Patrick Bateman
Member
NK CAN'T attack first. It would be over for them.
The only thing they have is the threat and the knowledge that China would only back them as long as they don't attack the US.
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China warns North Korea: Youre on your own if you go after the United States
- Thread starter Piecake
- Start date
NK CAN'T attack first. It would be over for them.
The only thing they have is the threat and the knowledge that China would only back them as long as they don't attack the US.
Lonewulfeus
Member
Said it wasn't easy but it's still the best option for everyone who isn't Un
I'm not saying change the culture overnight but done organically, over time, could help with the brainwashing.
Bobnob
Member
Lol mate, at this point im sure you're trolling hahahaha!
StrategyFan
Member
looks like NK has gone back to the usual rhetoric of threatening to reduce the US (mainland) to rubble, which may be a sign that things are deescalating
Imperfected
Member
The bizarre "diplomatic" scenario where threatening to consume vast swathes of civilian populaces in hellfire is a deescalation from threatening a tactical assault on a militarily logical target.
I suppose the plus side is that Trump is too stupid to really comprehend how fucked up this situation is. If he were a little bit smarter, he'd probably be a whole lot angrier.
Angrier about what? NK literally says in their state news propaganda channel that they criticize the threat of preemptive strike and will retaliate if that happens.
Totally legitimate according to international law. What countries should just let themselves be threatened by the US now and they can't even say anything about it?
I literally do not understand how you can objectively think NK is the aggressor in this specific conflict. That argument only works with Japan or SK where there have been some incidents with fishing boats and that day NK randomly decided to mortar a SK island (iirc). Can't believe they got away with the latter one.
Imperfected
Member
You don't understand how threatening to destroy civilian centers with nuclear weapons is a thing you aren't supposed to do? That just because we've allowed North Korea to behave this way for decades because they didn't actually have the capability to act on those threats doesn't make the threats themselves any less repugnant and completely, flagrantly against every iota of international law of war and general standards of diplomacy?
Do you need a children's book explanation, or can you just read that sentence a few times and maybe get a full grasp of it?
The US thinks those are actual threats because it actually wants to invade the country. Why else would you be concerned?
Oh but no only the IDEA that the mighty United State Union could ever be attacked itself and not be allowed to play boss over poor countries...the arrogance.
Just look at your own words 'we've allowed'. You really think you are a Roman from Rome? Allowing the barbarians just outside empire to do this or that.
Imperfected
Member
Jesus Fucking Christ.
If Donald Trump said, "The mighty United States will flatten North Korea in a nuclear firestorm. Every man, woman and child in Pyongyang will be a flash-burned ghost scarred into irradiated pavement," then everyone in the fucking world would condemn him for it because threatening to attack a population center as an opening bid to hostilities makes you the worst sort of asshole in history.
If you can't grasp the distinction here, and why everyone is so upset with Trump that the rhetoric he's used has even slipped ambiguously toward the sort of vile behavior Pyongyang's been passing as "diplomacy" for the past three decades, I'm done talking to you.
Only the US here from all countries involved in the NK case, has argued for preemptively striking NK. So only the US has done true threatening of another country. Saying you will fire back is not a threat. It's repeating the obvious.
dragonelite
Member
How did the US feels in the Cuban missile crisis or what if China and Russia have bases in Mexico close to the US border?
I personally wouldn't be surprised if in 20~30 years China also creates its version of the Monroe doctrine.
andythinkpad
Member
US should have done preemptive strike on NK nuclear facility a long time ago. Both Obama and Bush should have done it and didn't because they didn't bother to pay the political capital to acquire a sanction from China.
Even if they were successful, hundreds of thousands of South Koreans would be killed or gravely injured by artillery and short range rockets.
There's no right answer to this.
andythinkpad
Member
I am talking about a surgical strike, like the one Israeli did on Iraq.
Do you really think NK would just accept that? They've not done anything aside from rattling sabers.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Difference is North Korea have been preparing for decades. As much people like to think so they're not fools. They haven't been around this long by chance. China would come to their aid anyway.
Every single move North Korea is done has insured any such invasion or military agression would be a shit show. The liked of which we probably haven't seen since WWII now that nukes are involved.
There is. It's called continued diplomacy and talks.
Military action as you say is only going to lead to the deaths of hundereds of thousands of innocent people BOTH sides of the border.
andythinkpad
Member
NK doesn't matter if China approves. You have to give up something for China to cooperate. For example, reduce or close US base in SK for a start. Or stop selling weapons to Taiwan.
China's previous leader was much easier to talk to than Xi. Right now China has a hard nose president, plus much better cards in their hands (naval power etc) you would have to pay a higher price to get a China sanction.
Nobody would be able to pull it off, probably not even Bush Sr. I am sure Trump will fuck this up.
I think you really overestimate the control that China has over NK. They couldn't get them to stop their nuclear program, I seriously doubt that they can stop them from retaliating to a US attack.
andythinkpad
Member
If US pay the price for China's approval, pray tell, how do NK retaliate after US take out NK's nuclear and missile sites? You got to draw the map for me.
Here you go.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would-retaliate
That's without Nuclear Weapons.
And your idea of precision strikes is absurd because the likelihood is that they're mobile anyway.
China do not want US dominance in the region and they certainly don't want a US controlled Korea on their border.
Precision strikes have always been a nonsense proposal since NK has mobile launchers and underground bunkers the US doesn't know of or might not be able to crack without nuclear bunker busters.
Any military action in NK required troops on the ground not only to defend SK from the inevitable invasion but also to disable their nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles.
Thankfully US generals know this and have accepted it unlike some armchair generals on Gaf.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/...paign=New Campaign&utm_term=*Situation Report
Any military action in NK required troops on the ground not only to defend SK from the inevitable invasion but also to disable their nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles.
Thankfully US generals know this and have accepted it unlike some armchair generals on Gaf.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/...paign=New Campaign&utm_term=*Situation Report
andythinkpad
Member
I didn't say the price is low. US has to make significant concession in SK and TW to get a deal from China.
If you take out the nuclear facility you don't have to worry about the mobile launcher. If Bush and Obama did it earlier they didn't have mobile launcher.
It's an absolutely terrible idea regardless. Seriously, they have no expansionist polices. They have deterrence and posturing. Nothing more.
Razgriz-Specter
Member
Umm no.
North Korea has routinely threatened the US and allies for years unprovoked.
They sank a damn SK ship and they have shelled SK territory in the past(killing soldiers and civilians).
They threaten nukes just because the South Koreans go and do annual training with the US Navy.
Aztechnology
Member
Here how about this China. You actually let us put missile defense systems in South Korea. At least for a start, eventually though we have to do something about NK. Final victory is their entire ideology.
andythinkpad
Member
They shouldn't have nuclear deterrence in the first place. Things gotten developed to this point because George W was obsessed with Middle East; Obama was too young and an all around inexperienced international geopolitical player; and Trump is a basically Joffrey with more yelling.
Oh btw why didn't economic sanction work on NK? because China never seriously sanctioned NK's secondary import/exports.
Frankly, unless you're willing to engage in a war of aggression then it was inevitable. North Korea's position is understandable.
China's relationship with North Korea is becoming increasingly strained, but it is not desirable for them to have an even more unstable Korea nor is it desirable for them to have the US start a war in their backyard. It would be disasterous for the entire region and the economy itself.
We can speculate what would happen, but we know for a fact that it wasn't the fear of Chinese reprisal that stop the US from attacking North Korea.
THAAD is deployed in South Korea. I mean yeah, China bitched about it, but they prevent that (nor could they, at least without going to war).
Containing North Korea is the only way forward. China knows perfectly well how hard it is to do so, but the catastrophic consequences that would follow if we choose to ignore it will impact not only the region, but the entire world - forever. We do not have a good grasp on the location of many of the arms facilities that are hidden from plain sight, so if we were to take military action, the only option would be a nuclear strike to completely neutralize the threat. Such an action would of course have catastrophic consequences, and is why it should only be reserved for self defence against a nuclear power, based on MAD.
Now, the rhetoric is strong from all sides, but all actors are rational and aware of the grotesque consequences that nuclear fallout would entail. Trump is reckless, but even he should know that a nuclear world war would be devestating. What all sides are doing is that they are projecting strength and posture. The rhetorical dynamics at play are succinct, but the actors that project them carry great responsibility, not only to their own people, but to the entire world.
Case in point, nothing's going to happen if no one actually does anything irrational beyond the posturing. The uncertain variable however is Donald Trump. If North Korea pushes the right buttons and continues to humiliate him on the world stage, I don't want to think about what Trump is actually capable of doing. He knows that he's setting a precedent, and partners and adversaries alike are all watching and analyzing how that very question will unfold.
Now, the rhetoric is strong from all sides, but all actors are rational and aware of the grotesque consequences that nuclear fallout would entail. Trump is reckless, but even he should know that a nuclear world war would be devestating. What all sides are doing is that they are projecting strength and posture. The rhetorical dynamics at play are succinct, but the actors that project them carry great responsibility, not only to their own people, but to the entire world.
Case in point, nothing's going to happen if no one actually does anything irrational beyond the posturing. The uncertain variable however is Donald Trump. If North Korea pushes the right buttons and continues to humiliate him on the world stage, I don't want to think about what Trump is actually capable of doing. He knows that he's setting a precedent, and partners and adversaries alike are all watching and analyzing how that very question will unfold.
Aztechnology
Member
I thought they had suspended it?
I hope NK's missile guidance systems are solid. If they decide to fire a few test missiles 'in the direction of' Guam like they have been towards Japan, itd be a nightmare if they accidentally landed within territorial waters. NK is too proud to apologise, so theyd probably double down with harsh words, and Trump may get trigger happy
Ichabod
Banned
China: Nobody's gonna hurt anybody. We're gonna be like three little Fonzies here. And what's Fonzie like? Come on NK, what's Fonzie like?
NK: Cool?
China: What?
NK: He's cool.
China: Correctamundo. And that's what we're gonna be. We're gonna be cool. Now NK, I'm gonna count to three, and when I count three, you let go of your gun, and sit your ass down. But when you do it, you do it cool. Ready? One... two... three.
NK: Cool?
China: What?
NK: He's cool.
China: Correctamundo. And that's what we're gonna be. We're gonna be cool. Now NK, I'm gonna count to three, and when I count three, you let go of your gun, and sit your ass down. But when you do it, you do it cool. Ready? One... two... three.
Coriolanus
Banned
things got developed to this point because the country has held Seoul hostage for decades with conventional artillery. There's shitall anyone can do about that without risking that city and the millions within it.
The nuclear program was kicked into overdrive right after GWB invaded Iraq, precisely to act as additional deterrence in case any fucknut got the idea that Oh Hey, Maybe We Can Let Seoul Pay The Price After All. Obama couldn't stop it without, once again, risking Seoul.
PabloBolivar
Banned
This isn't good for anyone.
The good thing is that now NK will never launch another missile.
Japan and S. Korea must feel good about that.
The good thing is that now NK will never launch another missile.
Japan and S. Korea must feel good about that.
They'll still launch test missiles. They have the right to do so.
andythinkpad
Member
NK has to sell its coal to China. Coal doesn't turn into food inside NK.
andythinkpad
Member
What? Which care bear new station are you listening to. NK can call Trump bluff tomorrow and launch a missile.
theignoramus
Member
Doesnt this officially put any US strategy for "preemptive" war off the table? China is saying it would support NK if the US strikes first, thats kind of a game changer.
RumbleHumble
Banned
It's why Trump's shifted to Venezuela.
I don't think preemptive war was ever on the table.
The risk to SK and Japan is too big
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Not really shocking though, China defended NK before.
There is no such thing as a surgical strike. What would happen is that North Korea would have to respond to something like that with military force, and the only military option they have is an all-out war. Limited military strikes are only effective when you're facing an enemy with a more flexible range of options.
They could have also relaunched the Korean War any time in the last sixty years. They haven't done so for a reason, and this reason is also why they're not launching missiles at anyone either.
Here's where it helps that this isn't coming from an official communication. China doesn't want to enter into a war with the US, but they also don't want the US to go and attack North Korea. This way they make it seem as if they're behind North Korea if it gets attacked, but they're not actually committing themselves to doing anything.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
If the US attacks first you'd end up having a US controlled country right on China's border. You expect them to stay neutral in that case lol.
I wouldn't be surprised at all. As long as China is not physically endangered, there's no percentage for them to actually go to war with the US. They'd do everything in terms of rhetoric and diplomatic pressure to prevent any conflict in the peninsula, but they're not going to want to employ military force. Obviously, China can't come out and say that because it'd undermine their official position, but that's probably the game they're playing.
The Real Abed
Perma-Junior
North Korea is that spoiled child in Walmart whose mother (China) wont buy him a toy so he screams and yells and threatens passers by. If the US hits back, of course the mother is gonna scream foul. But she doesn't give a shit if he starts fighting with you. She's busy looking for the right tampons.
Or something.
andythinkpad
Member
Don't be stupid. China will push immediately from the west side and establish 100 mile wide "refuge camp zone" across the Sino-Korean border. China won't let US have a say in the leadership selection of the new united government either. China already has a pretty
good influence on the South Korea's current elected center-left government.
I guess you didn't learn about the Korean War and Vietnam War in the school you go to?