is statistically you would know more people with a PS4 than an Xbox one, maybe there is a chance you know more people that would not consider the PS4 but statistically if you average it out more people would know people that own a PS4 , I am not saying its is the same for every person but there is more chance because of it. If I have a bag full of coins, there where 100 gold coins and 50 solver coins, if I stuck my hand inside without looking chances are I would get a gold coin, I cant make it more simple than that........but pretty much every time I see a comment about getting a multiplat game the people that "own both" get it on Xbox one because they know more people with one, I just find that odd statistically speaking.

 

[BeforeU]

*cough*


*cough cough*



NPD Sales Results for July 2014

Just saying.

Totally different situations. For one, TLOU didnt release in a month of new COD, AC, Far Cry. And for second, TLOU did not sell anywhere close to what GTA5 sold even on only PS3. What I am trying to say is there were lot of new PS4 owners who never played TLOU. So the potential sale was there but GTA has already been played by millions of gamers just about a year ago on both console.

 

[Relativ9]

Are you counting November as being part of the first year or the first month of the second year? MCC, while it might not sell as much as a new Halo game, will probably sell a lot and get people to buy the system. That month i would say that MS will sell more consoles (as the month does not have a huge game for sony).

Well Sony might have the GTA bundle then (assuming it's not just Europe). They also have marketing deals on GTA, Dragon Age, and Far Cry. Not mention LBP3 which will appeal to parents buying Christmas presents.

But yes, if MS were to win a month this year, it'd be November.

 

[funkystudent]

There would be something great about PS4 outselling the XB1 during Titanfalls release monthy and then the XB1 outselling PS4 during Destiny's release month.

And as others have said Sony needs a right kick up the arse right now. They have clearly been slacking.



With all the free pack ins and co marketed bundles I had expected XB1 to get a 1 month lead in the US for October or November and the lack of them for PS4 but if it happened in this soon maybe Sony would get a shook and pull some rabbits out of its arse for the holiday.

 

[213372bu]

You got me laughing at your comment in a good way. I still don't get how Pachter can get his "predictions" piblished on WSJ or Bloomberg and yet his gaming forecasts are totally off. If I were a stockbroker, going off his analysis, I'd be broke. If I took his analysis as reverse-predictions than we'd all be rich, but in the business world, nobody wants to be seen as a reverse prophet. Still should make for an interesting NPD

Tbh, if you get deep in any "market" you'll see the truth behind what expected sales are and can actually come in more level-headed.

Analysts can often wrong, or they may not see the whole picture, and those that are involved more in the topic may know more of what might actually happen.

IIRC the average GAF prediction is more on the nose than Pachter, and we're just a semi-open forum where people who know nothing about sales come and post predictions.

 

[MRMagoo]

If only Sony had updated their OS in a timely fashion they wouldn't have thrown this generation away. It goes right up there with other top blunders like $599 and RROD and 3.58MHz processors.

Huh.........?

 

[TheGameChanger]

Don't Sony have a co-marketing deal for GTA V?

Isn't that out in November?

SO...which one has the bigger pull in NA? Halo or GTA?

Well that's implying that GTA is an exclusive to PS4 when it's not even close. Sony is just like Microsoft this generation so far, banking on multiplatform games by associating them with their system.

 

[LowlySmokeGuy]

I don't get why Sony needs a wake up call as many people in this thread want. They have plenty of games coming next year. I know some people are disappointed with their 2014 output, but there is nothing they can do about that right now. 2015 is rapidly approaching, and so far it looks pretty damn good for Sony as long as there isn't a bunch of delays.

 

[RowdyReverb]

The answer is 3 post above yours.

I saw that. TLoU:R selling well is not the same situation. The PS4 was selling regardless and that was pretty much the only release that month, so it was guaranteed to sell to people who bought a PS4 and needed something new to play. Like I said, GTA V will sell great on next gen, but I just don't see it being that enticing to people who haven't yet made the jump to next gen, especially when it's going up against a collection of 4 remastered games for the same price.

 

[Hawk269]

The whole point is statistically you would know more people with a PS4 than an Xbox one, maybe there is a chance you know more people that would not consider the PS4 but statistically if you average it out more people would know people that own a PS4 , I am not saying its is the same for every person but there is more chance because of it. If I have a bag full of coins, there where 100 gold coins and 50 solver coins, if I stuck my hand inside without looking chances are I would get a gold coin, I cant make it more simple than that........but pretty much every time I see a comment about getting a multiplat game the people that "own both" get it on Xbox one because they know more people with one, I just find that odd statistically speaking.

Believe it or not, some people have built long standing friendships with people on their friends list on both networks. The fact the some people decide to get a MP game on one or the other due to friends is because they have a long lasting relationship through whatever network. For me, I have people on Live that I have been friends with for 11 years and we game a lot together over Live.

So to discount that for a reason because of a 2 to 1 sales gap is not whatit really is about. I have family members that are only on PSN since the launch of the PS3 and they continue with that on the PS4. At times, I will buy MP games on my Xbox One over the PS4 due to certain friends and/or family members that also have live.

Many of my real life gamer friends have both systems and a lot of them tend to go with the Xbox One version of certain MP games because they have had longer lasting friends with Live over PSN, even though they have a PS4.

 

[killatopak]

Totally different situations. For one, TLOU didnt release in a month of new COD, AC, Far Cry. And for second, TLOU did not sell anywhere close to what GTA5 sold even on only PS3. What I am trying to say is there were lot of new PS4 owners who never played TLOU. So the potential sale was there but GTA has already been played by millions of gamers just about a year ago on both console.

You're severely underestimating GTA.

I know it's anecdotal but I know a lot of people who didn't buy GTAV because of the frame rate and the promise of the remastered version.

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

Halo MCC all the way. Package contains insane value..

If overdelivering on value was all it took, X1 would've skyrocketed ahead in the US a long time ago.

But as it stands ...

So the potential sale was there but GTA has already been played by millions of gamers just about a year ago on both console.

Tens of millions buy "pretty much the same game" year after year in the form of FIFA, Madden, CoD, Battlefield, etc.

Don't see why it makes any difference if a lot of people played GTAV last year.

 

[tuna_love]

Well Sony might have the GTA bundle then (assuming it's not just Europe). They also have marketing deals on GTA, Dragon Age, and Far Cry. Not mention LBP3 which will appeal to parents buying Christmas presents.

But yes, if MS were to win a month this year, it'd be November.

Dragon age is MS

 

[Relativ9]

Dragon age is MS

Aah right, my bad. Point still stands though, if slightly diminished.

 

[Officerrob]

I don't get why Sony needs a wake up call as many people in this thread want. They have plenty of games coming next year. I know some people are disappointed with their 2014 output, but there is nothing they can do about that right now. 2015 is rapidly approaching, and so far it looks pretty damn good for Sony as long as there isn't a bunch of delays.

The state of PSN and the severe lack of PSN updates are much bigger issues than the first party output that will no doubt get better

 

[Wynnebeck]

Totally different situations. For one, TLOU didnt release in a month of new COD, AC, Far Cry. And for second, TLOU did not sell anywhere close to what GTA5 sold even on only PS3. What I am trying to say is there were lot of new PS4 owners who never played TLOU. GTA5 has been played by millions of gamers just about a year ago on both console.

SO you are basically saying the only reason TLOU sold so well is because it was released during the summer and that there is no one left who hasn't played GTA5 yet or wants to play it again on new hardware?

 

[213372bu]

If overdelivering on value was all it took, X1 would've skyrocketed ahead in the US a long time ago.

But as it stands ...

Value is in the eye of the beholder.

People who like multi-plat games would have more "value" on a ~$100 cheaper console that can theoretically perform that game better in every way besides "spherical lighting".

Even at price parity or slightly below, PS4 could very well still have the better value.

 

[FairXchange]

Pachter has had a bad string of predictions lately, I doubt he'd want to miss with this one. I believe it could be true.

 

[plasmawave]

If only Sony had updated their OS in a timely fashion they wouldn't have thrown this generation away. It goes right up there with other top blunders like $599 and RROD and 3.58MHz processors.

OS, such serious business.

 

[killatopak]

Pachter has had a bad string of predictions forever, I doubt he'd want to miss with this one. I believe it could be true.

FIFY

 

[loaf of bread]

I think people are grossly overestimating the impact that MCC will have. Its exclusive. Its a remaster. Its coming out the same day as Assassins Creed, a week after Call of Duty, and a week before Far Cry 4 and GTA. It has TON of competition. Its a great deal but at least from what i've seen from people I know, the more mainstream casual crowd that makes up the bulk of sales for games like Halo and Cod isn't incredibly interested in replaying games theyve already played. I think the only reason TLOU remaster did good was because it was in the middle of the summer when there were no other games, not in the busiest month of the year.

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

Value is in the eye of the beholder.

People who like multi-plat games would have more "value" on a ~$100 cheaper console that can theoretically perform that game better in every way besides "spherical lighting".

Even at price parity or slightly below, PS4 could very well still have the better value.

Sure, but the arguement here is that there's so much value that the Halo MCC will cause X1 sales to skyrocket. I don't see why it would cause X1 sales to skyrocket any more than GTAV would cause PS4 sales to skyrocket. In other words, I'd bet that Halo MCC and GTAV-PS4 will more or less cancel eachother out in sales in November, setting aside my other bet that "new" games like Far Cry 4 will be handily outselling both in November.

 

[Biker19]

I don't get why Sony needs a wake up call as many people in this thread want. They have plenty of games coming next year. I know some people are disappointed with their 2014 output, but there is nothing they can do about that right now. 2015 is rapidly approaching, and so far it looks pretty damn good for Sony as long as there isn't a bunch of delays.

I know. These people seem to think that they're a software company like Microsoft is. This stuff takes time to input into newer hardware, after all.

 

[kyser73]

Well that's implying that GTA is an exclusive to PS4 when it's not even close. Sony is just like Microsoft this generation so far, banking on multiplatform games by associating them with their system.

I think my post is pretty clear that GTA V is a co-marketing deal, and has no implication that it's an exclusive.

 

[LowlySmokeGuy]

The state of PSN and the severe lack of PSN updates are much bigger issues than the first party output that will no doubt get better

That's true. Didn't really think about that. Hopefully they will eventually learn though if stuff like the Driveclub launch persists with their other games.

 

[darkside31337]

Obviously the XB1 has a stronger fall exclusive lineup this holiday season but I don't really think its going to matter much. Much in the way that the 360 become the de facto choice for 3rd party games last gen it seems like the PS4 has already done that this gen. It gets to a point where exclusives don't even matter because people aren't buying consoles just for exclusives (Wii U sales are terrible for a reason).

MS was smart enough to try to nip that in the bud as quickly as possible where they could (although they should have probably dropped the price and gutted the Kinect even sooner), which is something the PS3 could never do, but I guess we'll see if it was too late or not. The split on Destiny sales should really tell a fair bit.

If there was a month where I thought XB1 could outsell PS4 though it would have been in August due to things like the Madden bundle.

 

[RowdyReverb]

SO you are basically saying the only reason TLOU sold so well is because it was released during the summer and that there is no one left who hasn't played GTA5 yet or wants to play it again on new hardware?

Yes, people will buy GTA V again to play it on new hardware, but the lion's share of these people are proud owners of the new hardware. The question is, will people who already played GTA V be suddenly willing to shell out $400 for said new hardware because of the rerelease of a year-old game?

 

[StoopKid]

If only Sony had updated their OS in a timely fashion they wouldn't have thrown this generation away. It goes right up there with other top blunders like $599 and RROD and 3.58MHz processors.

I honestly can't even tell if your joking or not.

 

[RowdyReverb]

Its a great deal but at least from what i've seen from people I know, the more mainstream casual crowd that makes up the bulk of sales for games like Halo and Cod isn't incredibly interested in replaying games theyve already played.

You realize that these are the same people who buy essentially the same CoD game every year

 

[Wynnebeck]

Yes, people will buy GTA V again to play it on new hardware, but the lion's share of these people are proud owners of the new hardware. The question is, will people who already played GTA V be suddenly willing to shell out $400 for said new hardware because of the rerelease of a year-old game?

Will the people who just switched over from 360 to PS4 be willing to shell out $399 for a new console to play a collection of four old games, the last of which was released just a little under 2 years ago? If TLOU is any indicaation, it's that people will pay a high price for a remaster of a highly lauded and critically perceived game, eg. Tomb Raider Definitive Edition. Sony tapping into the association of GTA with Playstation just like back in the old days is going to push people to jump along with al the other big multis coming out. I'd put more stock in GTAV selling more PS4s than MCC selling Xbones.

 

[kyser73]

Yes, people will buy GTA V again to play it on new hardware, but the lion's share of these people are proud owners of the new hardware. The question is, will people who already played GTA V be suddenly willing to shell out $400 for said new hardware because of the rerelease of a year-old game?

How many existing Xbone owners will have bought it in anticipation of some Halo-remastered goodness? Why will paying $400 for a compilation of games up to a decade old have so much more pull into buying a system?

 

[BeforeU]

SO you are basically saying the only reason TLOU sold so well is because it was released during the summer and that there is no one left who hasn't played GTA5 yet or wants to play it again on new hardware?

Way to overlook my entire post. Looks like you just wanted to post this gif lol.

Anyways yes if the TLOU was released in Nov with COD, AC and Far Cry it wouldn't have sold as much as it would. For obvious reason.

1). If I can only afford one game this month. Should I buy the game I played few month ago again for the same price. Or buy the new game?

Now in case of TLOU potential sale was there, because there were lot of 360 gamers who switched to PS4 and never had chance to play before. On top of that word of mouth was strong. And on top of that great release date.

GTA is a huge franchise but if you play on console any game. Even if you buy a game once a year. Chances are you already played GTA5. There might be some people who waited a year and there will be many hardcore fans who will double dip. But no its not going to be as big as people make it out to be.

 

[CLEEK]

I honestly can't even tell if your joking or not.

It's drawn a blank with me too. If it's making a reference to something, it's a pop culture meme I'm not ware of. 3.58MHZ what?

RE: GTA V and anecdotal evidence

I assumed a PS4 version would eventually appear, so didn't play it last gen. I have an XB1 owning colleague who felt the same. We'll both buy it for the first time.

 

[TomShoe]

Anyways yes if the TLOU was released in Nov with COD, AC and Far Cry it wouldn't have sold as much as it would. For obvious reason.

I hate to speculate, but given that The Last of Us won 200+ GOTY awards, it probably would have sold well regardless of when it was released.

 

[pr0cs]

I would like to see it to be true, it feels to me like Sony is just sitting back and has been for the last 6 months, maybe a shock would force them to step up.
I just don't see it though unfortunately, I can't see Pachter being close on this one.

 

[neogaffer1]

Well we must first take notice that there are still people that haven't made the jump to the current gen and that also there's the remaster=better mindset. Also that there's the whole save transfer from Xbox 360/ps3 to ps4.

That's for both consoles:

360 to One
PS3 to PS4
360 to PS4
PS3 to One

 

[Metalingus5150]

I think the PS4 will win every month the rest of this year.

 

[Wynnebeck]

I hate to speculate, but given that The Last of Us won 200+ GOTY awards, it probably would have sold well regardless of when it was released.

Ding ding.

 

[TheGameChanger]

I think my post is pretty clear that GTA V is a co-marketing deal, and has no implication that it's an exclusive.

Yes I know but I am trying to say that it won't have the same impact as an actual exclusive as big as Halo. If it does, then I assume most people picking up Ps4's are casual gamers.

Spoiler

Not that there is anything wrong with that

.

 

[Hindle]

I think a combination of Halo, Cod, AC Unity, SO, plus bundles and deals could see MS take November and December. But September is highly unlikely, For October it depends on how SO is received.

 

[Dragonborn]

Are you counting November as being part of the first year or the first month of the second year? MCC, while it might not sell as much as a new Halo game, will probably sell a lot and get people to buy the system. That month i would say that MS will sell more consoles (as the month does not have a huge game for sony).

I feel the MCC will be much like TF. As in, people who want it likely already own an X1 and it won't provide much of a hardware boost (though the game itself will sell very well).

Sony has GTAV, and really that's all they need. Bundle GTAV + PS4 for BF, as well as LBP3 + PS4 for the family audience and they're set. As I said, most of the scenarios that have MS winning just assume that Sony won't do anything at all.

Besides, MS has already tried all sorts of crazy bundles, giving out multiple games, giving out XBL money, etc. and that hasn't done anything. I don't see why November would all of a sudden be different.

You seem so sure. Care to place some sort of wager on that?

Winner gets bragging rights is the best I can do, haha. Honestly, I could be wrong, I don't have a crystal ball. It's just my view on things.

 

[StoopKid]

Ignoring the context of this sentence makes it one of the funniest things I've read all day.

That one multiplat remaster that's getting like zero advertising and is coming out with little to no hype vs. a major exclusive remaster with several games that's being hyped as the return of one of the greatest franchises of all time.

Sure, November is totally Sony's month.

Difference is most TLOU copies sold to PS4 owners who didn't have a PS3 last gen and never played it before or 360 owners who upgraded to a PS4 having never played TLOU before. GTA V was multiplat, though, and it's also on Xbox One. It's really not going to do much for Sony.

Gta has no hype ?Give me a break

 

[Pathfinder]

Winner gets bragging rights is the best I can do, haha. Honestly, I could be wrong, I don't have a crystal ball. It's just my view on things.

Nah, bragging rights is too pedestrian. Let's do something fun.

If you end up being wrong, you have to get an "I Believe in Phil Spencer" tag for your avatar here for six months.

 

[CoG]

I think a combination of Halo, Cod, AC Unity, SO, plus bundles and deals could see MS take November and December. But September is highly unlikely, For October it depends on how SO is received.

SO will get buried no matter how well it reviews.

 

[BeforeU]

I hate to speculate, but given that The Last of Us won 200+ GOTY awards, it probably would have sold well regardless of when it was released.

For new buyers yes. It would have sold regardless of when it releases. But if you are double dipping. Those 200+ awards or how good the game is doesnt really matter because you have already played it. And you are voting with your wallet. Should I buy new games which are coming out or should I buy TLOU which I love but I just played it. Just think about it. Simple logic.

 

[scoobs]

I think the PS4 will win every month the rest of this year.

I'd be shocked if this weren't the case. Are we just assuming nobody is buying ps4's for Destiny/Madden/Fifa, only xb1's? Cuz... those are multiplat games and multiplat has sold better on PS4 for an entire year now. What has changed?

 

[Hindle]

SO will get buried no matter how well it reviews.

Theres a bundle coming, and I expect MS to give the game a decently sized marketing campaign. Borderlands sold well, SO could as well.

 

[neogaffer1]

Gta has no hype ?Give me a break

The next-gen remaster? There hasn't been much, not on the level of most other releases at least. Sure, there's people who are like "oh it's coming out for new gen? sure I'll buy it." But almost nobody on the level of "Fucking hype, can't wait to get it, I'll definitely buy a new console for it" like there was for Destiny or even MCC. Hell, even FH2 and Driveclub had more hype than GTA V has at this point.