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[CzarTim]

Like honestly, let's walk this through:

Palmer is sk. Night 1 he choses not to take his action because ??? Like night 1 is the safest time to act because you have the lowest chance of getting caught. But whatever. N1 mafia and LoC kill LoC and swamped respectively. Night 2 Palmer finally decides to kill, he choses TB. Mafia either don't kill, get rb'd, also chose TB, or doctor got lucky.

Palmer as a 3P isn't a bad detain choice, I just don't think he's sk and thus we gain nothing from flipping him. He's an easy choice for mafia to latch their votes onto.

 

[raindoc]

okay, let's let the neutral live. who shall we kill? our second armorer, or our second investigator.

ffs, people, ffs.

 

[CzarTim]

I'm not saying there isn't a sk, just that Palmer is likely not him. I can not imagine a scenario where the sk would withhold a kill night one unless he had a lot of heat on him, which Palmer did not. I guess if sk had a limited use? But that doesn't explain 1 nk last night. And even if Setre was Hutt, he'd have no reason to protect Palmer especially when exposing a sk would give him credibility. I'd sooner believe Palmer is a hutt.

I don't think we should detain QB today, I think he should shield someone tomorrow and one of the two shielded people (whoever feels more expendable) should confirm him. I don't think anyone is pushing Setre at this point.

Honestly detaining a mafia is rarely going to feel like a slam dunk, at some point we're going to have to suck it up and vote someone we aren't sure about but rubs us the wrong way.

 

[AbsolutBro]

So you say... I voted for you to get info as well. I got plenty.

This is the post that makes me fairly certain that LoC is the one who took out swamped. Day 1 seems like a good time to use some one-shot powers in case, as with LoC, you are gone after Night 1. LoC also had to know he was making a lot of noise, something he himself stated gets people killed.

 

[Palmer_v1]

The reason i use N1 as my sole reason for not being a serial killer is that a serial killer MUST act each night. It's possible im somehing else, but i cant be a serial killer if we believe setre.

 

[Barrylocke]

The reason i use N1 as my sole reason for not being a serial killer is that a serial killer MUST act each night. It's possible im somehing else, but i cant be a serial killer if we believe setre.

While I believe in your claims, I'm certain I've been in at least one game where the choice to kill was at the discretion of the player. The Night 1 stuff does put you in a much better light (especially since as was pointed out night 1 is a very volatile time), but it's not quite an "all clear" piece of evidence.

 

[raindoc]

The reason i use N1 as my sole reason for not being a serial killer is that a serial killer MUST act each night. It's possible im somehing else, but i cant be a serial killer if we believe setre.

since when? what weird werwolf games are you guys playing?

 

[CzarTim]

Yeah sk doesn't always have to kill each night.

 

[OceanicAir]

This is the post that makes me fairly certain that LoC is the one who took out swamped. Day 1 seems like a good time to use some one-shot powers in case, as with LoC, you are gone after Night 1. LoC also had to know he was making a lot of noise, something he himself stated gets people killed.

He also thought that Zipped was worthy enough to be vote after he posted that here. The main three suspects were Worthy, exmachina, and Zipped on day 1. Why not kill one of them since they would obviously be up under more scrutiny on day 2?

The reason i use N1 as my sole reason for not being a serial killer is that a serial killer MUST act each night. It's possible im somehing else, but i cant be a serial killer if we believe setre.

That is if we believe Setre because why would you call out Setre's potential lie and admit that you moved at night since that would make you a large target? Also how are you supposed to defend/be a bodyguard for anybody if can't do any night actions?

 

[Barrylocke]

18 are alive, so 10 to lynch

Palmer_v1(3): TheWorthyEdge, QuantamBro, raindoc

Quantambro(2): Quantambro, traube

Setre(1): Zubz , Quantambro , Makai

ejawa(1): Barrylocke

OceanicAir(1): traube, Palmer_v1

redhood56(0): johnnyquicknives

 

[Barrylocke]

18 are alive, so 10 to lynch

Palmer_v1(3): TheWorthyEdge, QuantamBro, raindoc

Quantambro(2): ejawa, traube

Setre(1): Zubz , Quantambro , Makai

ejawa(1): Barrylocke

OceanicAir(1): traube, Palmer_v1

redhood56(0): johnnyquicknives

Whoops.

 

[CzarTim]

I don't think Setre is lying about his role. Mafia have no reason to protect a sk like that. Setre would have been taking a big chance that Palmer wouldn't have turned on him saying he did use a night action. ejawa too. It would make more sense if both Palmer and Setre were Hutts than Palmer being sk. And Palmer was the one pushing for the Setre vote yesterday.

This isn't saying Setre is 100% town, but that I don't think think he's lying about his results.

Read this role http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Unlyncher

And go read Palmer's posts from the beginning and tell me if it doesn't fit. I think it does.

The only thing I'm unsure of, because I've never seen these roles used before, is if an Unlyncher always/usually comes with a Lyncher in the game. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lyncher

 

[johnnyquicknives]

Read this role http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Unlyncher

And go read Palmer's posts from the beginning and tell me if it doesn't fit. I think it does.

The only thing I'm unsure of, because I've never seen these roles used before, is if an Unlyncher always/usually comes with a Lyncher in the game. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lyncher

I still don't really get why it's a neutral rather than a Town role if Palmer has been told he is protecting a Rebel. I think that either he doesn't know the persons alignment or he didn't originally but feels he has worked it out now.

 

[CzarTim]

I still don't really get why it's a neutral rather than a Town role if Palmer has been told he is protecting a Rebel. I think that either he doesn't know the persons alignment or he didn't originally but feels he has worked it out now.

It seems like a role specifically designed to confuse town, which it obviously did. The wiki says 3p though.

 

[Barrylocke]

I really don't like the idea of killing a potential 2nd armorer when the only argument for it is "because it doesn't work with the balance". I also don't like the idea of killing Palmer right now when many of his actions do seem to match his partial claim.

I feel way more comfortable with my ejawa vote than any of these more spotlighted players of the day. The fact that ejawa voted for quantambro is certainly feeding my beliefs, if nothing else.

 

[CzarTim]

I still don't really get why it's a neutral rather than a Town role if Palmer has been told he is protecting a Rebel. I think that either he doesn't know the persons alignment or he didn't originally but feels he has worked it out now.

Actually, Palmer, does your role pm 100% confirm the alignment of the person?

 

[Barrylocke]

I still don't really get why it's a neutral rather than a Town role if Palmer has been told he is protecting a Rebel. I think that either he doesn't know the persons alignment or he didn't originally but feels he has worked it out now.

It makes sense to me. It would be specifically so that their victory is tied to the survival of that person, not the wiping out of the mafia. The only part that threw me off when considering it's validity is whether the mafia winning with the person still alive would still count as a win. Kind of like the role of being a survivor, but it's the survival of another person instead of yourself.

Not all 3rd party roles are as much of an enemy to the town as a Serial Killer.

 

[Palmer_v1]

It seems like a role specifically designed to confuse town, which it obviously did. The wiki says 3p though.

It couldn't be a rebel because all rebels share the same goal, eliminate Hutts to win. Rebels might have early DEATH conditions, like Zubs/TWE, but they can always win post mortem if the Hutts are eliminated.

It's like having another rebel, but with a handicap.

Same for Undercover Imperials. Ther are probably at least 5 Hutts, but since two couldn't communicate with the other 3(or more), it functions as a balance.

 

[OceanicAir]

I don't think Setre is lying about his role. Mafia have no reason to protect a sk like that. Setre would have been taking a big chance that Palmer wouldn't have turned on him saying he did use a night action. ejawa too. It would make more sense if both Palmer and Setre were Hutts than Palmer being sk. And Palmer was the one pushing for the Setre vote yesterday.

This isn't saying Setre is 100% town, but that I don't think think he's lying about his results.

Well at this stage a serial killer is more likely to kill a rebel than a mafia and that would help shorten the game which is what the mafia want. Again, I don't think that people would admit to a night action as that would bring more attention to themselves buuuuuut...

Read this role http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Unlyncher

And go read Palmer's posts from the beginning and tell me if it doesn't fit. I think it does.

The only thing I'm unsure of, because I've never seen these roles used before, is if an Unlyncher always/usually comes with a Lyncher in the game. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lyncher

this is a much more valid explanation as to how Setre's and Palmer's story could coexist. If it is true than that would be a lousy role, how is Palmer supposed to defend anybody? And what happens if they are night killed?

 

[Palmer_v1]

It makes sense to me. It would be specifically so that their victory is tied to the survival of that person, not the wiping out of the mafia. The only part that threw me off when considering it's validity is whether the mafia winning with the person still alive would still count as a win. Kind of like the role of being a survivor, but it's the survival of another person instead of yourself.

Not all 3rd party roles are as much of an enemy to the town as a Serial Killer.

It's not really the survivor role. If Mafia wins, they still go on to kill all other non-mafia. Survivors just need to last until round X, then actually escape and leave the game.

 

[CzarTim]

Palmer, please answer:

Actually, Palmer, does your role pm 100% confirm the alignment of the person?

 

[Palmer_v1]

Well at this stage a serial killer is more likely to kill a rebel than a mafia and that would help shorten the game which is what the mafia want. Again, I don't think that people would admit to a night action as that would bring more attention to themselves buuuuuut...

this is a much more valid explanation as to how Setre's and Palmer's story could coexist. If it is true than that would be a lousy role, how is Palmer supposed to defend anybody? And what happens if they are night killed?

That's an interesting point. Sort of like how an Undercover Imperial wouldn't out themselves to expose Blargonaut, someone who took a night action might be willing to let a fake claim cover for their abilities. I have no idea why Setre would do that, though, cause it just puts himself in danger. He could also be telling the truth about his role, but lying about the result only, in an effort to protect a power role until he knows what team it's on.

I still just think he's inexperienced and not lying, though.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Palmer, please answer:

Sorry, I answered that previously. My role does not guarantee they're Rebel aligned, but I do know their Role name, and player name. The role name is a very strong indicator of their alignment.

I am not giving that part away, for entirely selfish reasons. This way, none of you can feel entirely safe about detaining me, since you may be losing your protector.

As a reminder, the useful bits of my role are redacted on my reveal.

 

[CzarTim]

Okay, sorry I missed it.

Moving on, Oceanic Air's idea of contributing is mostly questioning a nk on day 1 and he has barely posted any actual opinions on who he thinks is scum, so...

Vote: OceanicAir

 

[OceanicAir]

That was a crazy night yesterday if am to believe everything that everybody said at least. I really hope that LoC was the reason (even though I still have my doubts because why would town blindly shoot at night?) why to people died on the first night. And I can't be too upset that people suspected Blarg enough to have him lynched but I am slightly disturbed at how quickly those votes came in to finish him off.

I was worried about Setre saying that they are a cop and then switching over to a watcher role post-Blarg's death citing confusion which is also a good cover for a imperial/hutt. But as more time goes by it would be increasingly harder to guess what random people did overnight.

Palmer also is a worry with the fact that he is a neutral role with additional info because some of his voting has been amazingly erratic. At one point in the last day he voted three different people in the space of an hour and went back and forth on a dime regarding Blarg. Although due to the fact that we only have to remove Hutt members and not just have town remaining makes me feel that it is okay to leave him alone for now at least. Of course, he could be the last undercover imperial/hutt which could also explain why nothing was found the first day and would provide good covering long-term.

QuantumBro could be lying about the whole being an armourer thing but that would be an exceptionally bold plan to expect the fact that things would get so muddled that he would be forced to "send" it to an unknown person and lie about having a shield.

So while these people could be suspicious, (Palmer>Setre>Quantum for me at least) the only way to clear them is time. But Rymuth really needs to start posting again or be replaced because the inactivity would be a problem.

Okay, sorry I missed it.

Moving on, Oceanic Air's idea of contributing is mostly questioning a nk on day 1 and he has barely posted any actual opinions on who he thinks is scum, so...

Vote: OceanicAir

My first post on day 3 was me questioning Palmer, Setre and Quantum. And I have been focusing my post on Palmer and Setre along with the night 1 kill because I think one of them are lying.

 

[AbsolutBro]

He also thought that Zipped was worthy enough to be vote after he posted that here. The main three suspects were Worthy, exmachina, and Zipped on day 1. Why not kill one of them since they would obviously be up under more scrutiny on day 2?

Well, because they would be under more scrutiny. I am guessing LoC thought swamped was suspicious because not only was her defense weak, so many jumped to defend her. Worthy, Exmac and Zipped has plenty of "they could be!" discussion, while the discussiong around swamped was more "nah, she's fine". I dont think that LoC thought she was, so he shot her to test. If he is wrong it can't be traced to him. If he was right, he claims the kill (or doesnt if he wants to keep the mafia off his back).

Basically I dont think he chose Zipped, Worthy or Exmac because there was already plenty of discussion around them at the time. Swamped was flying under the radar and I dont think LoC liked that.

 

[AbsolutBro]

Also, sorry if my posts are as frequent or useful lately. Blue shield or whatever finally got around to blocking GAF at work. I am forced to use the neogaf.net/forum workaround, and then post from my phone.

The things I do for you guys!

 

[CzarTim]

I'm trying to run through the scenario of Setre lying in my head:

Doesn't have a Role:

-Felt the need to claim when there was like 2 votes on him.
-Guessed Palmer was town, said so.
-Palmer doesn't counter this
-Blarg flips cop
-Setre comes out of the gate saying he still is cop
-Says ejawa is clean
-When pushed, clarifies he's a motion detector and was confused
-Had to guess ejawa and Palmer had no night action and weren't made aware of any action performed on them

That's the clincher for me. Would have been easier to claim tracker or watcher, he went MD. So either he got lucky, either Palmer or ejawa is lying and Setre got lucky with the other, or both are lying. All of these scenarios rely on Setre being incredibly lucky or 3 hutts colluding.

Setre does have the role, but mafia. Palmer is sk:

- Saw Palmer perform the kill action, covers for him
- Continues to claim cop after blarg flip
- Either telling the truth about ejawa or covers for him
- Clarifies role when pushed

My problem with this is sk are sometimes nk invulnerable. So why clear a sk as mafia when it could bite them in the ass later.

Setre does have the role, but mafia. Palmer is not sk:

- Everything plays out the same as above, but Palmer is telling the truth.

This is why I buy the scenario as is right now. It would be too risky for Setre to lie, and if he is not lying, Palmer is cleared n1. If the argument that Palmer is sk because he didn't act the night we had 2 nk, but could have acted the night we had one... I don't know man.

Don't get me wrong, I don't trust palmer completely. But I'd like to find a hutt before wasting a day detaining a 3p that gives us no info.

 

[CzarTim]

Killing Worthy n1 when worthy's role was semi-confirmable the next day would have been dumb.

 

[eJawa]

After thinking about it too much, I am being hit with self doubt again, so...

Unvote: QuantumBro

I am still suspicious, but my worry of voting out another possible power role currently out weighs that. I am leaning back towards looking more closely at in-actives.

 

[Palmer_v1]

 

[CzarTim]

Let’s think about this in game terms. As I posted earlier, we likely have 3 to 6 mislynches left. My guess is it’s in the middle, so 4 or 5. If Palmer is telling the truth (in that he is 3p), this will count as a mislynch. See the Hutt victory condition in swamped’s flip, it says they need to make up 50% of the game, factions are not mentioned. So if we detain palmer and he is not a hutt, we will likely have 3 or 4 MLs left. Now think of your 3 to 4 most likely Hutt suspects, are you 100% confident that at least one of those is a Hutt? Because it’s game over if we are wrong. Keep in mind we don’t have a cop and can’t rely on too many more information roles. Personally I’d rather have the extra detain to give us some breathing room. If we can get 2 hutts soon, we’ll be in a much better place to safely detain a 3p.

Now if someone thinks Palmer is a Hutt, this changes the convo quite a bit. I’d like to hear that case. Personally I think he’s mostly telling the truth. What I don’t trust completely is the idea that he knows the person he has to protect is a rebel, or maybe he knows the person is a Hutt. However this is simply countered by us not too much stock into what he says.

Palmer being sk is almost assuredly predicated on Setre being Hutt AND lying about his day one action. We’ll see tonight how many kills we have. I should note here that if QB gave a gun rather than shield (I hope not), claim your kill first thing in the morning to avoid confusion. If Setre is lying, I feel like it won’t be long until he is caught in a lie. Either he will need to implicate all his mafia friends to cover for him, or he’d need to be very lucky. Remember his role sees all actions done to and by the person, so he can get caught two ways.

I think we can stand to give QB another day or two as well.

So at this point I think we all need to go back to day one mentality. Based on people’s posts, who do you think is mafia? State your reason and vote. I noticed some similar feelings on people’s lists, hopefully we aren't all wrong. Remember that mafia benefits from flying under the radar, so those posters you are ambivalent about are a good start.

 

[Barrylocke]

Let’s think about this in game terms. As I posted earlier, we likely have 3 to 6 mislynches left. My guess is it’s in the middle, so 4 or 5. If Palmer is telling the truth (in that he is 3p), this will count as a mislynch. See the Hutt victory condition in swamped’s flip, it says they need to make up 50% of the game, factions are not mentioned. So if we detain palmer and he is not a hutt, we will likely have 3 or 4 MLs left. Now think of your 3 to 4 most likely Hutt suspects, are you 100% confident that at least one of those is a Hutt? Because it’s game over if we are wrong. Keep in mind we don’t have a cop and can’t rely on too many more information roles. Personally I’d rather have the extra detain to give us some breathing room. If we can get 2 hutts soon, we’ll be in a much better place to safely detain a 3p.

Now if someone thinks Palmer is a Hutt, this changes the convo quite a bit. I’d like to hear that case. Personally I think he’s mostly telling the truth. What I don’t trust completely is the idea that he knows the person he has to protect is a rebel, or maybe he knows the person is a Hutt. However this is simply countered by us not too much stock into what he says.

Palmer being sk is almost assuredly predicated on Setre being Hutt AND lying about his day one action. We’ll see tonight how many kills we have. I should note here that if QB gave a gun rather than shield (I hope not), claim your kill first thing in the morning to avoid confusion. If Setre is lying, I feel like it won’t be long until he is caught in a lie. Either he will need to implicate all his mafia friends to cover for him, or he’d need to be very lucky. Remember his role sees all actions done to and by the person, so he can get caught two ways.

I think we can stand to give QB another day or two as well.

So at this point I think we all need to go back to day one mentality. Based on people’s posts, who do you think is mafia? State your reason and vote. I noticed some similar feelings on people’s lists, hopefully we aren't all wrong. Remember that mafia benefits from flying under the radar, so those posters you are ambivalent about are a good start.

I've said my feelings on ejawa earlier. I need to see if my opinions on zippedpinhead have changed, and maybe look at the other people with votes to see who I'm willing to switch to. I agree with you that it shouldn't be Palmer or Quantambro today.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Remember his role sees all actions done to and by the person, so he can get caught two ways.

Where did this part come from? I thought Setre only saw if his target took any Night actions.

As for who to vote, I maintain that inactivity hurts town. Oceanic Air, Zippedinhead, Matt Attack, Redhood.

I feel like Redhood in particular has basically been skating by on a single item, easily guessed. Vote: Redhood56

 

[CzarTim]

I was slightly mistaken, he does not see what the actions are, just that they happen:

The Motion Detector, sometimes known as a variant of Reporter, is an informative role that can target a player at Night and learn if any actions were performed by or on that player, but not what the actions were or who else they involved

 

[Palmer_v1]

I was slightly mistaken, he does not see what the actions are, just that they happen:

Oh, Motion detector is a catch all name for a variety of those roles. I assumed he was a Tracker, which checks to see if the target takes any night actions. A Watcher would check to see if any actions were taken on their target.

 

[CzarTim]

Oh, Motion detector is a catch all name for a variety of those roles. I assumed he was a Tracker, which checks to see if the target takes any night actions. A Watcher would check to see if any actions were taken on their target.

I feel like since Setre asked Matty, Matty would have just said tracker or watcher if that was the case. I'm not sure why he'd be vague about it.

 

[Palmer_v1]

I'm confused about what Setre does now.

Setre, please clarify what type of Motion Detector you are.

 

[CzarTim]

This post:

So MattyG said my role is more akin to the Motion Detecor.

came 20 minutes after this one:

It's activity they perform.

So I assumed he got a PM in between to clarify.

 

[Palmer_v1]

This post:



came 20 minutes after this one:



So I assumed he got a PM in between to clarify.

So he is a Tracker, but not a Watcher.

 

[Matt Attack]

So at this point I think we all need to go back to day one mentality. Based on people’s posts, who do you think is mafia? State your reason and vote. I noticed some similar feelings on people’s lists, hopefully we aren't all wrong. Remember that mafia benefits from flying under the radar, so those posters you are ambivalent about are a good start.

Very well- I think Zippedpinhead is suspicious enough for detainment. It's not based on anything particularly solid, which is not ideal, but I think that a majority of their sparse postings (ironic coming from me, I know) lack meaningful commentary, and generally just feel kind of off to me. As such, this is, as it was on Day 1, something of a gut feeling thing, but it's a feeling I can't shake. I don't know if you guys will want to vote alongside me or not, but I'm ready to go ahead and get this off of my chest.

VOTE: Zippedpinhead

As for why I'm not voting for a certain few other people, I'll say that while I do find Palmer somewhat suspicious, the wiki page of his role equivalent helps to know that it's at least possible he's not lying about his role. Beforehand, I thought the role sounded weird enough to be completely made up. As such, I'll continue to pay attention to him- it would be a shame to detain such an active and potentially helpful poster without a really compelling reason. As for QuantumBro, I agree with Barrylocke that we should detain him just because we think having two armorers might not be balanced (even though it does sound totally OP to me ).

 

[Matt Attack]

Correction- I agree with Barrylocke that we should not detain him for that reason.

I miss editing. ;-;

 

[CzarTim]

I wrote that post weird, the first quote came second. Here's the link: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=165904454#post165904454

I'm pretty sure it's just plain a motion detector, but now I'm unsure.

 

[OceanicAir]

I still maintain that Setre could easily lie about their night actions and we haven't even gotten any confirmation from Palmer that it is impossible for him to even move at night. If he is indeed the unlyncher that so closely matches his role then he should have no nighttime role right?
Also how many people do we believe can move at night anyway, so far we have
-an alleged thief
-an alleged armourer
-x amount of mafia

So out these who would ever admit that they moved anyway? Only if QuantumBro is an armourer would we ever find out if he is telling the truth. Somebody else would have to get visited by this thief and anybody that's visited by a mafia won't survive (unless they have a shield at least). Besides defending themselves Setre hasn't posted much more towards lynching and there is still that complete about-face on day 1.

Vote: Setre

Also what's the situation with Rymuth now?

 

[redhood56]

If we are going back to day 1 mentalities then I am going to vote for
VOTE: Ejawa

Now the reason that I am doing this is when Barry put some fire under his butt he invotes QB and says that he still looks suspicious. That runs me the wrong way. And for Palmer I understand why you voted for me and I don't know what to say to make you change it but you are just wasting your vote on me.

 

[Barrylocke]

Im on mobile so I can't do a proper count, but it looks like OceanicAir, ejawa, and setre are all at 2, right?

 

[OceanicAir]

Im on mobile so I can't do a proper count, but it looks like OceanicAir, ejawa, and setre are all at 2, right?

Me, redhood, quantumbro, and zipped have 1, setre and ejawa have 2, and palmer has 3

 

[eJawa]

If we are going back to day 1 mentalities then I am going to vote for
VOTE: Ejawa

Now the reason that I am doing this is when Barry put some fire under his butt he invotes QB and says that he still looks suspicious. That runs me the wrong way. And for Palmer I understand why you voted for me and I don't know what to say to make you change it but you are just wasting your vote on me.

If I was worried about Barry's vote against me, I wouldn't have gone through with my vote in the first place. At the time it felt like the right choice, but so did my last 2 votes. Yeah, he's made some more posts against me today, but I wasn't going to not undo a vote I didn't feel strongly for anymore, just because it might make me look suspicious. Besides, at this point, anything I do looks suspicious considering my part in the last 2 votes.

At least Setre knows I wasn't up to anything fishing last night! Either that or he made a good guess to try and gain my trust... Bah, I'm sure he's ok. (Please don't be a hutt Setre)

 

[redhood56]

Unless someone has hard proof that Palmer is so then I don't see why we should vote him. He sounds beneficial to the town.

 

[Barrylocke]

Me, redhood, quantumbro, and zipped have 1, setre and ejawa have 2, and palmer has 3

Ah right, Palmer unvoted you to vote redhood.