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[KZObsessed]

If they hit their estimate, PS4 could be close to 60 million by the time NX launches.

I guess combination of price drop, PS4K, PSVR, GT Sport has them pretty confident.

 

[Wagram]

Price drop and PS4.5 are very likely this year then. It can easily do that with both.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

After that reveal? PD needs to impress greatly in the months before launch if they hope to do so.

Yeah the reveal went down like a wet fart. Never did I ever expect to have such a disappointing reaction to a new GT's graphics than I did with Sport.

 

[noobie]

You've completely read that in the way you wanted, I think he's just literally asking 'and more games coming?' like, games we haven't had confirmed as releasing in this financial year.

Thank you for a very accurate answer.. Definitely the games we know coming in 2016 holidays are big but nothing of the sort of over the top exclusives. They had similar releases last year Destiny in 2014 then Star Wars Battlefront & Call of Duty bundles in 2015 made them pretty attractive. and now this year they are expecting 2.3 million more, so they must have something to blow away the competition

 

[DieH@rd]

With what, Uncharted 4? Horizon was delayed, right?

It was "delayed" only in the tweet of a insider. But even if it is delayed, it can still land in the FY 2016 [which lasts until end of March 2017].

1st party esclusives and new hardware [PSVR+PS4K] will play a role, but 3rd party games will also boost sales. FF15 will probably attract a lot of casuals who waited on getting a console.

 

[bitbydeath]

Sony usually launch a strong game on Feb/March, we can count with Horizon being this game.

God of War usually lands in March.

 

[Footos22]

Thank you for a very accurate answer.. Definitely the games we know coming in 2016 holidays are big but nothing of the sort of over the top exclusives. They had similar releases last year Destiny in 2014 then Star Wars Battlefront & Call of Duty bundles in 2015 made them pretty attractive. and now this year they are expecting 2.3 million more, so they must have something to blow away the competition

Gran Turismo does big numbers . Its out in November. Sony tend to put out their big titles in the early year. Horizon, god of war 4 and maybe wild seem like shoe ins for this fiscal year.

 

[Sjefen]

With a new price drop and first party games rolling out, I see them reaching that goal. I also think many will buy their second PS4 (or PS4k) this year if they drop the price.

 

[travisbickle]

Sony are probably expecting GT and VR to push their numbers up.

Both could attract a new crowd to the platform. I would guess a price drop too.

 

[Mr Swine]

This is Sony we are talking about, they have the market in their palm and they won't have a problem reaching or exceeding 20m for the fiscal year.

Nintendo is not a threat and MS is doing the best they can to not fall behind anymore than they are doing other than the USA.

I believe Sony will have tons of Megatons at E3.

 

[duhmetree]

A rockstar exclusive could help move some units... Agent?

Wasn't it also revealed in 2009 with The Last Guardian? Believe.

 

[Asd202]

With Neo and a price drop this is certainly possible.

 

[goonergaz]

Maybe they think a price drop and the gap to XBO growing will mean they can hit 20m also...ie they think XBO figures will drop and they will pick up those sales?

 

[jjonez18]

Combo of Persona and FFXV should put them well over last year in Japan.
CoD, Battlefield, Titanfall for NA
GT Sport, CoD, FIFA, Titanfall, Battlefield, for Europe
All of that as well as pricecuts + revised hardware + smart bundling + exclusives + PSVR + whatever E3 has in store

I don't see why not 20m.

 

[Triggerhappytel]

but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million.. So i expect PS4 regular to be around $249 or $269. Otherwise they need to revise it down.

Based on...?

 

[Blastoise]

theres only one way I'm buying another PS4

 

[Atomski]

They are just expecting people to rebuy with the ps4k and new people to jump in and I'm sure the current model will go down in price as well.

 

[herminihildo]

Crash bandicoot confirmed.

Bloodborne 2 confirmed.

The Last of Us 2 confirmed.

Year of Dreams part 2

 

[RalchAC]

I think the biggest "if" here is when they are launching the PS4 Neo.

I think we will see a regular pricedrop to 300€/$ for the normal PS4. Which means during Black Friday and the Holiday season it should be possible to grab a PS4 for 250€/$. Last year the PS4 could be found at 300 even if the official price was higher.

If they pair a pricedrop and the new model has strong launch sales, I could see the console doing high numbers in Christmas. Especially if there are good trade-in deals where you can grab a PS4 Neo in exchange of your old PS4, which I'm sure will happen. New consoles give little to no profits to retailers and for what I've read second hand stuff has a quite higher profit margin.

 

[LowEndTorque]

There is definitely a price cut coming at E3 if they're making that estimate.

 

[pixellated_man]

mind blowing games should make that possible

Sony really just starting with the big exclusives ...can't wait for e3.

 

[Occam]

Heh, about the same amount Xbone sold since launch.

 

[goonergaz]

Based on...?

seems a flawed 'they dropped $50 and sold 17.7M so if they drop $50 again they will not get as many sales because it only got 17.7M last time'. I understand this logic, but it could be there's a magical pshycoligical figure that when hit the sales take off.

 

[goonergaz]

Heh, about the same amount Xbone sold since launch.

lol, sony poking fun maybe?

 

[Primethius]

Thinking on it more, there's plenty of big third party stuff coming out this year as well that was missing last.

Combined with Neo, VR, GT Sport and maybe another big hitting first party title (God of War?), it seems more and more likely.

 

[onQ123]

Neo about to do work.

 

[Raysod]

20 million is a bold prediction but it is do-able.

It all comes down to if Sony wants PS4 Neo to slowly replace the current PS4 model or if they plan the two models to coexists in the market.
In the first scenario when they have enough PS4 Neo produced they will heavily discount the current PS4 to clear stock (thus lots of sales). In the second scenario Sony will have two entry price points to its platform. A current PS4 priced to 250 will sell like hot cakes, and a premium Neo priced to 400-450 will do well.

My only concern is that since the Neo rumors a lot people that wanted to buy a PS4 now wait for Neo news (specs, release date and price). If Neo gets released on September/October this will mean another 3-4 months of low hardware sales for Sony, who will buy the current model when a better one is a fee months away, and this maybe put them off their 20 mil sales goal.

And we don't know what they plan for E3. If its all in on VR, will a large part of the show being VR games, that maybe will put off a lot of people that don't understand VR or don't want to buy into VR.

 

[DustyVonEric]

mind blowing games should make that possible

What?

And with this, I'm now hyped

 

[sense]

lol, sony poking fun maybe?

Arrogant Sony is back?

 

[Pancakes R Us]

Certainly makes you wonder if they have something up their sleeve for E3

Of course: Crash Bandicoot Returns 2016.

 

[LeonSPBR]

VR and Neo might make that 20 mil possible, but it's still a difficult number for PS4 to get.

 

[MoeDabs]

Neo will sell to those who are ready to shell out base price. Its not going to bring new customers in the line.. You expand your market only by lowering the price
So i am saying are there 20 million people, who are ready to spend atleast $299... i have some reservation on it..

20 million new ps4 owners just in this year?
Don't see that happening unless they do a craaaazy price cut

20 Million PS4's. Not 20 Million New Owners. They will of course be targeting existing owners with the PS4K. Not sure why you two think otherwise...

 

[TheOfficeMut]

Who is Demonite and why is everyone responding to him/her?

 

[Kenzodielocke]

Who is Demonite and why is everyone responding to him/her?

He's a beast.

 

[krimsoncharge]

Bold prediction. Apart from neo launching this year, i think they'll also launch a rebranded ps4 slim/mini with an remodelled exterior chassis ( similar to neo) at a lower price.

 

[McHuj]

I think it all depends on price. At 249, I think it's doable. My guess is that they could have already dropped the price lower, but didn't need to.

 

[On Demand]

FFXV
Persona 5
COD bundle
GT sport
Price cut
PSVR
PS4K
Horizon
GoW4

Just a couple things that will increase sales through March 2017.

 

[Nightengale]

He's a beast.

A beast of horizon.

 

[DustyVonEric]

Who is Demonite and why is everyone responding to him/her?

He's a beast.

The be

Spoiler

a

st response you could have given

He's the truth when it comes to game reveals. The big one for most of us came when months prior to Bloodborne, Demon dropped subtle hints in numerous posts - all containing the use of the word "beast" - about an upcoming game. The game hinted at was eventually revealed as "Project Beast", Bloodborne's alias in development.

Going back to read his posts was mind blowing at the time like "Whoa... !"

Reminds me of Black Widow saying the first rule of going on the run is don't run. Walk; act casual. Dude hid in plain sight on us. LOL

 

[GHG]

Who is Demonite and why is everyone responding to him/her?

This. Does he work for Sony?

Edit: nevermind answer above.

 

[Dragon Puncher]

Doesn't seem that far left field. With PS4K the regular PS4 is probably going to get a price cut + there's Playstation VR and a bunch of heavy hitters game wise.

Compared to previous cycles it makes sense. that next year is the peak of PS4 sales, with a slow decent starting from 2018.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I can see it. PS Neo, price drop, major first and third party games.

Gravity Rush 2 will help do that ��

Yes!

mind blowing games should make that possible

!

He's a beast.

lol

 

[MacTag]

how much did the PS2/Wii sell in their peak years?

Previous peak years over 20m for all systems:

PS1 FY98: 21,600,000*

PS2 FY02: 22,520,000*
PS2 FY03: 20,100,000*

NDS FY07: 23,560,000
NDS FY08: 30,310,000
NDS FY09: 31,180,000
NDS FY10: 27,110,000

WII FY09: 25,950,000
WII FY10: 20,530,000

*production shipments

 

[3rdamention]

but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million.. So i expect PS4 regular to be around $249 or $269. Otherwise they need to revise it down.

Price Cuts have diminishing returns, so Sony needs to simply have a bigger price cut? Is that what you are saying?

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Seems like Sony has a lot of third party bundles up their sleeve too. Maybe Destiny 2 and the New Star Wars. Both those game we have seen sell PS4 by the millions. This + PS4 Neo + Price Cut + PSVR + Mind Blowing Games. We have a winner.

 

[noobie]

Price Cuts have diminishing returns, so Sony needs to simply have a bigger price cut? Is that what you are saying?

Yes..

But it will be interesting if the Second price cut ($100) of PS4 is bigger than the first price cut ($50)

 

[BahamutPT]

Don't forget that even if just 10% of current PS4 owners upgrade to Neo - and I think that's a doable number - they'll already have around 4 million new sales.

 

[Curufinwe]

but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million..

$349 to $299 is a bigger price cut in percentage terms than $399 to $349. And $299 looks a lot more appealing to the mass market than $349.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

299 PS4 and they expect a bunch of current PS4 owners to upgrade to NEO.

 

[mejin]

God of War 4, Horizon & FFVII Remake early 2017 confirmed.